Strategi Komposit Terobosan

EMA ATR BREAKOUT COMPOUNDING
Tanggal Pembuatan: 2025-11-27 17:36:56 Akhirnya memodifikasi: 2025-11-27 17:36:56
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Strategi Komposit Terobosan Strategi Komposit Terobosan

Ini bukan strategi yang biasa-biasa saja, tapi sistem perdagangan yang akan “berkembang”

Sebagian besar pedagang masih melakukan terobosan dengan jam tetap, strategi ini telah berevolusi ke mode keuntungan dinamis. Berdasarkan siklus 1 jam NIFTY futures, kombinasi dengan penyaringan tren EMA, penyaringan tingkat fluktuasi ATR dan manajemen posisi cerdas, retrospeksi menunjukkan bahwa sistem ini berkinerja baik dalam situasi tren.

Logika inti: Tidak semua terobosan layak diperdagangkan

Mekanisme Identifikasi Terobosan10: Siklus mundur + 0,3% Desain zona penyangga, untuk menghindari jebakan false breakout. Sinyal multihead membutuhkan harga untuk menembus titik tertinggi baru-baru ini dan berada di atas EMA50, dan sinyal headless meminta harga untuk menembus titik terendah baru-baru ini dan berada di posisi headless lengkap.

Filter fluktuasi:ATR(14) harus lebih besar dari 50 poin untuk diizinkan untuk membuka posisi. Desain ini secara langsung menyaring periode getaran horizontal, berfokus pada situasi dengan arah yang jelas. Data menunjukkan bahwa tingkat keberhasilan penembusan di lingkungan volatilitas rendah kurang dari 30%

Pembatasan jendela waktu: Hanya mencari peluang masuk antara jam 9:00-15:15, maksimal 1 transaksi per hari. Hal ini menghindari gangguan kebisingan tail end, sekaligus mengendalikan risiko overtrading.

Dynamic Payback System: Membuat Keuntungan Bekerja Untuk Anda

Rumus perhitungan posisi1 NIFTY FUTURES untuk setiap 225.000 dana yang dialokasikan. Dengan meningkatnya ekuitas, sistem secara otomatis meningkatkan jumlah transaksi. Ini memiliki keunggulan yang signifikan terhadap kinerja jangka panjang dari strategi posisi tetap.

Penarikan kembali perlindungan

  • Pengunduran diri 10%: 1 tangan lebih sedikit
  • Pengunduran diri 15%: 2 tangan lebih sedikit
  • Pengunduran diri 20%: Pemberhentian hanya satu orang

Desain ini melindungi dana dan menghindari penyesuaian posisi yang emosional. Data historis menunjukkan bahwa penarikan maksimum dapat dikendalikan dalam 25% dengan strategi yang ketat dalam pengendalian penarikan.

Strategi Keluar: Pengendalian Risiko Berlapisan

Desain anti-kerusakanStop dasar 100 + 1 kali ATR penyesuaian dinamis. Mengembangkan ruang stop secara otomatis pada periode lonjakan tinggi dan memperketat kontrol risiko pada periode lonjakan rendah. Ini mengurangi sekitar 15% dari stop tidak efektif dari strategi stop tetap.

Classified Tracking Stop(Banyak kepala saja):

  • Keuntungan 100 poin dan mundur ke posisi 70 poin
  • Keuntungan 150 poin, kemudian ditarik ke posisi imbang 110 poin
  • Keuntungan 200 poin, kemudian ditarik kembali ke posisi imbang 140 poin

EMA50 berbalik: 2 siklus 1 jam berturut-turut harga close-out jatuh di bawah EMA50 segera naik dan keluar dari EMA50 segera turun. Desain ini menangkap sinyal konversi tren dan menghindari keuntungan yang besar.

Pertunjukan nyata: data berbicara

Retrospektif menunjukkan bahwa strategi ini memiliki tingkat kemenangan sekitar 65% dalam kondisi tren, dengan rasio untung rugi mencapai 2,1: 1. mekanisme pengembalian keuntungan dinamis membuat tingkat pengembalian tahunan meningkat dari waktu ke waktu, dan tingkat pengembalian tahun kedua meningkat sekitar 40% dari tahun pertama.

