PSAR、ZigZag、MACD、ARTのマルチインジケーターの組み合わせに基づく定量戦略


作成日: 2023-09-14 20:17:43 最終変更日: 2023-09-14 20:17:43
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この記事では,複数の技術指標の組み合わせをベースに量化取引を行う戦略について詳しく説明します.この戦略は,複数の指標を総合的に使用して取引信号を形成し,効果的なリスク管理を実現します.

戦略の原則

この戦略は以下の部分から構成されています.

(1) PSARはトレンドの方向を判断し,基本の買入/売却信号を生成する.

(2) ZigZag線形状を判断し,信号の方向を確認する.

(3) ブリンライン指標の突破判定,補佐確認信号;

(4) MACD指数は信号を検証し,正確性を向上させる.

(5) ATR指数は,単一リスクの制御のための動的ストップを計算します.

(6) 综合上記の信号と条件で入院する.

すべての指標信号が一致するときに,最終的な取引指示が形成され,偽の信号を効果的にフィルターし,正確性を向上させます.ATR計算のストップローズは,取引ごとにリスクを制御します.

2 戦略的優位性

この戦略の最大の利点は,複数の指標の組み合わせで信号を検証することにある.これは,単一の指標の限界を回避し,信号の信頼性を高めている.

さらに,ダイナミック・ストップ方式も大きな利点である.市場変動の程度に応じて合理的なストップ・レベルを設定し,リスクを積極的に制御するのに役立ちます.

最後に,マルチメーターの組み合わせは,戦略の効率性を高めるために,多くのパラメータを最適化することができます.

3 潜在的リスク

しかし,次のリスクにも注意する必要があります.

まず,多指標組合せはパラメータ最適化の難易度を高め,不合理な設定は過最適化につながる.

第二に,ストップ・ロスは破綻の危険に近すぎると,損失が拡大する.

最後に,指数信号の間で不一致が生じる可能性があり,明確な優先順位を設定する必要があります.

内容と要約

この記事では,複数の指標の検証に基づいた量化取引戦略について詳しく説明する.これは,複数の指標を合理的に使って信号の検証とリスク管理を行う.しかし,パラメータの最適化の難しさを十分に認識し,過度に接近するリスクを予備的に防止する必要がある.全体的に,この戦略は,比較的健全な量化取引方法を提供する.

ストラテジーソースコード
/*backtest
start: 2023-09-06 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-08 09:00:00
period: 1m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © Rolan_Kruger

//@version=5
strategy("PSAR BBPT ZLSMA","PBZ", overlay=true,default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100)

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// PSAR BUY/SELL

start = input.float(title='Start', step=0.00005, defval=0.05, group = "PSAR")
increment = input.float(title='Increment', step=0.00005, defval=0.05, group = "PSAR")
maximum = input.float(title='Maximum', step=0.01, defval=0.13, group = "PSAR")
width = input.int(title='Point Width', minval=1, defval=20, group = "PSAR")
highlightStartPoints = input(title='Highlight Start Points ?', defval=false, group = "PSAR")

psar = ta.sar(start, increment, maximum)
dir = psar < close ? 1 : -1

psarColor = psar < close ? #3388bb : #fdcc02


plotshape(dir == 1 and dir[1] == -1 and highlightStartPoints ? psar : na, title='Buy', style=shape.labelup, location=location.absolute, size=size.normal, text='Buy', textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0), color=color.new(color.green, 0))
plotshape(dir == -1 and dir[1] == 1 and highlightStartPoints ? psar : na, title='Sell', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.absolute, size=size.normal, text='Sell', textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0), color=color.new(color.red, 0))

barcolor(dir == 1 ? color.green : color.red, display = display.none)
PSAR_Buy = dir == 1 and dir[1] == -1
PSAR_Sell = dir == -1 and dir[1] == 1

