移動平均と無限のインパルス応答線戦略を組み合わせた

作者: リン・ハーンチャオチャン, 日付: 2024-01-23 15:46:48
タグ:

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概要

これは,移動平均値,無限のインパルス応答線 (IIR) と適応線形移動平均値 (ALMA) の組み合わせによる定量戦略です.この戦略は,多くの指標を組み合わせて,トレーダーに豊富な取引信号を提供します.

戦略原則

戦略の主な構成要素は以下のとおりである.

  1. 簡単な移動平均値 (SMA),ALMA,IIRの組み合わせを使用して,取引入場のタイミングとして,それらの間の交差信号を検出します.

  2. 異なる期間の3つのIIRを使用して,価格が圧縮状態にあるかどうかを判断するために,それらの間の距離を計算します.圧縮状態は変動が減少することを表し,しばしば重要な価格変化を予告します.

  3. IIRの傾斜を判断すると,傾斜が上昇すると緑色になり,落ちると青色になります.

  4. SMA間の距離が拡大しているかどうかを計算します.そうであれば,ファン拡大を表す特別なマークを作成します. 通常は価格がトレンド状態に入っていることを意味します.

  5. 取引シグナルを補完するために,相対強度指数 (RSI) の過剰購入と過剰販売のシグナルを組み合わせます.

上記のセクションの組み合わせにより,戦略は比較的包括的で豊富な取引入口,判断,終了信号を提供することができます.

利点分析

この戦略の最大の利点は,指標の組み合わせが包括的で豊かであり,トレンド判断と変動率,過剰購入/過剰販売状態の両方を考慮し,取引決定のための多次元的な参照を提供します.

また,パラメータや指標が簡単に調整され,最適化され,ユーザーが自分のニーズに応じて適切な指標やパラメータを有効にすることができるという利点もあります.

リスク管理の観点から,この戦略は,価格変動によって引き起こされる誤った信号の確率を減らすため,高速移動平均と遅い移動平均の両方に注意を払っています.

リスク分析

この戦略の主なリスクは,

  1. 指示値との間の衝突を容易に引き起こすには複雑すぎるため,パラメータの不適切な組み合わせは過剰なフィットメントにつながる可能性があります.

  2. 複数の移動平均システムを採用すると,市場が激しく動揺する (例えば大きな経済出来事など) 場合,依然として大きな損失が生じる.

  3. 十分な深層のバックテストがない場合,実際の取引では生存偏差リスクがある可能性があります.

実際にはリスク管理に注意を払い,ポジションサイズを適切に調整する必要があります.戦略の実用的な有効性を確保するために,より長い時間枠とより大きなデータセットで複数のバックテストを実施する必要があります.

戦略の最適化

この戦略における指標の複合性と多くのパラメータを考慮すると,次の側面で将来の最適化を行うことができます.

  1. 指標の選択を簡素化し,低相関性や衝突性のある指標を削除する.

  2. IIR移動平均値の選択を最適化し,市場特性をより良く調整する.

  3. クロスオーバー信号の安定性を高めるため,高速移動平均値と遅い移動平均値の組み合わせを最適化する.

  4. 判断を助ける機械学習モデルを増やし,戦略の適応性を向上させる.

  5. 傾向判断の成功率を向上させるため,グローバルインデックスとの相関を最適化する.

結論

柔軟な組み合わせと指標の最適化によって,この戦略は市場状況を比較的包括的に反映し,取引決定のための多次元的なサポートを提供することができます. しかし,実際の取引とデータオーバーフィッティングのリスクはまだあります. 市場の変化に適応するために,戦略を常に最適化し,調整する必要があります.


