明確なトレンドフォロー戦略


作成日: 2023-09-28 16:07:12 最終変更日: 2023-09-28 16:07:12
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概要

この戦略は,複数の技術指標を組み合わせることで,トレンドを明確に追跡できます. 主に以下の部分が含まれています.

  1. 平均線に基づく傾向判断
  2. ランダムな指数に基づく 過剰買いと過剰売り判断
  3. 価格指数に基づく資金流出の判断
  4. 波動指標に基づくトレンドの質判断
  5. RSIによる偏差値の判断

原則

この戦略は,まず平均線から価格のトレンド方向を判断する.具体的には,一定の周期内の価格平均と,この平均の帯状通路を計算する.価格突破通路は,潜在的なトレンド反転を提示する.

ランダムな指標のKD指標と組み合わせて,価格が超買い状態か超売り状態か判断する.超買い状態は,価格の逆転の機会を示唆する.

次に,取引量情報を利用して,価格量指標を構築することによって,資金の流入と流出を判断する.量能の上昇は,資金の流入とトレンドの発展を予告し,量能の減少は,資金の流出とトレンドの逆転を代表する.

トレンドの質を判断するために,平均価格変動範囲を使用して市場データ指数を構築し,その後そのEMAを計算してトレンドの強さを判断します.

最後に,RSIは価格と波動の偏差を検出するために使用され,これはしばしば進行中のトレンドの逆転を予告します.

これらの指標の情報を統合することで,価格の傾向を比較的に明確に判断することができる.戦略は,均線が金交差時に多頭ポジションを建設し,死叉時に空頭ポジションを建設する.

利点

  • 多指標総合判断,騒音フィルタリング,トレンド判断をより明確で信頼性のあるものにする
  • 超買超売の判断に加われば,逆転のタイミングが決まる.
  • 資金流動を判断する指標を量化して,偽の突破を避ける
  • 波動指標は,トレンドの質を測定し,小範囲の振動によって誤導されないようにします.
  • RSIはトレンドの逆転の追加信号を提供するために,逆転しました.
  • コード構造は明確で,理解し,修正しやすい.

リスク

  • 複数の指標を組み合わせて判断すると,信号が衝突しやすいので,注意深く調整する必要があります.
  • ギャンブルが原因かもしれないので慎重に判断してください.
  • RSIのようないくつかの指標は,異なる品種のパラメータに調整する必要があります
  • 微小な振動で誤信号が生じやすい
  • 低効率な市場指標は効果を減算する

リスク対策:

  • パラメータ調整を強化し,指標の正常な動作を確保する.
  • 信号の衝突を処理する指標重量配置を追加する
  • 異なる品種特性に合わせてパラメータを調整する
  • 持株率を上げ,取引頻度を減らす
  • リアルディスク模擬検証効果

最適化の方向

この戦略は以下の点で最適化できます.

  1. マシン・ラーニングの手法を使用して,パラメータを自動的に最適化して,指標を異なる品種特性に合わせます.

  2. モデル評価モジュールを追加し,各指標の重みを異なる市場段階の動向に合わせて調整する

  3. 市場波動に応じてストップポイントを調整できる自己適応的ストップ戦略を追加

  4. ディープ・ラーニングと組み合わせて,より多くの特性を抽出し,より正確なトレンド判断を実現します.

  5. 自動信号調節モジュールを開発し,指標衝突や誤信号発生しやすい状況に対処する

  6. 統合モデルを増やし,より多くの技術指標判断を統合し,体系的な予測結果を形成する

  7. パラメータ依存性を減らすために,無参数指数を探索

要約する

この戦略は,複数の技術指標の力を統合することによって,価格動向を比較的に全面的に判断し,傾向判断戦略の分野において一定の優位性と応用展望を有している。しかし,判断精度を向上させ,誤判のリスクを低減するために,継続的に最適化する必要がある。将来,機械学習などの技術をさらに導入し,インテリジェンスアップグレードすることができる。

ストラテジーソースコード
/*backtest
start: 2022-09-21 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-27 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
//Market Cipher Update 2 - updated 8th Oct 2019

