Strategi perdagangan pembalikan gradien

Penulis:ChaoZhangTanggal: 2023-10-09 15:10:39
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Gambaran umum

Strategi Trading Reversal Gradient adalah strategi yang mengikuti tren yang menghasilkan sinyal perdagangan menggunakan sistem crossover rata-rata bergerak. Strategi ini mendeteksi arah tren harga saat ini dengan menghitung rata-rata bergerak dari periode yang berbeda dan memasuki perdagangan panjang atau pendek pada titik pembalikan tren. Strategi ini bertujuan untuk menangkap tren jangka menengah hingga panjang dan perdagangan ketika tren berbalik.

Logika Strategi

Strategi ini menghitung dua rata-rata bergerak, satu periode MA yang lebih lama bertindak sebagai garis dasar, dan yang lain periode MA yang lebih pendek melintasi menghasilkan sinyal perdagangan.

  1. Menghitung MA garis dasar dengan parameter periode len1, yang mewakili tren jangka panjang.

  2. Menghitung MA sinyal dengan periode len2, yang mewakili tren jangka pendek, len2 < len1.

  3. Ketika MA yang lebih pendek menyeberangi MA yang lebih panjang dari atas, pergi pendek, menunjukkan pembalikan tren dan harga mungkin turun.

  4. Ketika MA yang lebih pendek melintasi MA yang lebih panjang dari bawah, pergi panjang, menunjukkan pembalikan tren dan harga mungkin naik.

  5. Ketika harga bergerak kembali ke MA yang lebih panjang, tutup posisi.

  6. Dengan menangkap persilangan MAs, ia memperdagangkan pembalikan tren jangka menengah.

Keuntungan

  1. Mengamati perubahan tren jangka menengah dengan efektif menggunakan sistem crossover MA.

  2. Sinyal perdagangan sederhana dan jelas untuk diikuti.

  3. Parameter periode yang dapat disesuaikan sesuai dengan produk dan pedagang yang berbeda.

  4. Dapat mengatur stop loss dan mengambil keuntungan untuk mengendalikan risiko per perdagangan.

  5. Tidak perlu memprediksi nilai harga tertentu, hanya peduli dengan arah tren.

Risiko

  1. Lebih banyak sinyal palsu dapat terjadi selama pasar range dengan penyeberangan MA yang sering.

  2. Tidak dapat memperoleh keuntungan dari perubahan harga jangka pendek, hanya cocok untuk perdagangan tren jangka menengah hingga panjang.

  3. Sistem MA tertinggal dari perubahan harga, tidak dapat menangkap pembalikan tren tepat waktu.

  4. Frekuensi perdagangan mungkin rendah, tidak dapat memperoleh keuntungan yang cukup.

  5. Perlu menyesuaikan parameter secara tepat waktu untuk menyesuaikan pasar.

Optimalisasi

  1. Gabungkan dengan indikator lain seperti MACD, KD untuk menyaring sinyal palsu.

  2. Tambahkan filter tren, hanya perdagangan ketika tren jelas.

  3. Perdagangan beberapa kerangka waktu, lebih banyak kesempatan dari menyisir MA dari periode yang berbeda.

  4. Optimalkan parameter secara dinamis untuk menyesuaikan dengan perubahan pasar.

  5. Memperkenalkan model pembelajaran mesin untuk membantu menilai pembalikan tren.

Kesimpulan

Strategi Trading Reversal Gradient adalah strategi yang mudah digunakan untuk mengikuti tren secara keseluruhan. Strategi ini menangkap titik pembalikan tren jangka menengah dengan mengidentifikasi crossover MA, untuk memperdagangkan tren harga jangka panjang. Strategi ini mudah diterapkan dengan sinyal perdagangan yang jelas, tetapi juga memiliki beberapa keterbatasan. Strategi ini dapat ditingkatkan dengan mengoptimalkan parameter, menggabungkan indikator lain, dan memperkenalkan pembelajaran mesin untuk lebih memanfaatkan peluang pasar.


/*backtest
start: 2022-10-02 00:00:00
end: 2023-10-08 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
//Created by 100kiwi
strategy(title = "TrapTrading", overlay = true)

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// COMPONENT CODE START
//*******************************************************************
// Backtesting Period Selector | Component by pbergden
//*******************************************************************
testStartYear = input(2015, "Backtest Start Year")
testStartMonth = input(1, "Backtest Start Month")
testStartDay = input(1, "Backtest Start Day")
testPeriodStart = timestamp(testStartYear,testStartMonth,testStartDay,0,0)

testStopYear = input(2018, "Backtest Stop Year")
testStopMonth = input(12, "Backtest Stop Month")
testStopDay = input(31, "Backtest Stop Day")
testPeriodStop = timestamp(testStopYear,testStopMonth,testStopDay,0,0)

// A switch to control background coloring of the test period
testPeriodBackground = input(title="Color Background?", type=bool, defval=true)
testPeriodBackgroundColor = testPeriodBackground and (time >= testPeriodStart) and (time <= testPeriodStop) ? #00FF00 : na
bgcolor(testPeriodBackgroundColor, transp=97)

testPeriod() => true
// COMPONENT CODE STOP
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