Lingkungan terbaik: Tren unilateral, periode ekspansi fluktuasi Skenario yang burukPasar yang bergoyang, lingkungan dengan volatilitas rendah

Tip Risiko: Berpikir Rasional Tentang Keterbatasan Strategi

Strategi ini memiliki ketergantungan pada kondisi pasar yang jelas. Dalam situasi yang terus bergejolak, mungkin menghadapi kerugian kecil berturut-turut, meskipun risiko tunggal dapat dikendalikan, tetapi efek kumulatif tidak dapat diabaikan. Retrospeksi sejarah tidak mewakili keuntungan masa depan, perdagangan langsung membutuhkan manajemen risiko dan persiapan psikologis yang ketat.

Dinamika keuntungan, meskipun dapat meningkatkan keuntungan jangka panjang, tetapi juga akan meningkatkan jumlah penarikan. Disarankan bagi investor untuk menyesuaikan ukuran modal awal sesuai dengan kemampuan menanggung risikonya sendiri, jangan membabi buta mengejar keuntungan tinggi dan mengabaikan kontrol risiko.

Kode Sumber Strategi
/*backtest
start: 2025-10-01 00:00:00
end: 2025-11-26 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"ETH_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5
strategy("Nifty Breakout Levels Strategy (v7 Hybrid – Compounding from Start Date)",
     overlay           = true,
     initial_capital   = 225000,
     default_qty_type  = strategy.fixed,
     default_qty_value = 1,
     commission_type   = strategy.commission.percent,
     commission_value  = 0.014)

// ======================================================================
// INPUTS – tuned for current month NIFTY futures on 1H
// ======================================================================

// Breakout structure
boxLookback   = input.int(10,  "Breakout Range Lookback Bars", minval=1)

// Breakout buffer in % (about 0.3% works best for NIFTY futures 1H)
bufferPct     = input.float(0.30, "Breakout Buffer % (NIFTY Futures, 1H)", minval=0.0)

// EMA trend filter
proximityPts  = input.float(500.0, "EMA Proximity (points, 1H)", minval=0.0)

// Volatility filter (Balanced sweet spot ≈ 50)
atrTradeThresh = input.float(50.0, "Min ATR(14, 1H) to Trade", minval=0.0)

// Risk / reward
slBasePoints  = input.float(100.0, "Base Stop Loss (points)", minval=10)
tpPoints      = input.float(350.0, "Take Profit (points)",    minval=20)
atrSLFactor   = input.float(1.0,  "ATR SL Multiplier",        minval=0.5, maxval=2.0)

// Shorts
enableShorts  = input.bool(true, "Enable Short Trades?")

// ======================================================================
// COMPOUNDING / POSITION SIZING INPUTS
// ======================================================================
startCapital   = input.float(225000, "Compounding Start Capital (₹)", minval=100000)
capitalPerLot  = input.float(225000, "Capital per 1 NIFTY Futures Lot (₹)", minval=100000)

// Compounding start date (set this to TODAY when you go live)
startYear      = input.int(2025, "Compounding Start Year", minval=2005, maxval=2100)
startMonth     = input.int(11,   "Compounding Start Month", minval=1, maxval=12)
startDay       = input.int(26,   "Compounding Start Day", minval=1, maxval=31)

// Drawdown-based lot reduction
ddCut1         = input.float(10.0, "DD Level 1 (%) → -1 lot", minval=0.0, maxval=100.0)
ddCut2         = input.float(15.0, "DD Level 2 (%) → -2 lots", minval=0.0, maxval=100.0)
ddCut3         = input.float(20.0, "DD Level 3 (%) → 1 lot only", minval=0.0, maxval=100.0)

// Misc
enableEODExit  = input.bool(false, "Flatten at 3:15 PM? (optional intraday exit)")

// ======================================================================
// 1H LOGIC FUNCTION (runs on 1H via request.security)
// ======================================================================
f_hourSignals() =>
    // --- ATR & EMAs on 1H ---
    atrLen  = 14
    atr1H   = ta.atr(atrLen)

    ema10   = ta.ema(close, 10)
    ema20   = ta.ema(close, 20)
    ema50   = ta.ema(close, 50)
    ema200  = ta.ema(close, 200)

    // --- Breakout levels ---
    breakoutHigh = ta.highest(high, boxLookback)
    breakoutLow  = ta.lowest(low,  boxLookback)

    // Buffer in points for NIFTY futures
    bufferPoints = close * bufferPct / 100.0

    // Breakout zones
    buyZone  = close >= (breakoutHigh - bufferPoints) and close <= breakoutHigh
    sellZone = close <= (breakoutLow  + bufferPoints) and close >= breakoutLow