//Momentum Curves with green and red dots
strategy(title="MarketCipher B", shorttitle="MarketCipher B")
n1 = input(9, "Channel Length")
n2 = input(12, "Average Length")
obLevel1 = input(60, "Over Bought Level 1")
obLevel2 = input(53, "Over Bought Level 2")
osLevel1 = input(-60, "Over Sold Level 1")
osLevel2 = input(-53, "Over Sold Level 2")
osLevel3 = input(-100, "Over Sold Level 2")

 
ap = hlc3 
esa = ema(ap, n1)
d = ema(abs(ap - esa), n1)
ci = (ap - esa) / (0.015 * d)
tci = ema(ci, n2)
 
wt1 = tci
wt2 = sma(wt1,3)

plot(0, color=gray, title="Zero Line")
plot(obLevel1, color=red, style=3, title="Bottom")
plot(osLevel1, color=green, style=3, title="Top")
plot(wt1, color=#BFE4FF, style=4, title= "Lt Blue Wave")
plot(wt2, color=#673ab7, style=4, title="Blue Wave", transp=40)
plot(wt1-wt2, color=yellow, style=4, transp=40, title="wave1-wave2")

//green dots and crosses
plotshape(crossover(wt1, wt2) and osLevel1 ? wt2 : na, title="Pos Crossover", location=location.absolute, style=shape.cross, size=size.tiny, color=#3FFF00, transp=20)
plotshape(crossover(wt2, wt1) and osLevel1 ? wt1 : na, title="Neg Crossover", location=location.absolute, style=shape.cross, size=size.tiny, color=red, transp=20)
plotshape(crossover(wt1, wt2) and wt2 < -59 ? wt2 : na, title="Pos Crossover", location=location.bottom, style=shape.circle, size=size.tiny, color=#3FFF00, transp=20)
plotshape(crossover(wt2, wt1) and wt1 > 59 ? wt2 : na, title="Neg Crossover", location=location.top, style=shape.circle, size=size.tiny, color=red, transp=20)

buy= crossover(wt1,wt2) // Define our buy/sell conditions, using pine inbuilt functions.
sell= crossover(wt2,wt1)
ordersize=floor(strategy.equity/close) // To dynamically calculate the order size as the account equity increases or decreases.
strategy.entry("long",strategy.long,ordersize,when=buy) // Buys when buy condition met
strategy.close("long", when = sell ) // Closes position when sell condition met
strategy.entry("short",strategy.short,ordersize,when=sell)
strategy.close("short",when = buy )

//soch RSI with divergences
smoothKw = input(3, minval=1)
smoothDw = input(3, minval=1)
lengthRSIw = input(14, minval=1)
lengthStochw = input(14, minval=1)
uselogw = input(true, title="Log")
srcInw = input(close,  title="Source")
showdivsw = input(true, title="Show Divergences")
showhiddenw = input(false, title="Show Hidden Divergences")
showchanw = input(false, title="Show Divergences Channel")


srcw = uselogw ? log(srcInw) : srcInw
rsi1w = rsi(srcw, lengthRSIw)
kkw = sma(stoch(rsi1w, rsi1w, rsi1w, lengthStochw), smoothKw)
dw = sma(kkw, smoothDw)
hmw = input(false, title="Use Average of both K & D")
kw = hmw ? avg(kkw, dw) : kkw

aw = plot(kkw, color=blue, linewidth=1, transp=0, title="K")
bw = plot(dw, color=orange, linewidth=1, transp=0, title="D")
fw = kkw >= dw ? blue : orange
fill(aw, bw, title="KD Fill", color=white)


//------------------------------
//@RicardoSantos' Divergence Script

f_top_fractal(_src)=>_src[4] < _src[2] and _src[3] < _src[2] and _src[2] > _src[1] and _src[2] > _src[0]
f_bot_fractal(_src)=>_src[4] > _src[2] and _src[3] > _src[2] and _src[2] < _src[1] and _src[2] < _src[0]
f_fractalize(_src)=>f_top_fractal(_src) ? 1 : f_bot_fractal(_src) ? -1 : 0
//-------------------------
fractal_top = f_fractalize(kw) > 0 ? kw[2] : na
fractal_bot = f_fractalize(kw) < 0 ? kw[2] : na

high_prev = valuewhen(fractal_top, kw[2], 0)[2]
high_price = valuewhen(fractal_top, high[2], 0)[2]
low_prev = valuewhen(fractal_bot, kw[2], 0)[2]
low_price = valuewhen(fractal_bot, low[2], 0)[2]

regular_bearish_diva = fractal_top and high[2] > high_price and kw[2] < high_prev
hidden_bearish_diva = fractal_top and high[2] < high_price and kw[2] > high_prev
regular_bullish_diva = fractal_bot and low[2] < low_price and kw[2] > low_prev
hidden_bullish_diva = fractal_bot and low[2] > low_price and kw[2] < low_prev
//-------------------------
plot(showchanw?fractal_top:na, title="Top Div Channel", offset=-2, color=gray)
plot(showchanw?fractal_bot:na, title="Bottom Div Channel", offset=-2, color=gray)