// input
buySide = input(defval = true, title = "Trade Direction (ON: Buy Side OFF: Sell Side)", type = bool)
counterTrend  = input(defval = true, title = "Trade Mode (ON: Counter Trend OFF: Trend Following)", type = bool)
len1 = input(defval = 14, title = "Period")
multiple = input(defval = 1.4, title = "Multiple")

m1 = close - close[len1]
controlPoint = counterTrend ? lowest(abs(m1), len1) == abs(m1) : highest(abs(m1), len1) == abs(m1)
baseLine = valuewhen(controlPoint, avg(close, close[len1]), 0)

// trap line
atr = atr(len1)
line1Up = baseLine + (atr * multiple)
line2Up = baseLine + (atr * 2 * multiple)
line3Up = baseLine + (atr * 3 * multiple)
line4Up = baseLine + (atr * 4 * multiple)
line5Up = baseLine + (atr * 5 * multiple)
line6Up = baseLine + (atr * 6 * multiple)
line7Up = baseLine + (atr * 7 * multiple)
line8Up = baseLine + (atr * 8 * multiple)
line9Up = baseLine + (atr * 9 * multiple)
line10Up = baseLine + (atr * 10 * multiple)
line1Down = baseLine - (atr * multiple)
line2Down = baseLine - (atr * 2 * multiple)
line3Down = baseLine - (atr * 3 * multiple)
line4Down = baseLine - (atr * 4 * multiple)
line5Down = baseLine - (atr * 5 * multiple)
line6Down = baseLine - (atr * 6 * multiple)
line7Down = baseLine - (atr * 7 * multiple)
line8Down = baseLine - (atr * 8 * multiple)
line9Down = baseLine - (atr * 9 * multiple)
line10Down = baseLine - (atr * 9 * multiple)

// draw
color = close >= baseLine ? teal : red
barcolor(controlPoint ? yellow : na, title = "Candle Color")

plot(baseLine, title = "Base Line", color = white, linewidth = 4, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line1Up, title = "1Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line2Up, title = "2Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line3Up, title = "3Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line4Up, title = "4Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line5Up, title = "5Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line6Up, title = "6Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line7Up, title = "7Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line8Up, title = "8Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line9Up, title = "9Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line10Up, title = "10Up Line", color = green, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line1Down, title = "1Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line2Down, title = "2Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line3Down, title = "2Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line4Down, title = "4Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line5Down, title = "5Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line6Down, title = "6Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line7Down, title = "7Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line8Down, title = "8Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line9Down, title = "9Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)
plot(line10Down, title = "10Down Line", color = red, linewidth = 1, style = stepline, transp = 0)

// strategy code
if testPeriod() and buySide
    strategy.exit("Exit Long0", from_entry = "Long0", qty = 1, limit = line2Up)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long1", from_entry = "Long1", qty = 1, limit = line1Up)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long2", from_entry = "Long2", qty = 1, limit = baseLine)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long3", from_entry = "Long3", qty = 1, limit = line1Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long4", from_entry = "Long4", qty = 1, limit = line2Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long5", from_entry = "Long5", qty = 1, limit = line3Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long6", from_entry = "Long6", qty = 1, limit = line4Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long7", from_entry = "Long7", qty = 1, limit = line5Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long8", from_entry = "Long8", qty = 1, limit = line6Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long9", from_entry = "Long9", qty = 1, limit = line7Down)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long10", from_entry = "Long10", qty = 1, limit = line8Down)
    strategy.order("Long0", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = baseLine, when = strategy.position_size <= 0)
    strategy.order("Long1", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line1Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 1)
    strategy.order("Long2", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line2Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 2)
    strategy.order("Long3", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line3Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 3)
    strategy.order("Long4", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line4Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 4)
    strategy.order("Long5", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line5Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 5)
    strategy.order("Long6", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line6Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 6)
    strategy.order("Long7", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line7Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 7)
    strategy.order("Long8", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line8Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 8)
    strategy.order("Long9", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line9Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 9)
    strategy.order("Long10", strategy.long, qty = 1, limit = line10Down, when = strategy.position_size <= 10)
else
    if testPeriod() and not buySide
        strategy.exit("Exit Short0", from_entry = "Short0", qty = 1, limit = line2Down)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short1", from_entry = "Short1", qty = 1, limit = line1Down)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short2", from_entry = "Short2", qty = 1, limit = baseLine)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short3", from_entry = "Short3", qty = 1, limit = line1Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short4", from_entry = "Short4", qty = 1, limit = line2Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short5", from_entry = "Short5", qty = 1, limit = line3Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short6", from_entry = "Short6", qty = 1, limit = line4Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short7", from_entry = "Short7", qty = 1, limit = line5Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short8", from_entry = "Short8", qty = 1, limit = line6Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short9", from_entry = "Short9", qty = 1, limit = line7Up)
        strategy.exit("Exit Short10", from_entry = "Short10", qty = 1, limit = line8Up)
        strategy.order("Short0", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = baseLine, when = strategy.position_size >= 0)
        strategy.order("Short1", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line1Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -1)
        strategy.order("Short2", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line2Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -2)
        strategy.order("Short3", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line3Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -3)
        strategy.order("Short4", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line4Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -4)
        strategy.order("Short5", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line5Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -5)
        strategy.order("Short6", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line6Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -6)
        strategy.order("Short7", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line7Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -7)
        strategy.order("Short8", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line8Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -8)
        strategy.order("Short9", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line9Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -9)
        strategy.order("Short10", strategy.short, qty = 1, limit = line10Up, when = strategy.position_size >= -10)

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