Trend Mengikuti Strategi Berdasarkan RSI dan Purata Bergerak Bertimbang

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tarikh: 2023-12-25 13:28:24
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Ringkasan

Strategi ini berdasarkan dua penunjuk yang terkenal: Indeks Kekuatan Relatif (RSI) dan Purata Bergerak Bertimbang (WMA). Ia mengenal pasti trend pasaran dan mengikuti arahnya. RSI menilai tahap overbought / oversold, WMA menentukan trend harga. Gabungan kedua-duanya dapat menapis isyarat yang tidak relevan dengan berkesan dan meningkatkan keuntungan. Ini adalah strategi jangka menengah / panjang, ditambah dengan kaedah pengurusan wang untuk menyesuaikan saiz kedudukan berdasarkan keuntungan / kerugian.

Logika Strategi

Indikator RSI

RSI adalah salah satu penunjuk overbought / oversold yang paling terkenal. Rumusnya adalah:

$$RSI = 100 - \frac{100}{1+\frac{AvgGain}{AvgLoss}}$$

Di mana AvgGain adalah purata hari yang ditutup di atas terbuka selama x hari yang lalu, AvgLoss adalah purata nilai mutlak hari yang ditutup di bawah terbuka selama x hari yang lalu.

Strategi ini menetapkan tempoh RSI sebagai 20 untuk menilai trend. RSI di atas 60 menghasilkan isyarat panjang, RSI di bawah 40 menghasilkan isyarat pendek.

Purata Bergerak Bertimbang (WMA)

Berbanding dengan SMA, WMA memberi berat kepada harga baru-baru ini lebih berat.

$$WMA = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^n w_i x_i}{\sum_{i=1}^n w_i}$

Di mana w adalah berat, w berkembang secara eksponensial dengan meningkatkan i. Strategi ini menggunakan formula berat berikut:

$$w = \begin{cases} 100/(4+(n-4)1.3), & i <= 3 \ 1.3w, & i > 3 kes

Iaitu berat adalah sama dalam 3 hari terakhir, dan meningkat 1.3 kali setiap 1 hari ke belakang.

Panjang WMA dalam strategi ini ialah 20.

Isyarat Strategi

Isyarat panjang: RSI > 60 dan ROC 20 hari WMA < -1 Isyarat pendek: RSI < 40 dan ROC 20 hari WMA > 1

Di mana ROC 20 hari WMA dikira sebagai:

$$ROC = (WMA_{hari ini}/WMA_{20_days_ago} - 1) \ kali 100$$

Kelebihan

  • Gunakan RSI untuk menentukan arah trend, mengelakkan kehilangan wang di pasaran whipsaw
  • WMA menimbang harga terkini untuk mengurangkan bunyi bising dan mengenal pasti trend utama
  • Gabungan RSI dan WMA ROC menapis isyarat yang tidak relevan
  • Multiple ATR berturut-turut mengambil keuntungan, mengambil keuntungan fleksibel
  • Pengurusan wang menyesuaikan saiz kedudukan berdasarkan keuntungan / kerugian, mengawal risiko

Risiko

  • Tetapan parameter yang tidak betul boleh meningkatkan kekerapan dagangan
  • Tetapan stop loss yang tidak betul boleh meningkatkan kerugian
  • Sebagai trend mengikut strategi, tidak sesuai untuk pasaran terikat julat
  • Perhatikan perubahan persekitaran makro, campur tangan manual jika perlu

Arahan Penambahbaikan

  • Uji panjang RSI, panjang WMA, ambang ROC untuk mencari set parameter optimum
  • Uji kaedah pengurusan wang yang berbeza untuk mencari rancangan penyesuaian kedudukan yang terbaik
  • Tambah penunjuk lain untuk penapisan isyarat lanjut
  • Menggabungkan strategi stop loss untuk mengehadkan risiko kerugian setiap perdagangan
  • Mengoptimumkan mengambil strategi keuntungan untuk memaksimumkan keuntungan semasa trend

Kesimpulan

Strategi ini menggabungkan RSI dan WMA untuk menentukan arah trend, bertujuan untuk mendapat keuntungan daripada trend utama dalam jangka sederhana / panjang. Pengurusan wang dan mengambil keuntungan strategi juga digunakan untuk mengawal risiko. Ia mempunyai nilai praktikal tetapi tetapan parameter dan mekanisme hentian kerugian memerlukan ujian dan pengoptimuman berterusan untuk hasil yang lebih baik. Pelabur harus menilai keadaan, campur tangan secara manual jika perlu, dan memastikan risiko yang boleh dikawal.