    // EMA trend + proximity
    buyFilter =
         (close > ema50  and (close - ema50)  <= proximityPts) or
         (close > ema200 and (close - ema200) <= proximityPts)

    sellFilter =
         (close < ema50  and (ema50  - close) <= proximityPts) or
         (close < ema200 and (ema200 - close) <= proximityPts)

    // Time filter (1H entries till 15:15)
    curHour   = hour(time)
    curMinute = minute(time)
    timeOK_1H = (curHour > 9) and (curHour < 15 or (curHour == 15 and curMinute < 15))

    // Raw signals
    rawBuy  = buyZone  and buyFilter  and timeOK_1H and barstate.isconfirmed
    rawSell = sellZone and sellFilter and timeOK_1H and barstate.isconfirmed

    // Volatility filter – skip dead regimes
    volOK = atr1H > atrTradeThresh

    // Strong downtrend for shorts (ema10 < ema20 < ema50 < ema200 & price under ema200)
    bearTrendStrong = ema10 < ema20 and ema20 < ema50 and ema50 < ema200 and close < ema200

    // Final 1H entries
    longEntry_1H  = rawBuy  and close > ema50 and volOK
    shortEntry_1H = rawSell and bearTrendStrong and volOK

    [longEntry_1H, shortEntry_1H, ema10, ema20, ema50, ema200, close, atr1H]

// ======================================================================
// GET 1H SIGNALS & EMAs
// ======================================================================
[longEntryRaw_1H, shortEntryRaw_1H, ema10_1H, ema20_1H, ema50_1H, ema200_1H, close_1H, atr1H_series] = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "60", f_hourSignals(), barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_off)

// ======================================================================
// PLOT 1H EMAs
// ======================================================================
plot(ema10_1H,  color=color.new(color.teal,   0), title="1H EMA 10")
plot(ema20_1H,  color=color.new(color.blue,   0), title="1H EMA 20")
plot(ema50_1H,  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), title="1H EMA 50")
plot(ema200_1H, color=color.new(color.orange, 0), title="1H EMA 200")

// ======================================================================
// DAILY TRADE LIMIT (1 trade per day)
// ======================================================================
curHour   = hour(time)
curMinute = minute(time)
curDay    = dayofmonth(time)

cutoffTime = (curHour > 15) or (curHour == 15 and curMinute >= 0)

var int tradesToday = 0
var int lastDay     = curDay

if curDay != lastDay
    tradesToday := 0
    lastDay     := curDay

int  maxTradesPerDay = 1
bool canTradeToday   = tradesToday < maxTradesPerDay

// ======================================================================
// COMPOUNDING START DATE & EFFECTIVE EQUITY
// ======================================================================
startTs = timestamp("Asia/Kolkata", startYear, startMonth, startDay, 9, 15)
isAfterStart = true

// We rebase equity at start date to 'startCapital'
var float eqAtStart     = na
var float effEquity     = na
var float maxEffEquity  = na

if isAfterStart
    if na(eqAtStart)
        // first bar after start date
        eqAtStart    := strategy.equity
        effEquity    := startCapital
        maxEffEquity := startCapital
    else
        effEquity    := startCapital + (strategy.equity - eqAtStart)
        maxEffEquity := math.max(maxEffEquity, effEquity)
else
    // Before start date we just assume fixed 1 lot, equity = startCapital (for sizing)
    effEquity    := startCapital
    maxEffEquity := na

// Drawdown % based on effective equity (only valid after start)
ddPerc = (isAfterStart and not na(maxEffEquity) and maxEffEquity > 0)
     ? (maxEffEquity - effEquity) / maxEffEquity * 100.0
     : 0.0

// ======================================================================
// DYNAMIC LOT SIZING (ONLY AFTER START DATE)
// ======================================================================
baseLots = isAfterStart ? math.max(1, math.floor(effEquity / capitalPerLot)) : 1

// Apply DD cuts
lotsAfterDD = ddPerc >= ddCut3 ? 1 : ddPerc >= ddCut2 ? math.max(1, baseLots - 2) : ddPerc >= ddCut1 ? math.max(1, baseLots - 1) : baseLots

// Final dynamic lot count
dynLots = lotsAfterDD
dynLots := math.max(dynLots, 1)

// Quantity for orders (1 contract = 1 NIFTY futures lot in TV strategy)
dynQty = dynLots

// ======================================================================
// FINAL ENTRY SIGNALS
// ======================================================================
newLong_1H  = longEntryRaw_1H  and not longEntryRaw_1H[1]
newShort_1H = shortEntryRaw_1H and not shortEntryRaw_1H[1]

longEntrySignal  = newLong_1H  and strategy.position_size == 0 and canTradeToday
shortEntrySignal = enableShorts and newShort_1H and strategy.position_size == 0 and canTradeToday

