Volatility Squeeze Breakout Strategy

Author: ChaoZhang, Date: 2023-11-10 11:03:25


The Volatility Squeeze Breakout Strategy is a trading system that integrates Bollinger Bands (BB) and Keltner Channel (KC) to capture major market movements by monitoring breakout and trend signals. This strategy focuses on periods of market compression (low volatility) and subsequent breakouts (high volatility), aiming to enter the market before the start of major price movements.

Strategy Principle

The core of the Volatility Squeeze Breakout Strategy is to identify decreases and increases in market volatility. Bollinger Bands are formed by calculating the standard deviation of prices, while the Keltner Channel is based on the Average True Range (ATR). When the Bollinger Bands compress within the Keltner Channel, it indicates a reduction in market volatility, potentially leading to a significant price breakout. The strategy generates trading signals by checking whether the Bollinger Bands are within the Keltner Channel and whether the price breaks above or below the Bollinger Bands’ limits. Additionally, the strategy considers the alignment of Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) to enhance the validity of signals.

Advantages of the Strategy

The primary advantage of this strategy is its combination of volatility and trend indicators, providing a comprehensive market perspective. By integrating Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel, the strategy can effectively identify potential large market movements. Moreover, the use of EMA trend alignment can help confirm market direction and reduce false signals.

Risks of the Strategy

The main risk of the Volatility Squeeze Breakout Strategy lies in false breakout signals and market uncertainty. Under conditions of high volatility, the Bollinger Bands might be breached frequently, leading to misleading signals. Moreover, if the market trend is not correctly identified, the strategy may generate unfavorable trades. To mitigate these risks, the strategy can be optimized by adjusting parameters, incorporating additional indicators, or adopting stricter entry conditions.

Optimization Directions

This strategy can be optimized in several ways. Firstly, adjusting the

parameters of the Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel to adapt to different market conditions. Secondly, introducing additional technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for additional trade signal confirmation. Finally, considering combining this strategy with other types of trading systems to form a more comprehensive and diversified trading framework.


The Volatility Squeeze Breakout Strategy is a powerful and flexible trading system that combines the strengths of Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel. By monitoring market volatility and trend signals, it can effectively identify major market movements. While the strategy carries certain risks, these can be significantly mitigated through proper optimization and parameter adjustments. Overall, this strategy provides a unique perspective for capturing and capitalizing on major market trends and breakouts.

start: 2023-01-01 00:00:00
end: 2023-11-09 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © Bishnu103

strategy(title="Squeeze Breakout using BB and KC [v1.0][Bishnu103]",shorttitle="BB BREAKOUT",overlay=true,calc_on_every_tick=true)

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// input variables
bbLength            = input(title="BB Length", minval=1, defval=20)
bbStdDev            = input(title="BB StdDev", minval=1, defval=2)
kcLength            = input(title="KC Length", minval=1, defval=20)
kcMult              = input(title="KC Mult", defval=1.5)
atrLength           = input(title="ATR Length", minval=1, defval=20)
entry_distance      = input(title="Entry distance from alert", minval=1, maxval=10, defval=10)
bb_squeeze_switch   = input(title="BB Squeeze Check", type=input.bool, defval=true)
bb_squeeze_width    = input(title="BB Squeeze Width", minval=1.0, defval=3.0)
bb_in_kc_switch     = input(title="BB within KC Check", type=input.bool, defval=false)
ema_trend_switch    = input(title="EMA Trend Check", type=input.bool, defval=false)
show_bb_switch      = input(title="Show BB", type=input.bool, defval=true)
show_kc_switch      = input(title="Show KC", type=input.bool, defval=true)
show_8ema_switch    = input(title="Show 8EMA", type=input.bool, defval=true)
show_emas_switch    = input(title="Show EMAs", type=input.bool, defval=false)

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// global variables
closed_above_bb     = false
closed_below_bb     = false

// variable values available across candles
var entry_price     = 0.0  
var sl_price        = 0.0
var exit_price_8ema = 0.0
var candle_count    = 0

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// function to return bollinger band values based on candle poition passed 
getBB(pos) =>
    float basis = sma(close[pos], bbLength)
    float dev = bbStdDev * stdev(close[pos], bbLength)
    [basis, basis + dev, basis - dev]

// function to return Keltner Channel values based on candle poition passed 
getKC(pos) => 
    mKC     = ema(close[pos],kcLength)
    range   = kcMult * atr(atrLength)[pos]
    uKC     = mKC + range
    lKC     = mKC - range

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// strategy
// get current bb value
[mBB_0,uBB_0,lBB_0] = getBB(0)
[mBB_1,uBB_1,lBB_1] = getBB(1)

// if a candle closes above bb and previous candle closed inside bb then it's a bullish signal
if close[0] > uBB_0
    closed_above_bb := true
    entry_price     := high[0]

// if a candle closes above bb and previous candle closed inside bb then it's a bullish signal
if close[0] < lBB_0
    closed_below_bb := true
    entry_price     := low[0]

// check if BB is in squeeze
bb_in_squeeze = bb_squeeze_switch ? ((uBB_1 - lBB_1) < (atr(20)[1] * bb_squeeze_width)) : true