/*backtest
start: 2022-12-24 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-06 05:20:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © gsanson66


//This code is based on RSI and a backed weighted MA
//@version=5
strategy("RSI + MA BACKTESTING", overlay=true, initial_capital=1000, default_qty_type=strategy.fixed, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.18, slippage=3)


//------------------------TOOL TIPS---------------------------//

t1 = "Choice between a Standard MA (SMA) or a backed-weighted MA (RWMA) which permits to minimize the impact of short term reversal. Default is RWMA."
t2 = "Value of RSI to send a LONG or a SHORT signal. RSI above 60 is a LONG signal and RSI below 40 is a SHORT signal."
t3 = "Rate of Change Value of selected MA to send a LONG or a SHORT signal. By default : ROC MA below -1 is a LONG signal and ROC MA above 1 is a SHORT signal"
t4 = "Threshold value to trigger trailing Take Profit. This threshold is calculated as a multiple of the ATR (Average True Range)."
t5 = "Percentage value of trailing Take Profit. This Trailing TP follows the profit if it increases, remaining selected percentage below it, but stops if the profit decreases."
t6 = "Each gain or losse (relative to the previous reference) in an amount equal to this fixed ratio will change quantity of orders."
t7 = "The amount of money to be added to or subtracted from orders once the fixed ratio has been reached."


//------------------------FUNCTIONS---------------------------//

//@function which calculate a retro weighted moving average to minimize the impact of short term reversal
rwma(source, length) =>
    sum = 0.0
    denominator = 0.0
    weight = 0.0
    weight_x = 100/(4+(length-4)*1.30)
    weight_y = 1.30*weight_x
    for i=0 to length - 1
        if i <= 3
            weight := weight_x
        else
            weight := weight_y
        sum := sum + source[i] * weight
        denominator := denominator + weight
    rwma = sum/denominator

//@function which permits the user to choose a moving average type
ma(source, length, type) =>
    switch type
        "SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)
        "RWMA" => rwma(source, length)

//@function Displays text passed to `txt` when called.
debugLabel(txt, color) =>
    label.new(bar_index, high, text = txt, color=color, style = label.style_label_lower_right, textcolor = color.black, size = size.small)

//@function which looks if the close date of the current bar falls inside the date range
inBacktestPeriod(start, end) => (time >= start) and (time <= end)


//--------------------------------USER INPUTS-------------------------------//

//Technical parameters
rsiLengthInput = input.int(20, minval=1, title="RSI Length", group="RSI Settings")
maTypeInput = input.string("RWMA", title="MA Type", options=["SMA", "RWMA"], group="MA Settings", inline="1", tooltip=t1)
maLenghtInput = input.int(20, minval=1, title="MA Length", group="MA Settings", inline="1")
rsiLongSignalValue = input.int(60, minval=1, maxval=99, title="RSI Long Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="3")
rsiShortSignalValue = input.int(40, minval=1, maxval=99, title="RSI Short Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="3", tooltip=t2)
rocMovAverLongSignalValue = input.float(-1, maxval=0, title="ROC MA Long Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="4")
rocMovAverShortSignalValue = input.float(1, minval=0, title="ROC MA Short Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="4", tooltip=t3)
//TP Activation and Trailing TP
takeProfitActivationInput = input.float(5, minval=1.0, title="TP activation in multiple of ATR", group="Strategy parameters", tooltip=t4)
trailingStopInput = input.float(3, minval=0, title="Trailing TP in percentage", group="Strategy parameters", tooltip=t5)
//Money Management
fixedRatio = input.int(defval=400, minval=1, title="Fixed Ratio Value ($)", group="Money Management", tooltip=t6)
increasingOrderAmount = input.int(defval=200, minval=1, title="Increasing Order Amount ($)", group="Money Management", tooltip=t7)
//Backtesting period
startDate = input(title="Start Date", defval=timestamp("1 Jan 2018 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period")
endDate = input(title="End Date", defval=timestamp("1 July 2024 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period")


//------------------------------VARIABLES INITIALISATION-----------------------------//

float rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLengthInput)
float ma = ma(close, maLenghtInput, maTypeInput)
float roc_ma = ((ma/ma[maLenghtInput]) - 1)*100
float atr = ta.atr(20)
var float trailingStopOffset = na
var float trailingStopActivation = na
var float trailingStop = na
var float stopLoss = na
var bool long = na
var bool short = na
var bool bufferTrailingStopDrawing = na
float theoreticalStopPrice = na
bool inRange = na
equity = math.abs(strategy.equity - strategy.openprofit)
strategy.initial_capital = 50000
var float capital_ref = strategy.initial_capital
var float cashOrder = strategy.initial_capital * 0.95


