ChaoZhang
概述
这是一个基于价位行情的交易策略,结合均线指标识别趋势,利用价格形态进行入场。
策略原理
该策略主要基于以下几个方面:
使用EMA均线判断趋势。当89周期EMA和Hull MA均为红色时,判断为 Bear 趋势,只做空;当两条均线均为绿色时,判断为Bull趋势,只做多;当一条为绿一条为红时,判断为震荡,可做多可做空。
使用价格形态识别信号。策略识别多种阳线阴线组合,如单实体线、假突破形态、母子线等,以识别潜在的入场时点。
结合关键支撑阻力位入场。策略同时结合关键的支撑阻力位,进一步验证价格形态信号,避免假突破。
MACD辅助判断。结合MACD指标的柱状线颜色,验证价格形态信号,提高成功率。
采用趋势追踪机制。策略加入趋势追踪模块,能更准确判断趋势转折点,避免追顶和追底。
设定止损止盈点。策略加入了基于ATR的值进行的止损和止盈模块,有助于把握盈亏比。
优势分析
该策略具有以下优势:
基于价格行情,不受指标影响。纯粹基于价位判断,不受复杂指标误导,更接近市场本源。
结合趋势理念,避免追顶追底。加入EMA和Hull MA识别趋势方向,只在趋势方向操作,避免逆势入场。
形态结合指标,提高成功率。价格形态与MACD指标互相验证,可过滤假信号,提高获利概率。
追踪机制可抓大趋势。趋势追踪模块可抓取较大时间周期的趋势,获利空间更大。
有止损止盈机制,可控风险。设定了固定的止损止盈比例,有助于把握盈亏比,控制风险。
风险分析
该策略也存在以下风险:
大周期趋势反转风险。策略只适合在中短线较为明确的趋势内操作,若遇到大周期趋势反转,将Stopped out。可通过放大周期分析大趋势来规避。
价格形态失效风险。价格形态在不同市场环境下的效果差异很大,在某些市场形态无法按预期发挥效用,导致系统停损。可通过对不同市场形态效力的回测来优选适用的形态。
参数优化困难。策略包含多种参数,不同参数组合对结果影响很大,需要大量回测来找到最佳参数,而参数静态设置又面临市场变化的风险。可建立动态参数优化机制来应对。
无法有效控制单笔风险。固定的止损止盈点设置难以把握每笔交易的波动,无法针对性控制单笔盈亏比例。可以引入动态止损算法或风控模块。
优化方向
该策略可以从以下几个方面进行优化:
引入机器学习识别更复杂价格形态。使用深度学习等技术自动识别更多有效形态。
增加自适应性。建立动态参数优化机制,使策略参数可根据实时市场调整,而不是静态设置。
结合更多因子验证信号。加入更多价格行情因子,如成交量、overnight gaps等进行验证,降低被套风险。
引入风控和仓位管理模块。根据阈值自动调整仓位规模,有效控制单笔止损,优化盈亏比。
优化入场机制。可细化趋势判断模块,识别更清晰的趋势震荡节奏,以提高入场成功率。
总结
整体来说,该策略核心优势在于基于价格行情判断,避免依赖指标,最大程度反映市场本质。结合趋势与指标可提高获利概率,加入止盈止损控制风险。但需防大周期趋势反转、价格形态失效等风险。未来可通过机器学习、动态参数优化、风控模块等进行深化,使策略更稳定可靠。
策略源码
/*backtest
start: 2023-08-19 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-18 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
args: [["v_input_1",true]]
*/
//@version=2
// strategy(title="Price Action", shorttitle="Price Action", overlay=true,default_qty_value=2000,initial_capital=1000,currency=currency.USD, pyramiding=1,calc_on_every_tick=true)
// EMA //
HiLoLen = 34
pacL = ema(low,HiLoLen)
pacC = ema(close,HiLoLen)
pacH = ema(high,HiLoLen)
signalMA = ema(close,89)
col1=pacC>signalMA?lime:pacC<signalMA?red:yellow
plot(signalMA, color=col1, title="SignalMA")
// Plot the Price Action Channel (PAC) base on EMA high,low and close//
//L=plot(pacL, color=yellow, linewidth=1, title="High PAC EMA",transp=0)
//C=plot(pacC, color=yellow, style = line, linewidth=1, title="Close PAC EMA",transp=0)
//H=plot(pacH, color=yellow, linewidth=1, title="Low PAC EMA",transp=0)
// HullMA //
n=89
//
n2ma=2*wma(close,round(n/2))
nma=wma(close,n)
diff=n2ma-nma
sqn=round(sqrt(n))
//
n2ma1=2*wma(close[1],round(n/2))
nma1=wma(close[1],n)
diff1=n2ma1-nma1
sqn1=round(sqrt(n))
//
n1=wma(diff,sqn)
n2=wma(diff1,sqn)
condDown = n2 >= n1
condUp = condDown != true
col =condUp ? lime : condDown ? red : yellow
plot(n1,title="Hull MA", color=col,linewidth=1)
// Macd Barcolor
fastlength = 12
slowlength = 26
MACDLength = 9
MACD = ema(close, fastlength) - ema(close, slowlength)
aMACD = ema(MACD, MACDLength)
delta = MACD - aMACD
hisup= iff(delta>delta[1] and delta>0, 1,iff(delta<delta[1], -1, nz(hisup[1], 0)))
hisdown = iff(delta<delta[1] and delta<0, 1,iff(delta>delta[1], -1, nz(hisdown[1], 0)))
//Swing high low//
ktswinghigh=(high<=high[2] and high[1]<=high[2] and high[3]<=high[2] and high[4]<=high[2])// and high<high[1] and high[4]<high[3]) or (high<high[1] and high[1]<high[2] and high[4]<high[2] and high[5]<high[2] and high[3]<high[2])
ktswinghigh3=(high<high[1] and high[1]<high[3] and high[5]<high[3] and high[6]<high[5]and high[2]<high[3] and high[4]<high[3]) or(high<high[3] and high[2]<high[3] and high[1]<high[3] and high[4]<high[3] and high[5]<high[4])
sh=ktswinghigh?high[2]:na
swinghigh = fixnan(sh)
colorsh=swinghigh==swinghigh[1]?white:na
plot(swinghigh,color=colorsh,title="Swing High",style=line,offset=-2)
