Strategie für eine Mehrstendenz-Kreuzung

Schriftsteller:ChaoZhang, Datum: 21.09.2023
Tags:

Übersicht

Diese Strategie erzeugt Handelssignale, indem sie schnelle und langsame Trendindikatoren auswählt und lang geht, wenn der schnelle Trend den langsamen Trend überschreitet, und kurz geht, wenn der schnelle Trend den langsamen Trend überschreitet.

Strategie Logik

Kern der Strategie ist die Auswahl und Kombination von schnellen und langsamen Trendindikatoren:

FastTrend = User selected fast trend indicator
SlowTrend = User selected slow trend indicator

Der schnelle Trend umfasst SMA, EMA, KAMA und 20+ Trend-Algorithmen.

Handelssignale werden erzeugt, indem die Beziehung zwischen schnellen und langsamen Trends beurteilt wird:

if FastTrend > SlowTrend:
    Go long
if FastTrend < SlowTrend:
    Close position

Das lange Signal wird ausgelöst, wenn der schnelle Trend über den langsamen Trend geht. Das kurze Signal wird ausgelöst, wenn der schnelle Trend unter dem langsamen Trend geht.

Analyse der Vorteile

  • Einbezieht mehr als 20 Indikatoren für flexible Kombinationen
  • Kann Trends über verschiedene Zeitrahmen hinweg erkennen
  • Parameter können optimiert werden, um die beste Kombination zu finden
  • Kann sowohl lang als auch kurz gehen, um Trends in beide Richtungen zu erfassen
  • Stop-Loss kann zur Risikokontrolle verwendet werden

Risikoanalyse

  • Eine falsche Auswahl des schnellen/langsamen Trends kann zu einem Strategieversagen führen
  • Trendindikatoren haben Verzögerungen, können beste Einstiegspunkte verpassen
  • Anfällig für die Erzeugung falscher Signale auf unterschiedlichen Märkten
  • Benötigen Parameteroptimierung, um die besten Indikatorkombinationen zu finden
  • Nicht in der Lage, Verluste schnell zu reduzieren, Risiken, dass Verluste laufen

Optimierungsrichtlinien

Die Strategie kann in folgenden Bereichen verbessert werden:

  1. Schnelle/langsame Trends und Parameter anpassen, um optimale Kombinationen zu finden.

  2. Fügen Sie Filter wie Lautstärke hinzu, um falsche Signale während der Marktbewegung zu vermeiden.

  3. Einbeziehen Sie Stop-Loss-Strategien wie Trailing Stop-Loss, um Einzelhandelsverluste zu kontrollieren.

  4. Kombiniert mit anderen Indikatoren wie MACD, KDJ, um die Stabilität zu verbessern.

  5. Optimieren Sie den Eintrittszeitpunkt, verlassen Sie sich nicht nur auf die Trendüberschneidung.

Zusammenfassung

Die Multi-Trend-Crossover-Strategie identifiziert Trendveränderungen über Zeitrahmen hinweg, indem sie schnelle und langsame Trends kombiniert. Aber sie ist empfindlich auf Marktschwankungen und funktioniert nur gut in offensichtlichen Trendmärkten. Wir brauchen Methoden wie Parameteroptimierung und Risikomanagement, um die Stabilität und Rentabilität der Strategie zu verbessern.

[/trans]


/*backtest
start: 2023-08-21 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-20 00:00:00
period: 3h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// @version=5
// Author = TradeAutomation


strategy(title="Multi Trend Cross Strategy Template", shorttitle="Multi Trend Cross Strategy", process_orders_on_close=true, overlay=true, commission_type=strategy.commission.cash_per_contract, commission_value=0.0035, initial_capital = 1000000, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=100)


// Backtest Date Range Inputs // 
StartTime = input(defval=timestamp('01 Jan 2000 05:00 +0000'), group="Date Range", title='Start Time')
EndTime = input(defval=timestamp('01 Jan 2099 00:00 +0000'), group="Date Range", title='End Time')
InDateRange = true