/*backtest
start: 2023-12-23 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-10 00:00:00
period: 1m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//The plotchar UP/DOWN Arrows  is the crossover of the fastest MA and fastest IIR MAs
//
//The dots at the bottom are the two simple averages crossing over
//
//The count over/under the candles is the count of bars that the SMAs on their
//respective resolution are fanning out.
//
//The colored background indicates a squeeze, lime=kinda tight : green=very tight squeeze.  based on the 3 IIRs
//
//To answer my own question in a forum, looking at the code, i couldn't figure out how to get it from another timeframe
//and run the same calculations with the same results.  My answer in the end was to scale the chosen MA length
//in the corresponding CurrentPeriod/ChosenMAPeriod proportion.  This results in the same line in the same place when browsing through the
//different time resolutions.  Somebody might find this invaluable
//
//The counts are for MA's fanning out, or going parabolic.  Theres IIRs, Almas, one done of the other.  A lot.  
//The arrows above and below bars are from standard RSI numbers for OB/OS
//
//The IIRs changes color depending on their slope, which can be referenced easily with a variable.
//
//The backgrond on a bar-by-bar basis is colored when 2 sets of moving averages are in a squeeze, aka
//when price is consolidating.  
//
//This aims to help the trader combine conditions and entry criteria of the trade and explore these options visually.  
//They detail things from all time-frames on the current one.  I prefer it because of the fractal nature of price-action, both large and small,
//either yesterday or last year.  For best results, go long in short-term trades when the long-term trend is also up.
//and other profitable insights.  This is also a great example of an automation algorith.  
//
//The pretty ribbon is my script called 'Trading With Colors'. Use them together for fanciest results.  55/233 is my Fib Cross (golden/death)  Compare it to the classic 50/200 if
//you get bored.  I believe it simply works better, at least for Crypto.
//
//Evidently, I am a day-trader.  But this yields higher profits on larger time-frames anyways, so do play around with it. Find what works for you.

//Thanks and credit for code snippets goes to:
//matryskowal
//ChrisMoody, probably twice
//Alex Orekhov (everget)
//author=LucF and midtownsk8rguy, for PineCoders
//If you use code from this, real quick search for perhaps the original and give them a shoutout too.  I may have missed something

//Author: Sean Duffy
//@version=4
strategy(title = "Combination Parabolic MA/IIR/ALMA Strategy",
         shorttitle = "MA-QuickE", 
         overlay = true )
        //  calc_on_order_fills = true,
        //  calc_on_every_tick = true,
// Input Variables
showFIBMAs = input(false, type=input.bool, title="═══════════════ Show Fibby MAs ═══════════════")
maRes = input(960, type=input.integer, title="MA-Cross Resolution")
mal1 = input(8, type=input.integer, title="MA#1 Length")
mal2 = input(13, type=input.integer, title="MA#2 Length")
mal3 = input(34, type=input.integer, title="MA#3 Length")
loosePercentClose = input(1.1, type=input.float, title="SMA LooseSqueeze Percent")
showIIRs = input(false, type=input.bool, title="═══════════════════ Show IIRs ═══════════════════")
iirRes = input(60, type=input.integer, title="IIR Resolution")
percentClose = input(title="IIR Squeeze PercentClose", type=input.float, defval=.8)
iirlength1 = input(title="IIR Length 1", type=input.integer, defval=34)
iirlength2 = input(title="IIR Length 2", type=input.integer, defval=144)//input(title="ATR Period", type=input.integer, defval=1)
iirlength3 = input(title="IIR Length 3", type=input.integer, defval=720)//input(title="ATR Period", type=input.integer, defval=1)
showIIR1 = input(true, type=input.bool, title="Show IIR1")
showIIR2 = input(true, type=input.bool, title="Show IIR2")
showIIR3 = input(true, type=input.bool, title="Show IIR3")
showCounts = input(true, type=input.bool, title="═════════════ Show Parabolic MA Counts ════════════")
showSignals = input(true, type=input.bool, title="══════════════ Show Buy/Sell Signals ══════════════")
showBackground = input(true, type=input.bool, title="══════════════ Show Background Colors ══════════════")
//runStrategy = input(true, type=input.bool, title="══════════════ Run Strategy  ══════════════")
debug = input(false, type=input.bool, title="══════════════ Show Debug ══════════════")