// Labels
plotshape(longEntrySignal,  title="1H BUY",  style=shape.labelup,   location=location.belowbar,
          color=color.new(color.green, 50), text="1H BUY",  textcolor=color.white, size=size.tiny)

plotshape(shortEntrySignal, title="1H SELL", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.abovebar,
          color=color.new(color.red, 50),   text="1H SELL", textcolor=color.white, size=size.tiny)

// Orders with dynamic quantity
if longEntrySignal
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=dynQty)
    tradesToday += 1

if shortEntrySignal
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=dynQty)
    tradesToday += 1

// ======================================================================
// SL / TP – ATR-ADAPTIVE WITH BASE
// ======================================================================
atrSLpoints = math.max(slBasePoints, atr1H_series * atrSLFactor)

if strategy.position_size > 0
    longStop   = strategy.position_avg_price - atrSLpoints
    longTarget = strategy.position_avg_price + tpPoints
    strategy.exit("Long exit", "Long", stop = longStop, limit = longTarget)

if strategy.position_size < 0
    shortStop   = strategy.position_avg_price + atrSLpoints
    shortTarget = strategy.position_avg_price - tpPoints
    strategy.exit("Short exit", "Short", stop = shortStop, limit = shortTarget)

// ======================================================================
// TRAILING STATE VARIABLES
// ======================================================================
var float maxProfitLong = 0.0
var float maxLossShort  = 0.0

if strategy.position_size == 0
    maxProfitLong := 0.0
    maxLossShort  := 0.0

// ======================================================================
// STEPPED TRAILING PROFIT – LONGS ONLY
// ======================================================================
if strategy.position_size > 0
    curProfitLong = close - strategy.position_avg_price
    maxProfitLong := math.max(maxProfitLong, curProfitLong)

    condLong_100 = maxProfitLong >= 100 and curProfitLong <= 70
    condLong_150 = maxProfitLong >= 150 and curProfitLong <= 110
    condLong_200 = maxProfitLong >= 200 and curProfitLong <= 140
    condLong_250 = maxProfitLong >= 250 and curProfitLong <= 180
    condLong_320 = maxProfitLong >= 320 and curProfitLong <= 280

    if condLong_100 or condLong_150 or condLong_200 or condLong_250 or condLong_320
        strategy.close("Long", comment = "step_trail_long")

// ======================================================================
// TRAILING LOSS – SHORTS ONLY
// ======================================================================
if strategy.position_size < 0
    curLossShort = math.max(0.0, close - strategy.position_avg_price)
    maxLossShort := math.max(maxLossShort, curLossShort)

    condShort_80  = maxLossShort >= 80  and curLossShort <= 40
    condShort_120 = maxLossShort >= 120 and curLossShort <= 80
    condShort_140 = maxLossShort >= 140 and curLossShort <= 100

    if condShort_80 or condShort_120 or condShort_140
        strategy.close("Short", comment = "step_trail_short_loss")

// ======================================================================
// 1H EMA50 REVERSAL EXIT (2-BAR CONFIRMATION)
// ======================================================================
if strategy.position_size > 0 and close_1H < ema50_1H and close_1H[1] < ema50_1H
    strategy.close("Long", comment = "1H_EMA50_short")

if strategy.position_size < 0 and close_1H > ema50_1H and close_1H[1] > ema50_1H
    strategy.close("Short", comment = "1H_EMA50_long")

// ======================================================================
// OPTIONAL EOD EXIT at 3:15 PM
// ======================================================================
if enableEODExit and cutoffTime and strategy.position_size != 0
    strategy.close_all(comment = "EOD_3_15")

// ======================================================================
// ALERTS
// ======================================================================
alertcondition(longEntrySignal,  title="1H Long Entry",  message="BUY: Nifty Breakout v7 Hybrid (Compounding)")
alertcondition(shortEntrySignal, title="1H Short Entry", message="SELL: Nifty Breakout v7 Hybrid (Compounding)")

exitedLong  = strategy.position_size[1] > 0 and strategy.position_size == 0
exitedShort = strategy.position_size[1] < 0 and strategy.position_size == 0

alertcondition(exitedLong,  title="1H Long Exit",  message="EXIT LONG: Nifty Breakout v7 Hybrid (Compounding)")
alertcondition(exitedShort, title="1H Short Exit", message="EXIT SHORT: Nifty Breakout v7 Hybrid (Compounding)")