کراس اوور موونگ ایوریج پر مبنی رجحان سے باخبر رہنے کے موافق متوقع قدر کی تشخیص کی حکمت عملی

/*backtest
start: 2023-06-11 00:00:00
end: 2024-06-16 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This Pine Script™ code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © ir0nantc2

//@version=5
strategy("Expected Value Panel", overlay=true)

// ロングエントリー条件 / Long entry condition
longCondition = ta.crossover(ta.sma(close, 14), ta.sma(close, 28))
if (longCondition)
    strategy.entry("My Long Entry Id", strategy.long)

// ショートエントリー条件 / Short entry condition
shortCondition = ta.crossunder(ta.sma(close, 14), ta.sma(close, 28))
if (shortCondition)
    strategy.entry("My Short Entry Id", strategy.short)



// ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
// Please copy the code below and paste it into the strategy where you want to display the expected value.
// 以下のコードをコピーして期待値を表示させたいストラテジーに貼り付けて下さい。
// ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■

// 表示選択 / Display selection
show_performance = input.bool(true, '期待値ON/OFF (Show Expected Value)', group='Expected Value / ©ir0nantc2')
transparency = input.int(50, '透過度 (Transparency)', minval=0, maxval=100, group='Expected Value / ©ir0nantc2')
prec = 2

// 背景色 / Background color
bg_color(value) =>
    na(value) ? color.new(color.gray, transparency) : value > 0.0 ? color.new(color.green, transparency) :
   value < 0.0 ? color.new(color.red, transparency) :color.new(color.gray, transparency)

// 利益と損失の追跡 / Track profits and losses
var float total_monthly_profit = 0.0
var float total_yearly_profit = 0.0

if show_performance
    new_month = month(time) != month(time[1])
    new_year  = year(time)  != year(time[1])
    cur_month_pnl = 0.0, cur_year_pnl  = 0.0
    eq = strategy.equity
    bar_pnl = eq / eq[1] - 1

    // 月次・年次 期待値 / Monthly & Yearly Expected Value
    cur_month_pnl := new_month ? 0.0 : (1 + cur_month_pnl[1]) * (1 + bar_pnl) - 1 
    cur_year_pnl := new_year ? 0.0 : (1 + cur_year_pnl[1]) * (1 + bar_pnl) - 1  
    
    // 年次および月次期待値を格納 / Store monthly and yearly expected values
    var month_pnl  = array.new_float(), var month_time = array.new_int()
    var year_pnl  = array.new_float(), var year_time = array.new_int()
    
    // 期待値計算の変数 / Variables for expected value calculation
    var month_wins = array.new_int(), var month_losses = array.new_int()
    var month_avg_win = array.new_float(), var month_avg_loss = array.new_float()
    var year_wins = array.new_int(), var year_losses = array.new_int()
    var year_avg_win = array.new_float(), var year_avg_loss = array.new_float()

    // 月次および年次期待値の配列更新 / Update arrays for monthly and yearly expected values
    bool last_computed = false
    if (not na(cur_month_pnl[1]) and (new_month or barstate.islastconfirmedhistory))
        if (last_computed and array.size(month_pnl) > 0)
            array.pop(month_pnl), array.pop(month_time)
            array.pop(month_wins), array.pop(month_losses)
            array.pop(month_avg_win), array.pop(month_avg_loss)

        array.push(month_pnl, cur_month_pnl[1]), array.push(month_time, time[1])
        array.push(month_wins, 0), array.push(month_losses, 0)
        array.push(month_avg_win, 0.0), array.push(month_avg_loss, 0.0)
    
    if (not na(cur_year_pnl[1]) and (new_year or barstate.islastconfirmedhistory))
        if (last_computed and array.size(year_pnl) > 0)
            array.pop(year_pnl), array.pop(year_time)
            array.pop(year_wins), array.pop(year_losses)
            array.pop(year_avg_win), array.pop(year_avg_loss)

        array.push(year_pnl, cur_year_pnl[1]), array.push(year_time, time[1])
        array.push(year_wins, 0), array.push(year_losses, 0)
        array.push(year_avg_win, 0.0), array.push(year_avg_loss, 0.0)