//------------------------------CHECKING SOME CONDITIONS ON EACH SCRIPT EXECUTION-------------------------------//

//Checking if the date belong to the range
inRange := true

//Checking performances of the strategy
if equity > capital_ref + fixedRatio
    spread = (equity - capital_ref)/fixedRatio
    nb_level = int(spread)
    increasingOrder = nb_level * increasingOrderAmount
    cashOrder := cashOrder + increasingOrder
    capital_ref := capital_ref + nb_level*fixedRatio
if equity < capital_ref - fixedRatio
    spread = (capital_ref - equity)/fixedRatio
    nb_level = int(spread)
    decreasingOrder = nb_level * increasingOrderAmount
    cashOrder := cashOrder - decreasingOrder
    capital_ref := capital_ref - nb_level*fixedRatio

//Checking if we close all trades in case where we exit the backtesting period
if strategy.position_size!=0 and not inRange
    debugLabel("END OF BACKTESTING PERIOD : we close the trade", color=color.rgb(116, 116, 116))
    strategy.close_all()
    bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na
    trailingStop := na
    short := false
    long := false


//------------------------------STOP LOSS AND TRAILING STOP ACTIVATION----------------------------//

// We handle the stop loss and trailing stop activation 
if (low <= stopLoss or high >= trailingStopActivation) and long
    if high >= trailingStopActivation
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := true
    else if low <= stopLoss
        long := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na
if (low <= trailingStopActivation or high >= stopLoss) and short
    if low <= trailingStopActivation
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := true
    else if high >= stopLoss
        short := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na


//-------------------------------------TRAILING STOP--------------------------------------//

// If the traling stop is activated, we manage its plotting with the bufferTrailingStopDrawing
if bufferTrailingStopDrawing and long
    theoreticalStopPrice := high - trailingStopOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if na(trailingStop)
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if theoreticalStopPrice > trailingStop
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if low <= trailingStop
        trailingStop := na
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        long := false
if bufferTrailingStopDrawing and short
    theoreticalStopPrice := low + trailingStopOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if na(trailingStop)
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if theoreticalStopPrice < trailingStop
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if high >= trailingStop
        trailingStop := na
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        short := false


//---------------------------------LONG CONDITION--------------------------//

if rsi >= 60 and roc_ma <= rocMovAverLongSignalValue and inRange and not long
    if short
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        stopLoss := na
        trailingStopActivation := na
        trailingStop := na
        short := false
    trailingStopActivation := close + takeProfitActivationInput*atr
    trailingStopOffset := (trailingStopActivation * trailingStopInput/100) / syminfo.mintick
    stopLoss := close - 3*atr
    long := true
    qty = cashOrder/close
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long", "Long", stop = stopLoss, trail_price = trailingStopActivation,
                 trail_offset = trailingStopOffset)


//--------------------------------SHORT CONDITION-------------------------------//

if rsi <= 40 and roc_ma >= rocMovAverShortSignalValue and inRange and not short
    if long
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        stopLoss := na
        trailingStopActivation := na
        trailingStop := na
        long := false
    trailingStopActivation := close - takeProfitActivationInput*atr
    trailingStopOffset := (trailingStopActivation * trailingStopInput/100) / syminfo.mintick
    stopLoss := close + 3*atr
    short := true
    qty = cashOrder/close
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty)
    strategy.exit("Exit Short", "Short", stop = stopLoss, trail_price = trailingStopActivation,
                 trail_offset = trailingStopOffset)


//--------------------------------PLOTTING ELEMENT---------------------------------//

// Plotting of element in the graph
plotchar(rsi, "RSI", "", location.top, color.rgb(0, 214, 243))
plot(ma, "MA", color.rgb(219, 219, 18))
plotchar(roc_ma, "ROC MA", "", location.top, color=color.orange)
// Visualizer trailing stop and stop loss movement
plot(stopLoss, "SL", color.red, 3, plot.style_linebr)
plot(trailingStopActivation, "Trigger Trail", color.green, 3, plot.style_linebr)
plot(trailingStop, "Trailing Stop",  color.blue, 3, plot.style_linebr)


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