ktswinglow=(low>=low[2] and low[1]>=low[2] and low[3]>=low[2] and low[4]>=low[2])// and low>low[1] and low[4]>low[3]) or (low>low[1] and low[1]>low[2] and low[4]>low[2] and low[5]>low[2] and low[3]>low[2])
ktswinglow3=low>low[1] and low[1]>low[3] and low[5]>low[3] and low[6]>low[5] and low[2]>low[3] and low[4]>low[3] or (low>low[3] and low[1]>low[3] and low[2]>low[3] and low[4]>low[3] and low[5]>low[4])
sl=ktswinglow?low[2]:na
swinglow = fixnan(sl)
colorsl=swinglow==swinglow[1]?white:na
plot(swinglow,title="Swing Low",color=colorsl,style=line,offset=-2)
// Pinbar FailBreak
ema21=ema(close,13)
beariskpinbar= (close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and ((high>swinghigh and high>high[1] and high>high[2] and high>high[3] and close<swinghigh))// or ((open[2]<ema21[2] or close[2]<ema21[2]) and high>ema21 and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2] and high>high[1] and high>high[2] and high>high[3]))
bullishpibar=(close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and ((low<swinglow and low<low[1] and low<low[2] and low<low[3] and close>swinglow))// or ((open[2]>ema21[2] or close[2]>ema21[2]) and low<ema21 and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2] and low<low[1] and low<low[2] and low<low[3]))
//
Inside(position) => high <= high[position] and low >= low[position]
outsidebar = (high >= high[1] and low <= low[1])
barcolor((high <= high[1] and low >= low[1]) ? white : na)
barcolor(hisup==1 and MACD>0 ? lime: hisdown==1 and MACD<0 ? red : hisup==-1 and MACD>0 ? green: orange )
barcolor(bullishpibar or beariskpinbar ?white:na)
secLast = 1
fakey = (high[1] <= high[2] and low[1] >= low[2] and high > high[2] and close >= low[2] and close < high[2]) or (high[2]<=high[3] and low[2]>=low[3] and high[1]>high[2] and close<high[2] and close>low[3] and high-close>0.75*(high-low))// ? red : na
fakey1 = (high[1] <= high[2] and low[1] >= low[2] and low < low[2] and close > low[2] and close <= high[1]) or (high[2]<=high[3] and low[2]>=low[3] and low[1]<low[2] and close>low[2] and close<high[3] and close-low>0.75*(high-low)) //? lime : na
barcolor(fakey or fakey1?white:na)
//plotshape(beariskpinbar and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) , title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(bullishpibar and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)), title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//insidebar= Inside(secLast)? #FF9800: na
onewhitesoliderbear= close<open and high[1]-close>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (open-close)>2/3*(high-low) and (high[1]>ema21[1] or high>ema21) and open[1]<ema21[1] and close-low<(high-close)*0.3 and (open[2]<ema21[2] or close[2]<ema21[2]) and close<ema21 and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2]
onewwhitesoliderbull= close>open and close-low[1]>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (close-open)>2/3*(high-low) and (low[1]<ema21[1] or low<ema21) and open[1]>ema21[1] and high-close<(close-low)*0.3 and (open[2]>ema21[2] or close[2]>ema21[2]) and close>ema21 and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2]
onewhitesoliderbear1= close<open and high[1]-close>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (open-close)>2/3*(high-low) and (high[1]>pacC[1] or high>pacC) and open[1]<pacC[1] and close-low<(high-close)*0.3 and (open[2]<pacC[2] or close[2]<pacC[2]) and close<pacC and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2]