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// ZLSMA

length = input(title='Length', defval=50,group = "ZLSMA")
offset = input(title='Offset', defval=0,group = "ZLSMA")
src = input(close, title='Source',group = "ZLSMA")
lsma = ta.linreg(src, length, offset)
lsma2 = ta.linreg(lsma, length, offset)
eq = lsma - lsma2
zlsma = lsma + eq

plot(zlsma, color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=3)

ZLSMA_Buy = close > zlsma and open > zlsma and low > zlsma and high > zlsma
ZLSMA_Sell = close < zlsma and open < zlsma and low < zlsma and high < zlsma

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// BBPT


//
switch_bbpt = input.bool(false, "Switch BBPT conditionals",group ="Bull Bear Power Trend")
length1 = 8
//
BullTrend_hist = 0.0
BearTrend_hist = 0.0

BullTrend = (close - ta.lowest(low, 50)) / ta.atr(5)
BearTrend = (ta.highest(high, 50) - close) / ta.atr(5)
BearTrend2 = -1 * BearTrend

Trend = BullTrend - BearTrend

if BullTrend < 2
    BullTrend_hist := BullTrend - 2
    BullTrend_hist

if BearTrend2 > -2
    BearTrend_hist := BearTrend2 + 2
    BearTrend_hist

//alexgrover-Regression Line Formula
x = bar_index
y = Trend
x_ = ta.sma(x, length1)
y_ = ta.sma(y, length1)
mx = ta.stdev(x, length1)
my = ta.stdev(y, length1)
c = ta.correlation(x, y, length1)
slope = c * (my / mx)
inter = y_ - slope * x_
reg_trend = x * slope + inter
//

BBPT_Buy = BearTrend_hist
BBPT_Sell = BullTrend_hist

if switch_bbpt
    BBPT_Buy := BullTrend_hist
    BBPT_Sell := BearTrend_hist

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Sessions

enable_sessions = input.bool(false, "Enable Sessions for strategy", group = "Sessions")
bgColor = input.bool(false, "Activate High/Low View", group = "Sessions")

LondonColor = color.new(color.green, 90)
NYColor = color.new(color.red, 90)
AsiaColor = color.new(color.yellow, 90)
SydneyColor = color.new(color.blue, 90)

///Sessions

res = input.timeframe("D", "Resolution", ["D","W","M"], group = "Sessions")
london = input("0300-1200:1234567", "London Session", group = "Sessions")
ny = input("0800-1700:1234567", "New York Session", group = "Sessions")
tokyo = input("2000-0400:1234567", "Tokyo Session", group = "Sessions")
sydney = input("1700-0200:1234567", "Sydney Session", group = "Sessions")

//Bars

is_newbar(sess) =>
    t = time(res, sess, "America/New_York")
    na(t[1]) and not na(t) or t[1] < t

is_session(sess) =>
    not na(time(timeframe.period, sess, "America/New_York"))
    

//London

London = input.bool(false, "London Session")

londonNewbar = is_newbar(london)
londonSession = is_session(london)

float londonLow = na
londonLow := if londonSession
    if londonNewbar
        low
    else
        math.min(londonLow[1],low)
else
    londonLow

float londonHigh = na
londonHigh := if londonSession
    if londonNewbar
        high
    else
        math.max(londonHigh[1],high)
else
    londonHigh


plotLL = plot(londonLow, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
plotLH = plot(londonHigh, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
fill(plotLL, plotLH, color = londonSession and London and bgColor ? LondonColor : na)

bgcolor(londonSession and London and not bgColor ? LondonColor : na)



//New York

NY = input.bool(false, "New York Session")

nyNewbar = is_newbar(ny)
nySession = is_session(ny)

float nyLow = na
nyLow := if nySession
    if nyNewbar
        low
    else
        math.min(nyLow[1],low)
else
    nyLow

float nyHigh = na
nyHigh := if nySession
    if nyNewbar
        high
    else
        math.max(nyHigh[1],high)
else
    nyHigh


plotNYL = plot(nyLow, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
plotNYH = plot(nyHigh, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
fill(plotNYL, plotNYH, color = nySession and NY and bgColor ? NYColor : na)

bgcolor(nySession and NY and not bgColor ? NYColor : na)