// Trend Selector //
TrendSelectorInput = input.string(title="Fast Trend Selector", defval="EMA", group="Core Settings", options=["ALMA", "DEMA", "DSMA", "EMA", "HMA", "JMA", "KAMA", "Linear Regression (LSMA)", "RMA", "SMA", "SMMA", "Price Source", "TEMA", "TMA", "VAMA", "VIDYA", "VMA", "VWMA", "WMA", "WWMA", "ZLEMA"], tooltip="Select your fast trend")
TrendSelectorInput2 = input.string(title="Slow Trend Selector", defval="EMA", group="Core Settings", options=["ALMA", "DEMA", "DSMA", "EMA", "HMA", "JMA", "KAMA", "Linear Regression (LSMA)", "RMA", "SMA", "SMMA", "Price Source", "TEMA", "TMA", "VAMA", "VIDYA", "VMA", "VWMA", "WMA", "WWMA", "ZLEMA"], tooltip="Select your slow trend")
src = input.source(close, "Price Source", group="Core Settings", tooltip="This is the price source being used for the trends to calculate based on")
length = input.int(10, "Fast Trend Length", group="Core Settings", step=5, tooltip="A long is entered when the selected fast trend crosses over the selected slow trend")
length2 = input.int(200, "Slow Trend Length", group="Core Settings", step=5, tooltip="A long is entered when the selected fast trend crosses over the selected slow trend")
LineWidth = input.int(1, "Line Width", group="Core Settings", tooltip="This is the width of the line plotted that represents the selected trend")

// Individual Moving Average / Regression Setting //
AlmaOffset = input.float(0.85, "ALMA Offset", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when ALMA is selected")
AlmaSigma = input.float(6, "ALMA Sigma", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when ALMA is selected")
ATRFactor = input.float(3, "ATR Multiplier For SuperTrend", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when SuperTrend is selected")
ATRLength = input.int(12, "ATR Length For SuperTrend", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when SuperTrend is selected")
ssfLength = input.int(20, "DSMA Super Smoother Filter Length", minval=1, tooltip="This only applies when EDSMA is selected", group="Individual Trend Settings")
ssfPoles = input.int(2, "DSMA Super Smoother Filter Poles", options=[2, 3], tooltip="This only applies when EDSMA is selected", group="Individual Trend Settings")
JMApower = input.int(2, "JMA Power Parameter", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when JMA is selected")
phase = input.int(-45, title="JMA Phase Parameter", step=10, minval=-110, maxval=110, group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when JMA is selected")
KamaAlpha = input.float(3, "KAMA's Alpha", minval=1,step=0.5, group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when KAMA is selected")
LinRegOffset = input.int(0, "Linear Regression Offset", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when Linear Regression is selected")
VAMALookback =input.int(12, "VAMA Volatility lookback", group="Individual Trend Settings", tooltip="This only applies when VAMA is selected")


// Trend Indicators With Library Functions //
ALMA = ta.alma(src, length, AlmaOffset, AlmaSigma) 
EMA = ta.ema(src, length)
HMA = ta.hma(src, length)
LinReg = ta.linreg(src, length, LinRegOffset)
RMA = ta.rma(src, length)
SMA = ta.sma(src, length)
VWMA = ta.vwma(src, length)
WMA = ta.wma(src, length)

ALMA2 = ta.alma(src, length2, AlmaOffset, AlmaSigma) 
EMA2 = ta.ema(src, length2)
HMA2 = ta.hma(src, length2)
LinReg2 = ta.linreg(src, length2, LinRegOffset)
RMA2 = ta.rma(src, length2)
SMA2 = ta.sma(src, length2)
VWMA2 = ta.vwma(src, length2)
WMA2 = ta.wma(src, length2)

// Additional Trend Indicators Built In And/Or Open Sourced //
//DEMA
de1 = ta.ema(src, length)
de2 = ta.ema(de1, length)
DEMA = 2 * de1 - de2

de3 = ta.ema(src, length2)
de4 = ta.ema(de3, length2)
DEMA2 = 2 * de3 - de4

// Ehlers Deviation-Scaled Moving Average - DSMA [Everget]
PI = 2 * math.asin(1)
get2PoleSSF(src, length) =>
    arg = math.sqrt(2) * PI / length
    a1 = math.exp(-arg)
    b1 = 2 * a1 * math.cos(arg)
    c2 = b1
    c3 = -math.pow(a1, 2)
    c1 = 1 - c2 - c3
    var ssf = 0.0
    ssf := c1 * src + c2 * nz(ssf[1]) + c3 * nz(ssf[2])
get3PoleSSF(src, length) =>
    arg = PI / length
    a1 = math.exp(-arg)
    b1 = 2 * a1 * math.cos(1.738 * arg)
    c1 = math.pow(a1, 2)
    coef2 = b1 + c1
    coef3 = -(c1 + b1 * c1)
    coef4 = math.pow(c1, 2)
    coef1 = 1 - coef2 - coef3 - coef4
    var ssf = 0.0
    ssf := coef1 * src + coef2 * nz(ssf[1]) + coef3 * nz(ssf[2]) + coef4 * nz(ssf[3])
zeros = src - nz(src[2])
avgZeros = (zeros + zeros[1]) / 2
// Ehlers Super Smoother Filter 
ssf = ssfPoles == 2
     ? get2PoleSSF(avgZeros, ssfLength)
     : get3PoleSSF(avgZeros, ssfLength)
// Rescale filter in terms of Standard Deviations
stdev = ta.stdev(ssf, length)
scaledFilter = stdev != 0
     ? ssf / stdev
     : 0
alpha1 = 5 * math.abs(scaledFilter) / length
EDSMA = 0.0
EDSMA := alpha1 * src + (1 - alpha1) * nz(EDSMA[1])