barLookbackPeriod = input(title="══ Bar Lookback Period ══", type=input.integer, defval=5)
percentageLookbackPeriod = input(title="══ Percentage Lookback Period ══", type=input.integer, defval=1)

bullcolor = color.green
bearcolor = color.red
color bgcolor = na

var bool slope1Green = na
var bool slope2Green = na
var bool slope3Green = na

var bool buySignal = na
var bool sellSignal = na
var bool bigbuySignal = na
var bool bigsellSignal = na
bool smbuySignal = false
bool smsellSignal = false
var bool insqueeze = na
var bool intightsqueeze = na
var bool infastsqueeze = na
var bool awaitingEntryIn = false

// My counting variables
var int count1 = 0
var float madist1 = 0
var int count2 = 0
var float madist2 = 0
var int sinceSmSignal = 0

var entryPrice = 0.0
var entryBarIndex = 0
var stopLossPrice = 0.0
// var updatedEntryPrice = 0.0
// var alertOpenPosition = false
// var alertClosePosition = false
// var label stopLossPriceLabel = na
// var line stopLossPriceLine = na
positionType = "LONG" // Strategy type, and the only current option

hasOpenPosition = strategy.opentrades != 0
hasNoOpenPosition = strategy.opentrades == 0

strategyClose() =>
    if (hasOpenPosition)
        if positionType == "LONG"
            strategy.close("LONG", when=true)
        else 
            strategy.close("SHORT", when=true)
strategyOpen() =>
    if (hasNoOpenPosition)
        if positionType == "LONG"
            strategy.entry("LONG", strategy.long, when=true)
        else 
            strategy.entry("SHORT", strategy.short, when=true)
checkEntry() =>
    buysignal = false
    if (hasNoOpenPosition)
        strategyOpen()
        buysignal := true
    // if (slope1Green and (trend1Green or trend2Green) and awaitingEntryIn and hasNoOpenPosition)
    //     strategyOpen()
    //     buysignal := true
    buysignal
checkExit() =>
    sellsignal = false
    // if (trend1Green == false and trend2Green == false) // to later have quicker exit strategy
    //     sellsignal := true
    //     strategyClose()
    if (hasOpenPosition)
        sellsignal := true
        strategyClose()
    sellsignal

multiplier(_adjRes, _adjLength) => // returns adjusted length
    multiplier = _adjRes/timeframe.multiplier
    round(_adjLength*multiplier)
    
    
//reset the var variables before new calculations
buySignal := false
sellSignal := false
smbuySignal := false
smsellSignal := false
bigbuySignal := false
bigsellSignal := false

ma1 = sma(close, multiplier(maRes, mal1))
ma2 = sma(close, multiplier(maRes, mal2))
ma3 = sma(close, multiplier(maRes, mal3))


madist1 := abs(ma1 - ma2)
madist2 := abs(ma1 - ma3) // check if MA's are fanning/going parabolic
if (ma1 >= ma2 and ma2 >= ma3 and madist1[0] > madist1[1]) //and abs(dataB - dataC >= madist2)  // dataA must be higher than b, and distance between gaining, same with C
    count1 := count1 + 1
else 
    count1 := 0
if (ma1 <= ma2 and ma2 <= ma3 and madist1[0] > madist1[1])  //<= madist2 and dataB <= dataC) //and abs(dataB - dataC >= madist2)  // dataA must be higher than b, and distance between gaining, same with C
    count2 := count2 + 1
else 
    count2 := 0


crossoverAB = crossover(ma1, ma2) 
crossunderAB = crossunder(ma1, ma2)

plot(showFIBMAs ? ma1 : na, linewidth=3)
plot(showFIBMAs ? ma2 : na)
plot(showFIBMAs ? ma3 : na)