    last_computed := barstate.islastconfirmedhistory ? true : last_computed

    // 勝ち取引と負け取引を追跡 / Track winning and losing trades
    if (strategy.closedtrades > 0 and na(strategy.closedtrades[1]) == false)
        closed_profit = strategy.netprofit - strategy.netprofit[1]
        if closed_profit > 0
            if array.size(month_wins) > 0
                wins = array.get(month_wins, array.size(month_wins) - 1) + 1
                avg_win = (array.get(month_avg_win, array.size(month_avg_win) - 1) * (wins - 1) + closed_profit) / wins
                array.set(month_wins, array.size(month_wins) - 1, wins)
                array.set(month_avg_win, array.size(month_avg_win) - 1, avg_win)
            if array.size(year_wins) > 0
                wins = array.get(year_wins, array.size(year_wins) - 1) + 1
                avg_win = (array.get(year_avg_win, array.size(year_avg_win) - 1) * (wins - 1) + closed_profit) / wins
                array.set(year_wins, array.size(year_wins) - 1, wins)
                array.set(year_avg_win, array.size(year_avg_win) - 1, avg_win)
        else
            if array.size(month_losses) > 0
                losses = array.get(month_losses, array.size(month_losses) - 1) + 1
                avg_loss = (array.get(month_avg_loss, array.size(month_avg_loss) - 1) * (losses - 1) + closed_profit) / losses
                array.set(month_losses, array.size(month_losses) - 1, losses)
                array.set(month_avg_loss, array.size(month_avg_loss) - 1, avg_loss)
            if array.size(year_losses) > 0
                losses = array.get(year_losses, array.size(year_losses) - 1) + 1
                avg_loss = (array.get(year_avg_loss, array.size(year_avg_loss) - 1) * (losses - 1) + closed_profit) / losses
                array.set(year_losses, array.size(year_losses) - 1, losses)
                array.set(year_avg_loss, array.size(year_avg_loss) - 1, avg_loss)

    // 月次テーブル / Monthly table
    var monthly_table = table(na)
    if (barstate.islastconfirmedhistory)
        monthly_table := table.new(position.bottom_right, columns = 14, rows = array.size(year_time) + 1, border_width = 1)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 0,  0, "",     bgcolor = #bbbbbb00)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 1,  0, "Jan",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 2,  0, "Feb",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 3,  0, "Mar",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 4,  0, "Apr",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 5,  0, "May",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 6,  0, "Jun",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 7,  0, "Jul",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 8,  0, "Aug",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 9,  0, "Sep",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 10, 0, "Oct",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 11, 0, "Nov",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 12, 0, "Dec",  bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 13, 0, "Year", bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
    
        // 年次データの集計 / Collecting yearly data
        var year_total_pnl = array.new_float()
        var year_exp_val = array.new_float()
        
        for yt = 0 to array.size(year_time) - 1
            total_year_wins = 0, total_year_losses = 0
            total_year_avg_win = 0.0, total_year_avg_loss = 0.0
            total_year_pnl = 0.0

            for mt = 1 to 12
                idx = -1
                for j = 0 to array.size(month_time) - 1
                    if year(array.get(month_time, j)) == year(array.get(year_time, yt)) and month(array.get(month_time, j)) == mt
                        idx := j
                        break
                if idx != -1
                    total_year_pnl := total_year_pnl + array.get(month_pnl, idx)
                    total_year_wins := total_year_wins + array.get(month_wins, idx)
                    total_year_losses := total_year_losses + array.get(month_losses, idx)
                    total_year_avg_win := total_year_avg_win + (array.get(month_avg_win, idx) * array.get(month_wins, idx))
                    total_year_avg_loss := total_year_avg_loss + (array.get(month_avg_loss, idx) * array.get(month_losses, idx))
            
            total_year_avg_win := total_year_wins > 0 ? total_year_avg_win / total_year_wins : 0.0
            total_year_avg_loss := total_year_losses > 0 ? total_year_avg_loss / total_year_losses : 0.0
            win_rate = total_year_wins + total_year_losses > 0 ? total_year_wins / (total_year_wins + total_year_losses) : na
            exp_val = win_rate ? (win_rate * total_year_avg_win) - ((1 - win_rate) * math.abs(total_year_avg_loss)) : na
            array.push(year_total_pnl, total_year_pnl)
            array.push(year_exp_val, exp_val)
            
        for yt = 0 to array.size(year_time) - 1
            table.cell(monthly_table, 0,  yt + 1, str.tostring(year(array.get(year_time, yt))), bgcolor = #bbbbbb)
            
            y_color = bg_color(array.get(year_exp_val, yt))
            value_to_display = na(array.get(year_exp_val, yt)) ? "" : str.tostring(math.round(array.get(year_exp_val, yt) * 100, prec))
            table.cell(monthly_table, 13, yt + 1, value_to_display, bgcolor = y_color, text_color=color.new(color.white, 0))
            
        for mt = 0 to array.size(month_time) - 1
            m_row = year(array.get(month_time, mt)) - year(array.get(year_time, 0)) + 1
            m_col = month(array.get(month_time, mt))
            
            if array.size(month_wins) > mt and array.size(month_losses) > mt and array.size(month_avg_win) > mt and array.size(month_avg_loss) > mt
                win_rate = array.get(month_wins, mt) / (array.get(month_wins, mt) + array.get(month_losses, mt))
                exp_val = (win_rate * array.get(month_avg_win, mt)) - ((1 - win_rate) * math.abs(array.get(month_avg_loss, mt)))
                m_color = bg_color(exp_val)
                value_to_display = na(exp_val) ? "" : str.tostring(math.round(exp_val * 100, prec))
                table.cell(monthly_table, m_col, m_row, value_to_display, bgcolor = m_color, text_color=color.new(color.white, 0))
            else
                table.cell(monthly_table, m_col, m_row, "", bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, transparency), text_color=color.new(color.white, 0))
// [EOF]