get2PoleSSF2(src, length2) =>
    arg = math.sqrt(2) * PI / length2
    a1 = math.exp(-arg)
    b1 = 2 * a1 * math.cos(arg)
    c2 = b1
    c3 = -math.pow(a1, 2)
    c1 = 1 - c2 - c3
    var ssf2 = 0.0
    ssf2 := c1 * src + c2 * nz(ssf2[1]) + c3 * nz(ssf2[2])
get3PoleSSF2(src, length2) =>
    arg = PI / length2
    a1 = math.exp(-arg)
    b1 = 2 * a1 * math.cos(1.738 * arg)
    c1 = math.pow(a1, 2)
    coef2 = b1 + c1
    coef3 = -(c1 + b1 * c1)
    coef4 = math.pow(c1, 2)
    coef1 = 1 - coef2 - coef3 - coef4
    var ssf2 = 0.0
    ssf2 := coef1 * src + coef2 * nz(ssf2[1]) + coef3 * nz(ssf2[2]) + coef4 * nz(ssf2[3])
// Ehlers Super Smoother Filter 
ssf2 = ssfPoles == 2
     ? get2PoleSSF2(avgZeros, ssfLength)
     : get3PoleSSF2(avgZeros, ssfLength)
// Rescale filter in terms of Standard Deviations
stdev2 = ta.stdev(ssf2, length2)
scaledFilter2 = stdev2 != 0
     ? ssf2 / stdev2
     : 0
alpha12 = 5 * math.abs(scaledFilter2) / length2
EDSMA2 = 0.0
EDSMA2 := alpha12 * src + (1 - alpha12) * nz(EDSMA2[1])

//JMA [Everget]
phaseRatio = phase < -100 ? 0.5 : phase > 100 ? 2.5 : phase / 100 + 1.5
beta = 0.45 * (length - 1) / (0.45 * (length - 1) + 2)
alpha = math.pow(beta, JMApower)
var JMA = 0.0
var e0 = 0.0
e0 := (1 - alpha) * src + alpha * nz(e0[1])
var e1 = 0.0
e1 := (src - e0) * (1 - beta) + beta * nz(e1[1])
var e2 = 0.0
e2 := (e0 + phaseRatio * e1 - nz(JMA[1])) * math.pow(1 - alpha, 2) + math.pow(alpha, 2) * nz(e2[1])
JMA := e2 + nz(JMA[1])

beta2 = 0.45 * (length2 - 1) / (0.45 * (length2 - 1) + 2)
alpha2 = math.pow(beta2, JMApower)
var JMA2 = 0.0
var e02 = 0.0
e02 := (1 - alpha2) * src + alpha2 * nz(e02[1])
var e12 = 0.0
e12 := (src - e02) * (1 - beta2) + beta2 * nz(e12[1])
var e22 = 0.0
e22 := (e02 + phaseRatio * e12 - nz(JMA2[1])) * math.pow(1 - alpha2, 2) + math.pow(alpha2, 2) * nz(e22[1])
JMA2 := e22 + nz(JMA2[1])

//KAMA [Everget]
var KAMA = 0.0
fastAlpha = 2.0 / (KamaAlpha + 1)
slowAlpha = 2.0 / 31
momentum = math.abs(ta.change(src, length))
volatility = math.sum(math.abs(ta.change(src)), length)
efficiencyRatio = volatility != 0 ? momentum / volatility : 0
smoothingConstant = math.pow((efficiencyRatio * (fastAlpha - slowAlpha)) + slowAlpha, 2)
KAMA := nz(KAMA[1], src) + smoothingConstant * (src - nz(KAMA[1], src))

var KAMA2 = 0.0
momentum2 = math.abs(ta.change(src, length2))
volatility2 = math.sum(math.abs(ta.change(src)), length2)
efficiencyRatio2 = volatility2 != 0 ? momentum2 / volatility2 : 0
smoothingConstant2 = math.pow((efficiencyRatio2 * (fastAlpha - slowAlpha)) + slowAlpha, 2)
KAMA2 := nz(KAMA2[1], src) + smoothingConstant2 * (src - nz(KAMA2[1], src))