// Fast Squeese Check WORK IN PROGRESS
// 
float singlePercent = close / 100 
if max(madist1, madist2) <= singlePercent*loosePercentClose
    bgcolor := color.yellow
    infastsqueeze := true
else
    infastsqueeze := false



// IIR MOVING AVERAGE
f(a) => a[0] // fixes mutable error
iirma(iirlength, iirsrc) =>
    cf = 2*tan(2*3.14159*(1/iirlength)/2)
    a0 = 8 + 8*cf + 4*pow(cf,2) + pow(cf,3)
    a1 = -24 - 8*cf + 4*pow(cf,2) + 3*pow(cf,3)
    a2 = 24 - 8*cf - 4*pow(cf,2) + 3*pow(cf,3)
    a3 = -8 + 8*cf - 4*pow(cf,2) + pow(cf,3)
    //----
    c = pow(cf,3)/a0
    d0 = -a1/a0
    d1 = -a2/a0
    d2 = -a3/a0
    //----
    out = 0.
    out := nz(c*(iirsrc + iirsrc[3]) + 3*c*(iirsrc[1] + iirsrc[2]) + d0*out[1] + d1*out[2] + d2*out[3],iirsrc)
    f(out)


iirma1 = iirma(multiplier(iirRes, iirlength1), close)
iirma2 = iirma(multiplier(iirRes, iirlength2), close)
iirma3 = iirma(multiplier(iirRes, iirlength3), close)

// adjusts length for current resolution now, length is lengthened/shortened accordingly, upholding exact placement of lines
// iirmaD1 = security(syminfo.tickerid, tostring(iirRes), iirma1, barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_on)
// iirmaD2 = security(syminfo.tickerid, tostring(iirRes), iirma2, barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_on)
// iirmaD3 = security(syminfo.tickerid, tostring(iirRes), iirma3, barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_on)

slope1color = slope1Green ? color.lime : color.blue
slope2color = slope2Green ? color.lime : color.blue
slope3color = slope3Green ? color.lime : color.blue

plot(showIIR1 and showIIRs ? iirma1 : na, title="IIR1", color=slope1color, linewidth=2, transp=30)
plot(showIIR2 and showIIRs ? iirma2 : na, title="IIR2", color=slope2color, linewidth=3, transp=30)
plot(showIIR3 and showIIRs ? iirma3 : na, title="IIR3", color=slope3color, linewidth=4, transp=30)

// checks slope of IIRs to create a boolean variable and and color it differently
if (iirma1[0] >= iirma1[1])
    slope1Green := true
else
    slope1Green := false
if (iirma2[0] >= iirma2[1])
    slope2Green := true
else
    slope2Green := false
if (iirma3[0] >= iirma3[1])
    slope3Green := true
else
    slope3Green := false

// calculate space between IIRs and then if the price jumps above both
//float singlePercent = close / 100  // = a single percent
var float distIIR1 = na
var float distIIR2 = na
distIIR1 := abs(iirma1 - iirma2)
distIIR2 := abs(iirma1 - iirma3)

if (distIIR1[0] < percentClose*singlePercent and close[0] >= iirma1[0])
    if close[0] >= iirma2[0] and close[0] >= iirma3[0]
        bgcolor := color.green
        insqueeze := true
        intightsqueeze := true
    else
        bgcolor := color.lime
        insqueeze := true
        intightsqueeze := false
else
    insqueeze := false
    intightsqueeze := false


