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Posisi leveraged sizing dengan strategi manajemen risiko margin call

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2023-12-26 16:21:58
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Gambaran umum

Strategi ini mengelola risiko dengan menetapkan kondisi leverage dan margin call yang tinggi untuk menutup posisi selama fluktuasi pasar yang signifikan.

Logika Strategi

  1. Tetapkan leverage tinggi, misalnya 4x
  2. Mendefinisikan tingkat margin call, misalnya $25,000
  3. Hentikan pembukaan perdagangan baru ketika ekuitas jatuh di bawah level margin call
  4. Tutup semua posisi ketika margin call dipicu karena ekuitas terus turun

Dengan demikian, strategi dapat memotong kerugian dalam waktu selama pergerakan pasar drastis untuk mencegah risiko panggilan margin.

Analisis Keuntungan

  1. Fleksibel penyesuaian leverage berdasarkan toleransi risiko pribadi
  2. Mekanisme panggilan margin mencegah ledakan akun
  3. Stop loss yang tepat waktu dengan leverage tinggi untuk mengurangi risiko

Analisis Risiko

  1. Leverage memperkuat keuntungan dan risiko
  2. Tingkat panggilan margin perlu diselaraskan dengan stop loss
  3. Stop loss yang tunduk pada risiko slip

Risiko dapat dikurangi dengan menyesuaikan leverage, menyelaraskan margin call dan stop loss, mengoptimalkan stop loss, dll.

Arahan Optimasi

  1. Tambahkan filter tren untuk menghindari perdagangan kontra-tren
  2. Optimalkan stop loss untuk mencegah tergelincir
  3. Atur filter jam perdagangan untuk menghindari perdagangan di sesi tertentu
  4. Mengintegrasikan model pembelajaran mesin untuk menyesuaikan parameter secara dinamis

Ringkasan

Strategi ini mengelola risiko dengan pengaturan leverage dan margin call untuk mencegah ledakan akun. Namun, leverage tinggi juga meningkatkan risiko. Upaya tambahan seperti validasi tren, optimasi stop loss dan kontrol jam perdagangan dapat membantu mengurangi risiko lebih lanjut. Teknik kompleks seperti pembelajaran mesin juga dapat dimanfaatkan untuk mengoptimalkan parameter secara dinamis dan mencapai keseimbangan antara profitabilitas dan manajemen risiko.

/*backtest
start: 2023-11-25 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-25 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
//@version=4
//@author=Daveatt

// Breakout on 2H high/low break Strategy

SystemName = "Leverage Strategy"
TradeId = "🙏"

InitCapital             = 100000
InitPosition            = 1
UseMarginCall           = input(true, title="Use Margin Call?")
MarginValue             = input(25000, title="Margin Value", type=input.float)
// use 1 for no leverage
// use 0.1 for be underleveraged and bet 1/10th of a pip value
// use any value > 1 for full-degen mode
UseLeverage             = input(true, title="Use Leverage")
LeverageValue           = input(4, title="Leverage mult (1 for no leverage)", minval=0.1, type=input.float)
// Risk Management
UseRiskManagement       = input(true, title="Use Risk Management?")
// ticks = 1/10th of a pip value
StopLoss                = input(5, title="Stop Loss in ticks value", type=input.float)
TakeProfit              = input(500, title="Take Profit in ticks value", type=input.float)

InitCommission = 0.075
InitPyramidMax = 1
CalcOnorderFills = false
CalcOnTick = true
DefaultQtyType = strategy.cash
DefaultQtyValue = strategy.cash
Currency = currency.USD
Precision = 2
Overlay=false
MaxBarsBack=3000

strategy
 (
 title=SystemName, 
 shorttitle=SystemName, 
 overlay=Overlay 
 )

//////////////////////////// UTILITIES ///////////////////////////

f_print(_txt, _condition) =>

    var _lbl = label(na)
    label.delete(_lbl)

    if _condition
        // saving the candle where we got rekt :(
        _index = barssince(_condition)
        _lbl := label.new(bar_index - _index, highest(100), _txt, xloc.bar_index, yloc.price, size = size.normal, style=label.style_labeldown)