col1 = regular_bearish_diva ? red : hidden_bearish_diva and showhiddenw ? red : na
col2 = regular_bullish_diva ? green : hidden_bullish_diva and showhiddenw ? green : na
col3 = regular_bearish_diva ? red : hidden_bearish_diva and showhiddenw ? red : showchanw ? gray : na
col4 = regular_bullish_diva ? green : hidden_bullish_diva and showhiddenw ? green : showchanw ? gray : na

plot(title='H F', series=showdivsw and fractal_top ? kw[2] : na, color=col1, linewidth=2, offset=-2)
plot(title='L F', series=showdivsw and fractal_bot ? kw[2] : na, color=col2, linewidth=2, offset=-2)
plot(title='H D', series=showdivsw and fractal_top ? kw[2] : na, style=circles, color=col3, linewidth=3, offset=-2)
plot(title='L D', series=showdivsw and fractal_bot ? kw[2] : na, style=circles, color=col4, linewidth=3, offset=-2)

plotshape(title='+RBD', series=showdivsw and regular_bearish_diva ? kw[2] : na, text='R', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.absolute, color=red, textcolor=white, offset=-2)
plotshape(title='+HBD', series=showdivsw and hidden_bearish_diva and showhiddenw ? kw[2] : na, text='H', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.absolute, color=red, textcolor=white, offset=-2)
plotshape(title='-RBD', series=showdivsw and regular_bullish_diva ? kw[2] : na, text='R', style=shape.labelup, location=location.absolute, color=green, textcolor=white, offset=-2)
plotshape(title='-HBD', series=showdivsw and hidden_bullish_diva  and showhiddenw ? kw[2] : na, text='H', style=shape.labelup, location=location.absolute, color=green, textcolor=white, offset=-2)


//money flow
colorRed = #ff0000
colorGreen = #03ff00

ma(matype, src, length) =>
    if matype == "RMA"
        rma(src, length)
    else
        if matype == "SMA"
            sma(src, length)
        else
            if matype == "EMA"
                ema(src, length)
            else
                if matype == "WMA"
                    wma(src, length)
                else
                    if matype == "VWMA"
                        vwma(src, length)
                    else
                        src

rsiMFIperiod = input(60, "RSI+MFI Period")
rsiMFIMultiplier = input(190, "RSI+MFI Area multiplier")
MFRSIMA = input(defval="SMA", title="MFRSIMA", options=["RMA", "SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "VWMA"])

candleValue = (close - open) / (high - low)
MVC = ma(MFRSIMA, candleValue, rsiMFIperiod)
color_area = MVC > 0 ? green : red

RSIMFIplot = plot(MVC * rsiMFIMultiplier, title="RSI+MFI Area", color=color_area, transp=35)
fill(RSIMFIplot, plot(0), color_area, transp=50)

//rsi
//Bullish Divergence (green triangle)
//Hidden Bullish Divergence (green circle)
//Bearish Divergence (red triangle)
//Hidden Bearish Divergence (red circle)

lend = 14
bearish_div_rsi = input(60, "Min Bearish RSI",  minval=50, maxval=100)
bullish_div_rsi = input(40, "Max Bullish RSI",  minval=0, maxval=50)

// RSI code
rsi = rsi(close, lend)
plot(rsi,  color=#6DFFE1, linewidth=2, transp=0, title="RSI")

// DIVS code
xbars = 60
hb = abs(highestbars(rsi, xbars)) // Finds bar with highest value in last X bars
lb = abs(lowestbars(rsi, xbars)) // Finds bar with lowest value in last X bars

// Defining variable values, mandatory in Pine 3
max = na
max_rsi = na
min = na
min_rsi = na
bearish_div = na
bullish_div = na
hidden_bearish_div = na
hidden_bullish_div = na
div_alert = na
hidden_div_alert = na

// If bar with lowest / highest is current bar, use it's value
max := hb == 0 ? close : na(max[1]) ? close : max[1]
max_rsi := hb == 0 ? rsi : na(max_rsi[1]) ? rsi : max_rsi[1]
min := lb == 0 ? close : na(min[1]) ? close : min[1]
min_rsi := lb == 0 ? rsi : na(min_rsi[1]) ? rsi : min_rsi[1]