// if (true)//sinceSmSignal > 0) //  cutting down on fastest MAs noise
//     sinceSmSignal := sinceSmSignal + 1
//     if (crossoverAB)
//         //checkEntry()
//         //smbuySignal := true
//         sinceSmSignal := 0
//     if (crossunderAB) // and all NOT greennot (slope1Green and slope2Green and slope3Green)
//         //checkExit()
//         //smsellSignal := true
//         sinceSmSignal := 0
// else
//     sinceSmSignal := sinceSmSignal + 1


f_draw_infopanel(_x, _y, _line, _text, _color)=>
    _rep_text = ""
    for _l = 0 to _line
        _rep_text := _rep_text + "\n"
    _rep_text := _rep_text + _text
    var label _la = na
    label.delete(_la)
    _la := label.new(
         x=_x, y=_y, 
         text=_rep_text, xloc=xloc.bar_time, yloc=yloc.price, 
         color=color.black, style=label.style_labelup, textcolor=_color, size=size.normal)

posx = timenow + round(change(time)*60)
posy = highest(50)

// CONSTRUCTION ZONE
// TODO:  program way to eliminate noise and false signals
// MAYBEDO: program it to differentiate between a moving average bump and a cross
//          I think the best way would be to calculate the tangent line... OR
//          Take the slope of both going back a couple bars and if it's close enough, its a bounce off
//          and an excellent entry signal
// program in quickest exit, 2 bars next to eachother both closing under, as to avoid a single wick from
// prompting to close the trade
// Some other time, have it move SMA up or down depending on whether trending up or down.  Then use those MA crosses

//THIS CHECKS THE SLOPE FROM CURRENT PRICE TO BACK 10 BARS
checkSlope(_series) =>  (_series[0]/_series[10])*100 // it now returns it as a percentage

doNewX = input(true, type=input.bool, title="══════════ Show misc MA Cross Strategy ══════════")

iirX = input(555, title="IIRx Length: ", type=input.integer)
iirXperiod = input(30, title="IIRx Period/TF: ", type=input.integer)

iirX2 = input(13, title="IIRx2 Length: ", type=input.integer)
iirX2period = input(5, title="IIRx2 Period/TF: ", type=input.integer) //15

almaXperiod = input(defval=15, title="Alma of IIR1 Period: ", type=input.integer)
almaXalpha = input(title="Alma Alpha Value: ", defval=.7, maxval=.95, type=input.float) // dont forget to try .99
almaXsigma = input(title="Alma Sigma Value: ", defval=500, type=input.float)

iirmaOTF = iirma(multiplier(iirXperiod, iirX), close)
iirma2OTF = iirma(multiplier(iirX2period, iirX2), close)
smaOTF = alma(iirmaOTF, almaXperiod, almaXalpha, almaXsigma) // maybe dont touch, its precise  // I took the ALMA of the IIRMA, and i hope thats not cheating ;)

// I could have removed this.  the multiplier function adjusts the length to fit the current timeframe while displaying the same
// smaXOTF = security(syminfo.tickerid, smaXperiod, smaOTF, barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_on)
// iirmaXOTF = security(syminfo.tickerid, iirXperiod, iirmaOTF, barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_on)
// iirmaX2OTF = security(syminfo.tickerid, iirX2period, iirma2OTF, barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_on)
plot(doNewX ? smaOTF : na, title="FastMA X-Over :  ", color=color.blue, linewidth=1, transp=40)
plot(doNewX ? iirmaOTF : na, title="IIR MAx :  ", color=color.purple, linewidth=1, transp=30)
plot(doNewX ? iirma2OTF : na, title="IIR MAx :  ", color=color.purple, linewidth=2, transp=20)

iirma2Up = checkSlope(iirma2OTF) > 0 // just another slope up/down variable. 