//SMMA
var SMMA = 0.0
SMMA := na(SMMA[1]) ? ta.sma(src, length) : (SMMA[1] * (length - 1) + src) / length

var SMMA2 = 0.0
SMMA2 := na(SMMA2[1]) ? ta.sma(src, length2) : (SMMA2[1] * (length2 - 1) + src) / length2

//TEMA
t1 = ta.ema(src, length)
t2 = ta.ema(t1, length)
t3 = ta.ema(t2, length)
TEMA = 3 * (t1 - t2) + t3

t12 = ta.ema(src, length2)
t22 = ta.ema(t12, length2)
t32 = ta.ema(t22, length2)
TEMA2 = 3 * (t12 - t22) + t32

//TMA
TMA = ta.sma(ta.sma(src, math.ceil(length / 2)), math.floor(length / 2) + 1)

TMA2 = ta.sma(ta.sma(src, math.ceil(length2 / 2)), math.floor(length2 / 2) + 1)

//VAMA [Duyck]
mid=ta.ema(src,length)
dev=src-mid
vol_up=ta.highest(dev,VAMALookback)
vol_down=ta.lowest(dev,VAMALookback)
VAMA = mid+math.avg(vol_up,vol_down)

mid2=ta.ema(src,length2)
dev2=src-mid2
vol_up2=ta.highest(dev2,VAMALookback)
vol_down2=ta.lowest(dev2,VAMALookback)
VAMA2 = mid2+math.avg(vol_up2,vol_down2)

//VIDYA [KivancOzbilgic]
var VIDYA=0.0
VMAalpha=2/(length+1)
ud1=src>src[1] ? src-src[1] : 0
dd1=src<src[1] ? src[1]-src : 0
UD=math.sum(ud1,9)
DD=math.sum(dd1,9)
CMO=nz((UD-DD)/(UD+DD))
VIDYA := na(VIDYA[1]) ? ta.sma(src, length) : nz(VMAalpha*math.abs(CMO)*src)+(1-VMAalpha*math.abs(CMO))*nz(VIDYA[1])

var VIDYA2=0.0
VMAalpha2=2/(length2+1)
ud12=src>src[1] ? src-src[1] : 0
dd12=src<src[1] ? src[1]-src : 0
UD2=math.sum(ud12,9)
DD2=math.sum(dd12,9)
CMO2=nz((UD2-DD2)/(UD2+DD2))
VIDYA2 := na(VIDYA2[1]) ? ta.sma(src, length2) : nz(VMAalpha2*math.abs(CMO2)*src)+(1-VMAalpha2*math.abs(CMO2))*nz(VIDYA2[1])

//VMA [LazyBear]
sc = 1/length
pdm = math.max((src - src[1]), 0)
mdm = math.max((src[1] - src), 0)
var pdmS = 0.0
var mdmS = 0.0
pdmS := ((1 - sc)*nz(pdmS[1]) + sc*pdm)
mdmS := ((1 - sc)*nz(mdmS[1]) + sc*mdm)
s = pdmS + mdmS
pdi = pdmS/s
mdi = mdmS/s
var pdiS = 0.0
var mdiS = 0.0
pdiS := ((1 - sc)*nz(pdiS[1]) + sc*pdi)
mdiS := ((1 - sc)*nz(mdiS[1]) + sc*mdi)
d = math.abs(pdiS - mdiS)
s1 = pdiS + mdiS
var iS = 0.0
iS := ((1 - sc)*nz(iS[1]) + sc*d/s1)
hhv = ta.highest(iS, length) 
llv = ta.lowest(iS, length) 
d1 = hhv - llv
vi = (iS - llv)/d1
var VMA=0.0
VMA := na(VMA[1]) ? ta.sma(src, length) : sc*vi*src + (1 - sc*vi)*nz(VMA[1])