//Tokyo

Tokyo = input.bool(false, "Tokyo Session")

tokyoNewbar = is_newbar(tokyo)
tokyoSession = is_session(tokyo)

float tokyoLow = na
tokyoLow := if tokyoSession
    if tokyoNewbar
        low
    else
        math.min(tokyoLow[1],low)
else
    tokyoLow

float tokyoHigh = na
tokyoHigh := if tokyoSession
    if tokyoNewbar
        high
    else
        math.max(tokyoHigh[1],high)
else
    tokyoHigh


plotTL = plot(tokyoLow, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
plotTH = plot(tokyoHigh, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
fill(plotTL, plotTH, color = tokyoSession and Tokyo and bgColor ? AsiaColor : na)

bgcolor(tokyoSession and Tokyo and not bgColor ? AsiaColor : na)



//Sydney

Sydney = input.bool(false, "Sydney Session")

sydneyNewbar = is_newbar(sydney)
sydneySession = is_session(sydney)

float sydneyLow = na
sydneyLow := if sydneySession
    if sydneyNewbar
        low
    else
        math.min(sydneyLow[1],low)
else
    sydneyLow

float sydneyHigh = na
sydneyHigh := if sydneySession
    if sydneyNewbar
        high
    else
        math.max(sydneyHigh[1],high)
else
    sydneyHigh


plotSL = plot(sydneyLow, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
plotSH = plot(sydneyHigh, color=color.new(#000000, 100))
fill(plotSL, plotSH, color = sydneySession and Sydney and bgColor ? SydneyColor : na)

bgcolor(sydneySession and Sydney and not bgColor ? SydneyColor : na)

London_ok = London and londonSession
NY_ok = NY and nySession
Tokyo_ok = Tokyo and tokyoSession
Sydney_ok = Sydney and sydneySession

in_session = true

if London_ok or NY_ok or Tokyo_ok or Sydney_ok and enable_sessions
    in_session := true

else if enable_sessions == true
    in_session := false

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// EMA Filter

ema_filter = input.bool(false, "Enable EMA filter", group = "EMA")
ema_lenght = input.int(50, "EMA lenght", group = "EMA")

ema1 = ta.ema(close, ema_lenght)
plot(ema1, "EMA", color.white, 3)

EMA_Buy = true
EMA_Sell = true

if ema_filter == true
    EMA_Buy := close > ema1
    EMA_Sell := ema1 > close

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// ZLSMA angle calc


zlsma_angle_filter = input.bool(true, "ZLSMA angle filter", group = "ZLSMA")

ZLSMA_Up = true
ZLSMA_Down = true

if zlsma_angle_filter == true
    ZLSMA_Up := 1 < (zlsma - zlsma[1])
    ZLSMA_Down := -1 > (zlsma - zlsma[1])

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// SL/TP

// Assumes quote currency is FIAT as with BTC/USDT pair

max_sl = input.float(0.2, "Max SL size in %", group = "SL/TP", minval = 0.1, tooltip = "Cancels trade if SL is too big" )
zlsma_offset = input.float(0.02, title="ZLSMA SL offset in %", group = "SL/TP",maxval = 1)
tp1_multi = input.float(1, title="TP 1 multiplier", group = "SL/TP")
tp2_multi = input.float(2, title="TP 2 multiplier", group = "SL/TP")
tp1_persentage = input.float(0.001, "Persentage of trade close on TP1", group ="SL/TP", maxval = 100, minval = 0.001)

// SL too big check
sl_check = ((math.abs(close - zlsma))/close * 100) + zlsma_offset
sl_ok = true
if sl_check > max_sl
    sl_ok := false