//calculate spaces between averages
distiiralma = abs(iirmaOTF - smaOTF)

crossoverFast = crossover(iirmaOTF, smaOTF) // and (iirmaOTF[1] <= smaOTF[1])
crossunderFast = crossunder(iirmaOTF, smaOTF) // and (iirmaOTF[1] >= smaOTF[1])

if (crossoverFast and iirma2Up == true and infastsqueeze == false and intightsqueeze == false) // and (count1 != 0))// or close[0] < (lowest(barLookbackPeriod) + singlePercent*3))) // must be at most a few percent up from a recent low.  Avoid buying highs :P
    buySignal := true
    strategyOpen()
    // if (slope1Green and slope2Green and slope3Green and infastsqueeze == false)
    //     checkEntry()
if (crossunderFast)
    sellSignal := true
    checkExit()

// I feel like I didn't cite the OG author for this panel correctly. I hope I did, but there are extentions of his/her work in multiple places.
// I could have gotten it confused.
if (debug)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 18, "distiiralma from IIR: " + tostring(distiiralma), color.lime)
    //f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 16, "distiirs: " + tostring(distiirX1), color.lime)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 14, "Value of iirmaOTF: " + tostring(iirmaOTF), color.lime)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 6, "slope X: " + tostring(abs(100 - checkSlope(iirmaOTF))), color.lime)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 12, "value of smaOTF: " + tostring(smaOTF), color.lime)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 6, "slopeAlma: " + tostring(abs(100 - checkSlope(smaOTF))), color.lime)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 2, "slopeIIR2 " + tostring(abs(100 - checkSlope(iirma2OTF))), color.lime)
    f_draw_infopanel(posx, posy, 2, "slopeIIR2 " + tostring(abs(100 - checkSlope(iirma2OTF))), color.lime)


// I kept this separate because it discludes the calculations.  Its hard to hold a train of thought while fishing for the right section
bgcolor(showBackground ? bgcolor : na)
plotshape(showSignals ? buySignal : na, location=location.bottom, style=shape.circle, text="", size=size.tiny, color=color.blue, transp=60)
plotshape(showSignals ? sellSignal : na, location=location.bottom, style=shape.circle, text="", size=size.tiny, color=color.red, transp=60)
plotchar(showSignals and smbuySignal, title="smBuy", location=location.belowbar, char='↑', size=size.tiny, color=color.green, transp=0)
plotchar(showSignals and smsellSignal, title="smSell", location=location.abovebar, char='↓', size=size.tiny, color=color.orange, transp=0)

// can not display a variable. Can only match the count to a corresponding plotchar
// to display a non-constant variable, use the debug box, which was so kindly offered up by our community.
plotchar(showCounts and count1==1, title='', char='1', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==2, title='', char='2', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==3, title='', char='3', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==4, title='', char='4', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==5, title='', char='5', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==6, title='', char='6', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==7, title='', char='7', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==8, title='', char='8', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1==9, title='', char='9', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count1>=10, title='', char='$', location=location.belowbar, color=#2c9e2c, transp=0)
    
plotchar(showCounts and count2==1, title='', char='1', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==2, title='', char='2', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==3, title='', char='3', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==4, title='', char='4', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==5, title='', char='5', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==6, title='', char='6', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==7, title='', char='7', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==8, title='', char='8', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2==9, title='', char='9', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)
plotchar(showCounts and count2>=10, title='', char='$', location=location.abovebar, color=#e91e63, transp=0)

showRSIind = input(true, type=input.bool, title="═══════════════════ Show RSI Arrows ═══════════════════")
// Get user input
rsiSource = input(title="RSI Source", type=input.source, defval=close)
rsiLength = input(title="RSI Length", type=input.integer, defval=14)
rsiOverbought = input(title="RSI Overbought Level", type=input.integer, defval=80)
rsiOversold = input(title="RSI Oversold Level", type=input.integer, defval=20)
// Get RSI value
rsiValue = rsi(rsiSource, rsiLength)
isRsiOB = rsiValue >= rsiOverbought
isRsiOS = rsiValue <= rsiOversold
// Plot signals to chart
plotshape(isRsiOB, title="Overbought", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, transp=0, style=shape.triangledown)
plotshape(isRsiOS, title="Oversold", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, transp=0, style=shape.triangleup)

//reset the var variables before new calculations
buySignal := false
sellSignal := false
smbuySignal := false
smsellSignal := false
bigbuySignal := false
bigsellSignal := false


もっと