// Compare high of current bar being examined with previous bar's high
// If curr bar high is higher than the max bar high in the lookback window range
if close > max // we have a new high
    max := close // change variable "max" to use current bar's high value
if rsi > max_rsi // we have a new high
    max_rsi := rsi // change variable "max_rsi" to use current bar's RSI value
if close < min // we have a new low
    min := close // change variable "min" to use current bar's low value
if rsi < min_rsi // we have a new low
    min_rsi := rsi // change variable "min_rsi" to use current bar's RSI value

// Detects divergences between price and indicator with 1 candle delay so it filters out repeating divergences
if (max[1] > max[2]) and (rsi[1] < max_rsi) and (rsi <= rsi[1]) and (rsi[1] >= bearish_div_rsi)
    bearish_div := true
	div_alert := true
if (min[1] < min[2]) and (rsi[1] > min_rsi) and (rsi >= rsi[1]) and (rsi[1] <= bullish_div_rsi)
    bullish_div := true
	div_alert := true
// Hidden divergences
if (max[1] < max[2]) and (rsi[1] < max_rsi)
	hidden_bearish_div := true
	hidden_div_alert := true
if (min[1] > min[2]) and (rsi[1] > min_rsi)
	hidden_bullish_div := true
	hidden_div_alert := true
// Alerts
alertcondition(div_alert, title='RSI Divergence', message='RSI Divergence')
alertcondition(hidden_div_alert, title='Hidden RSI Divergence', message='Hidden RSI Divergence')

// Plots divergences with offest
plotshape((bearish_div ? rsi[1] + 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.diamond, color=#ff0000, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bear Div")
plotshape((bullish_div ? rsi[1] - 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.diamond, color=#00ff01, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bull Div")
plotshape((hidden_bearish_div ? rsi[1] + 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.circle, color=#ff0000, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bear hDiv")
plotshape((hidden_bullish_div ? rsi[1] - 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.circle, color=#00ff01, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bull hDiv")


//wave divergences
WTCross = cross(wt1, wt2)
WTCrossUp = wt2 - wt1 <= 0
WTCrossDown = wt2 - wt1 >= 0
WTFractal_top = f_fractalize(wt1) > 0 and wt1[2] ? wt1[2] : na
WTFractal_bot = f_fractalize(wt1) < 0 and wt1[2] ? wt1[2] : na

WTHigh_prev  = valuewhen(WTFractal_top, wt1[2], 0)[2]
WTHigh_price = valuewhen(WTFractal_top, high[2], 0)[2]
WTLow_prev  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bot, wt1, 0)[2]
WTLow_price  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bot, low[2], 0)[2]

WTRegular_bearish_div = WTFractal_top and high[2] > WTHigh_price and wt1[2] < WTHigh_prev
WTRegular_bullish_div = WTFractal_bot and low[2] < WTLow_price and wt1[2] > WTLow_prev

bearWTSignal = WTRegular_bearish_div and WTCrossDown
bullWTSignal = WTRegular_bullish_div and WTCrossUp

WTCol1 = bearWTSignal ? #ff0000 : na
WTCol2 = bullWTSignal ? #00FF00EB : na

plot(series = WTFractal_top ? wt1[2] : na, title='Bearish Divergence', color=WTCol1, linewidth=5, transp=60)
plot(series = WTFractal_bot ? wt1[2] : na, title='Bullish Divergence', color=WTCol2, linewidth=5, transp=60)


//2nd wave
WTFractal_topa = f_fractalize(wt2) > 0 and wt2[2] ? wt2[2] : na
WTFractal_bota = f_fractalize(wt2) < 0 and wt2[2] ? wt2[2] : na

WTHigh_preva  = valuewhen(WTFractal_topa, wt2[2], 0)[2]
WTHigh_pricea = valuewhen(WTFractal_topa, high[2], 0)[2]
WTLow_preva  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bota, wt2, 0)[2]
WTLow_pricea  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bota, low[2], 0)[2]


WTRegular_bearish_diva = WTFractal_topa and high[2] > WTHigh_pricea and wt2[2] < WTHigh_preva
WTRegular_bullish_diva = WTFractal_bota and low[2] < WTLow_pricea and wt2[2] > WTLow_preva

bearWTSignala = WTRegular_bearish_diva and WTCrossDown
bullWTSignala = WTRegular_bullish_diva and WTCrossUp

WTCol1a = bearWTSignala ? #ff0000 : na
WTCol2a = bullWTSignala ? #00FF00EB : na

plot(series = WTFractal_topa ? wt2[2] : na, title='Bearish Divergence', color=WTCol1a, linewidth=5, transp=60)
plot(series = WTFractal_bota ? wt2[2] : na, title='Bullish Divergence', color=WTCol2a, linewidth=5, transp=60)