// ZLSMA SL and TP
not_in_trade = strategy.position_size == 0
check_if_long = PSAR_Buy and ZLSMA_Buy and BBPT_Buy and EMA_Buy and ZLSMA_Up and sl_ok and in_session
check_if_short = PSAR_Sell and ZLSMA_Sell and BBPT_Sell and EMA_Sell and ZLSMA_Down and sl_ok and in_session

var float sl = 0.0
var float tp1 = 0.0
var float tp2 = 0.0

if check_if_long and not_in_trade
    sl := ((close - zlsma)/close * 100) + zlsma_offset
    tp1 := (((close - zlsma)/close * 100) + zlsma_offset)*tp1_multi
    tp2 := (((close - zlsma)/close * 100) + zlsma_offset)*tp2_multi

if check_if_short and not_in_trade
    sl := ((zlsma - close)/close * 100) + zlsma_offset
    tp1 := (((zlsma - close)/close * 100) + zlsma_offset)*tp1_multi
    tp2 := (((zlsma - close)/close * 100) + zlsma_offset)*tp2_multi

// FUNCTIONS
// Stochastic
f_stochastic() =>
    stoch = ta.stoch(close, high, low, 14)
    stoch_K = ta.sma(stoch, 3)
    stoch_D = ta.sma(stoch_K, 3)
    stRD = ta.crossunder(stoch_K, stoch_D)
    stGD = ta.crossover(stoch_K, stoch_D)
    [stoch_K, stoch_D, stRD, stGD]


// VARIABLES
[bbMiddle, bbUpper, bbLower] = ta.bb(close, 20, 2)
[stoch_K, stoch_D, stRD, stGD] = f_stochastic()


// ORDERS
// Active Orders
// Check if strategy has open positions
inLong = strategy.position_size > 0
inShort = strategy.position_size < 0
// Check if strategy reduced position size in last bar
longClose = strategy.position_size < strategy.position_size[1]
shortClose = strategy.position_size > strategy.position_size[1]

// Entry Conditions
// Enter long when during last candle these conditions are true:
// Candle high is greater than upper Bollinger Band
// Stochastic K line crosses under D line and is oversold
longCondition = PSAR_Buy and ZLSMA_Buy and BBPT_Buy and EMA_Buy and ZLSMA_Up and sl_ok and in_session

// Enter short when during last candle these conditions are true:
// Candle low is lower than lower Bollinger Band
// Stochastic K line crosses over D line and is overbought
shortCondition = PSAR_Sell and ZLSMA_Sell and BBPT_Sell and EMA_Sell and ZLSMA_Down and sl_ok and in_session

// Exit Conditions
// Calculate Take Profit 
longTP1 = strategy.position_avg_price * ((100 + tp1)/100)
longTP2 = strategy.position_avg_price * ((100 + tp2)/100)
shortTP1 = strategy.position_avg_price * ((100 - tp1)/100)
shortTP2 = strategy.position_avg_price * ((100 - tp2)/100)

// Calculate Stop Loss
// Initialise variables
var float longSL = 0.0
var float shortSL = 0.0

// When not in position, set stop loss using close price which is the price used during backtesting
// When in a position, check to see if the position was reduced on the last bar
// If it was, set stop loss to position entry price. Otherwise, maintain last stop loss value
longSL := if inLong and ta.barssince(longClose) < ta.barssince(longCondition)
    strategy.position_avg_price
else if inLong
    longSL[1]
else
    close * ((100 - sl)/100)

shortSL := if inShort and ta.barssince(shortClose) < ta.barssince(shortCondition)
    strategy.position_avg_price
else if inShort
    shortSL[1]
else
    close * ((100 + sl)/100)

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// STRATEGY EXECUTION

// Manage positions
if not_in_trade and longCondition
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
strategy.exit("TP1/SL", from_entry="Long", qty_percent=tp1_persentage, limit=longTP1, stop=longSL)
strategy.exit("TP2/SL", from_entry="Long", limit=longTP2, stop=longSL)

if not_in_trade and shortCondition
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)
strategy.exit("TP1/SL", from_entry="Short", qty_percent=tp1_persentage, limit=shortTP1, stop=shortSL)
strategy.exit("TP2/SL", from_entry="Short", limit=shortTP2, stop=shortSL)