sc2 = 1/length2
pdm2 = math.max((src - src[1]), 0)
mdm2 = math.max((src[1] - src), 0)
var pdmS2 = 0.0
var mdmS2 = 0.0
pdmS2 := ((1 - sc2)*nz(pdmS2[1]) + sc2*pdm2)
mdmS2 := ((1 - sc2)*nz(mdmS2[1]) + sc2*mdm2)
s2 = pdmS2 + mdmS2
pdi2 = pdmS2/s2
mdi2 = mdmS2/s2
var pdiS2 = 0.0
var mdiS2 = 0.0
pdiS2 := ((1 - sc2)*nz(pdiS2[1]) + sc2*pdi2)
mdiS2 := ((1 - sc2)*nz(mdiS2[1]) + sc2*mdi2)
d2 = math.abs(pdiS2 - mdiS2)
s12 = pdiS2 + mdiS2
var iS2 = 0.0
iS2 := ((1 - sc2)*nz(iS2[1]) + sc2*d2/s12)
hhv2 = ta.highest(iS2, length) 
llv2 = ta.lowest(iS2, length) 
d12 = hhv2 - llv2
vi2 = (iS2 - llv2)/d12
var VMA2=0.0
VMA2 := na(VMA2[1]) ? ta.sma(src, length2) : sc2*vi2*src + (1 - sc2*vi2)*nz(VMA2[1])

//WWMA
var WWMA=0.0
WWMA := (1/length)*src + (1-(1/length))*nz(WWMA[1])

var WWMA2=0.0
WWMA2 := (1/length2)*src + (1-(1/length2))*nz(WWMA2[1])

//Zero Lag EMA [KivancOzbilgic]
EMA1a = ta.ema(src,length)
EMA2a = ta.ema(EMA1a,length)
Diff = EMA1a - EMA2a
ZLEMA = EMA1a + Diff

EMA12 = ta.ema(src,length2)
EMA22 = ta.ema(EMA12,length2)
Diff2 = EMA12 - EMA22
ZLEMA2 = EMA12 + Diff2

// Trend Mapping and Plotting //
FastTrend = TrendSelectorInput == "ALMA" ? ALMA : TrendSelectorInput == "DEMA" ? DEMA : TrendSelectorInput == "DSMA" ? EDSMA : TrendSelectorInput == "EMA" ? EMA : TrendSelectorInput == "HMA" ? HMA : TrendSelectorInput == "JMA" ? JMA : TrendSelectorInput == "KAMA" ? KAMA : TrendSelectorInput == "Linear Regression (LSMA)" ? LinReg : TrendSelectorInput == "RMA" ? RMA : TrendSelectorInput == "SMA" ? SMA : TrendSelectorInput == "SMMA" ? SMMA : TrendSelectorInput == "Price Source" ? src : TrendSelectorInput == "TEMA" ? TEMA : TrendSelectorInput == "TMA" ? TMA : TrendSelectorInput == "VAMA" ? VAMA : TrendSelectorInput == "VIDYA" ? VIDYA : TrendSelectorInput == "VMA" ? VMA : TrendSelectorInput == "VWMA" ? VWMA : TrendSelectorInput == "WMA" ? WMA : TrendSelectorInput == "WWMA" ? WWMA : TrendSelectorInput == "ZLEMA" ? ZLEMA : SMA
SlowTrend = TrendSelectorInput2 == "ALMA" ? ALMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "DEMA" ? DEMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "DSMA" ? EDSMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "EMA" ? EMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "HMA" ? HMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "JMA" ? JMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "KAMA" ? KAMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "Linear Regression (LSMA)" ? LinReg2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "RMA" ? RMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "SMA" ? SMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "SMMA" ? SMMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "Price Source" ? src : TrendSelectorInput2 == "TEMA" ? TEMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "TMA" ? TMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "VAMA" ? VAMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "VIDYA" ? VIDYA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "VMA" ? VMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "VWMA" ? VWMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "WMA" ? WMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "WWMA" ? WWMA2 : TrendSelectorInput2 == "ZLEMA" ? ZLEMA2 : SMA2
plot(FastTrend, color=color.green, linewidth=LineWidth)
plot(SlowTrend, color=color.red, linewidth=LineWidth)

//Short & Long Options
Long = input.bool(true, "Model Long Trades", group="Core Settings")
Short = input.bool(false, "Model Short Trades", group="Core Settings")

// Entry & Exit Functions //
if (InDateRange and Long==true and FastTrend>SlowTrend)
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, alert_message="Long")

if (InDateRange and Long==true and FastTrend<SlowTrend)
    strategy.close("Long", alert_message="Close Long")

if (InDateRange and Short==true and FastTrend<SlowTrend)
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, alert_message="Short")

if (InDateRange and Short==true and FastTrend>SlowTrend)
    strategy.close("Short", alert_message="Cover Short")  

if (not InDateRange)
    strategy.close_all(alert_message="End of Date Range")
    

Mehr