//////////////////////////// STRATEGY LOGIC ///////////////////////////

// Date filterigng
_Date       = input(true, title="[LABEL] DATE")
FromYear = input(2019, "From Year", minval=1900),   FromMonth = input(12, "From Month", minval=1, maxval=12),    FromDay = input(1, "From Day", minval=1, maxval=31)
ToYear = input(2019, "To Year", minval=1900),       ToMonth = input(12, "To Month", minval=1, maxval=12),        ToDay = input(9, "To Day", minval=1, maxval=31)
FromDate = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00)     
ToDate = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)
TradeDateIsAllowed = true

// non-repainting security version
four_hours_H     = security(syminfo.tickerid, '240', high[1], lookahead=true)
four_hours_L     = security(syminfo.tickerid, '240', low[1], lookahead=true)
buy_trigger     = crossover(close, four_hours_H)
sell_trigger    = crossunder(close, four_hours_L)

// trend states
since_buy  = barssince(buy_trigger)
since_sell = barssince(sell_trigger)
buy_trend  = since_sell > since_buy
sell_trend = since_sell < since_buy 

change_trend = (buy_trend and sell_trend[1]) or (sell_trend and buy_trend[1])

// plot(four_hours_H, title="4H High",  linewidth=2, color=#3c91c2, style=plot.style_linebr, transp=0,
//  show_last=1, trackprice=true)
// plot(four_hours_L, title="4H Low",  linewidth=2, color=#3c91c2, style=plot.style_linebr, transp=0,
//  show_last=1, trackprice=true)

plot(strategy.equity, color=color.blue, linewidth=3, title="Strategy Equity")

// get the entry price
entry_price = valuewhen(buy_trigger or sell_trigger, close, 0)

// SL and TP

SL_price    = buy_trend ? entry_price - StopLoss    : entry_price + StopLoss
is_SL_hit   = buy_trend ? crossunder(low, SL_price) : crossover(high, SL_price) 

TP_price    = buy_trend ? entry_price + TakeProfit  : entry_price - TakeProfit
is_TP_hit   = buy_trend ? crossover(high, TP_price) : crossunder(low, TP_price)

//  Account Margin Management:
f_account_margin_call_cross(_amount)=>
    _return = crossunder(strategy.equity, _amount)

f_account_margin_call(_amount)=>
    _return = strategy.equity <= _amount

is_margin_call_cross    = f_account_margin_call_cross(MarginValue)
is_margin_call          = f_account_margin_call(MarginValue)

plot(strategy.equity, title='strategy.equity', transp=0, linewidth=4)
//plot(barssince(is_margin_call ), title='barssince(is_margin_call)', transp=100)

can_trade = iff(UseMarginCall, not is_margin_call, true)
trade_size  = InitPosition * (not UseLeverage ? 1 : LeverageValue)

// We can take the trade if not liquidated/margined called/rekt

buy_final   = can_trade and buy_trigger and TradeDateIsAllowed
sell_final  = can_trade and sell_trigger and TradeDateIsAllowed

close_long  = buy_trend  and 
 (UseRiskManagement and (is_SL_hit or is_TP_hit)) or sell_trigger

close_short = sell_trend and 
 (UseRiskManagement and (is_SL_hit or is_TP_hit)) or buy_trigger

strategy.entry(TradeId + ' B', long=true, qty=trade_size, when=buy_final)
strategy.entry(TradeId + ' S', long=false, qty=trade_size, when=sell_final)
strategy.close(TradeId + ' B', when=close_long)
strategy.close(TradeId + ' S', when=close_short)

// FULL DEGEN MODE ACTIVATED
// Margin called - Broker closing your account
strategy.close_all(when=is_margin_call)

if UseMarginCall and is_margin_call_cross
    f_print("☠️REKT☠️", is_margin_call_cross)
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