// 6 candle's bb prior to the alert candle, are within keltner channel on either upper side of the bands or on lower side of the bands
// bb
[mBB_2,uBB_2,lBB_2] = getBB(2)
[mBB_3,uBB_3,lBB_3] = getBB(3)
[mBB_4,uBB_4,lBB_4] = getBB(4)
[mBB_5,uBB_5,lBB_5] = getBB(5)
[mBB_6,uBB_6,lBB_6] = getBB(6)
// kc
[mKC_1,uKC_1,lKC_1] = getKC(1)
[mKC_2,uKC_2,lKC_2] = getKC(2)
[mKC_3,uKC_3,lKC_3] = getKC(3)
[mKC_4,uKC_4,lKC_4] = getKC(4)
[mKC_5,uKC_5,lKC_5] = getKC(5)
[mKC_6,uKC_6,lKC_6] = getKC(6)
// check if either side 6 candle's bb are inside kc
lower_squeeze_is_good = uBB_1   < uKC_1 and uBB_2 < uKC_2 and uBB_3 < uKC_3 and uBB_4 < uKC_4 and uBB_5 < uKC_5 and uBB_6 < uKC_6
upper_squeeze_is_good = lBB_1   > lKC_1 and lBB_2 > lKC_2 and lBB_3 > lKC_3 and lBB_4 > lKC_4 and lBB_5 > lKC_5 and lBB_6 > lKC_6
squeeze_is_good                 = bb_in_kc_switch ? (upper_squeeze_is_good or lower_squeeze_is_good) : true

// EMAs (8, 21, 34, 55, 89) should be aligned in sequence
ema_8               = ema(close,8)
ema_21              = ema(close,21)
ema_34              = ema(close,34)
ema_55              = ema(close,55)
ema_89              = ema(close,89)
ema_trend_check1    = ema_trend_switch and closed_above_bb and ema_8 > ema_21 and ema_21 > ema_34 and ema_34 > ema_55 and ema_55 > ema_89
ema_trend_check2    = ema_trend_switch and closed_below_bb and ema_8 < ema_21 and ema_21 < ema_34 and ema_34 < ema_55 and ema_55 < ema_89
ema_trend_check     = ema_trend_switch ? (ema_trend_check1 or ema_trend_check2) : true

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// entry conditions 
long_entry   = closed_above_bb and bb_in_squeeze and squeeze_is_good and ema_trend_check
short_entry  = closed_below_bb and bb_in_squeeze and squeeze_is_good and ema_trend_check

candle_count := candle_count + 1
if long_entry or short_entry
    candle_count := 0
if long_entry or short_entry
    exit_price_8ema := na

if long_entry or short_entry
    sl_price := mBB_0

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// exit conditions
// long trade - a candle closes below 8ema and in next candle price crosses low of previous candle
// short trade - a candle closes above 8ema and in next candle price crosses high of previous candle
long_exit_8ema    = strategy.position_size > 0 and crossunder(close,ema(close,8))
short_exit_8ema   = strategy.position_size < 0 and crossover(close,ema(close,8))

if long_exit_8ema
    exit_price_8ema := low

if short_exit_8ema
    exit_price_8ema := high

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// position sizing
price = if close[0] > 25000
    price = close[0]

qty = 25000/price

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// entry
if long_entry
    strategy.entry("BUY", strategy.long, qty, stop=entry_price, comment="BUY @ "+ tostring(entry_price)) 

if short_entry and candle_count < 11
    strategy.entry("SELL", strategy.short, qty, stop=entry_price, comment="SELL @ "+ tostring(entry_price))

if candle_count > entry_distance 

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// exit
if strategy.position_size > 0 and long_exit_8ema
    strategy.exit("EXIT using 8EMA", "BUY", stop=exit_price_8ema, comment="EXIT @ "+ tostring(exit_price_8ema))

if strategy.position_size < 0 and short_exit_8ema
    strategy.exit("EXIT using 8EMA", "SELL", stop=exit_price_8ema, comment="EXIT @ "+ tostring(exit_price_8ema))

// ***********************************************************************************************************************
// plots    
// plot BB
[mBBp,uBBp,lBBp] = getBB(0)
p_mBB = plot(show_bb_switch ? mBBp : na, color=color.teal)
p_uBB = plot(show_bb_switch ? uBBp : na, color=color.teal)
p_lBB = plot(show_bb_switch ? lBBp : na, color=color.teal)

// plot KC
[mKCp,uKCp,lKCp] = getKC(0)
p_uKC = plot(show_kc_switch ? uKCp : na, color=color.red)
p_lKC = plot(show_kc_switch ? lKCp : na, color=color.red)

// plot 8 ema

// plot EMAs
plot(show_emas_switch ? ema_8  : na, color=color.green)
plot(show_emas_switch ? ema_21 : na, color=color.lime)
plot(show_emas_switch ? ema_34 : na, color=color.maroon)
plot(show_emas_switch ? ema_55 : na, color=color.orange)
plot(show_emas_switch ? ema_89 : na, color=color.purple)