onewwhitesoliderbull1= close>open and close-low[1]>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (close-open)>2/3*(high-low) and (low[1]<pacC[1] or low<pacC) and open[1]>pacC[1] and high-close<(close-low)*0.3 and (open[2]>pacC[2] or close[2]>pacC[2]) and close>pacC and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2]
onewhitesoliderbear2= close<open and high[1]-close>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (open-close)>2/3*(high-low) and (high[1]>signalMA[1] or high>signalMA) and open[1]<signalMA[1] and close-low<(high-close)*0.3 and (open[2]<signalMA[2] or close[2]<signalMA[2]) and close<signalMA and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2]
onewwhitesoliderbull2= close>open and close-low[1]>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (close-open)>2/3*(high-low) and (low[1]<signalMA[1] or low<signalMA) and open[1]>signalMA[1] and high-close<(close-low)*0.3 and (open[2]>signalMA[2] or close[2]>signalMA[2]) and close>signalMA and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2]
//plotshape(beariskpinbar and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) and not onewhitesoliderbear and not onewwhitesoliderbull, title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(bullishpibar and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)) and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not onewhitesoliderbear, title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//
//pinbar=(open>ema21 and low<ema21 and close-low>2*(high-close)) or (open[1]>ema21[1] and low[1]<ema21[1] and (close-low[1]>2*(high[1]-close) or close-low>2*(high[1]-close)))? green:na
//pinbar2=(open<ema21 and high>ema21 and high-close>2*(close-low)) or (open[1]<ema21[1] and high[1]>ema21[1] and (high[1]-close>2*(close-low[1]) or high-close>2*(close-low[1])))?orange:na
//plot(ema21)
//bgcolor(insidebar, transp=70)
//bgcolor(fakey, transp=80)
//bgcolor(fakey1, transp=80)
//bgcolor(pinbar, transp=70)
//bgcolor(pinbar2, transp=70)
insidebar = ((high[1] <= high[2] and low[1] >= low[2]) and not(outsidebar))
barcolor(outsidebar and high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]?white:na)
bearishibbf=( insidebar and (high > high[1] and close < high[1]))
//barcolor( bearishibbf ? white : na, 0, true, "Bearish Inside Bar Breakout Failure")
//plotshape(bearishibbf and not fakey, title= "Bearish Inside Bar Breakout Failure", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="InsideBar\nFailBreak",size=size.tiny)
bullishibbf=(insidebar and (low < low[1] and close > low[1]))
//barcolor( bullishibbf ? white : na, 0, true, "Bullish Inside Bar Breakout Failure")
//plotshape(bullishibbf and not fakey1, title= "Bullish Inside Bar Breakout Failure", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="InsideBar\nFailBreak",size=size.tiny)
//
barcolor((onewwhitesoliderbull or onewhitesoliderbear) and not insidebar?white:na)
//
// Outsidebar follow Insidebar
///plotshape(outsidebar and ((high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2] ) ) and close<ema21 and not beariskpinbar and not bullishpibar, title= "OutsideBar Break InsideBar", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Outside\nBar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(outsidebar and ((high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]) ) and close>ema21 and not beariskpinbar and not bullishpibar, title= "OutsideBar Break InsideBar", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Outside\nBar",size=size.tiny)
//
whitesoldierreversal= ((low[1]<low[2] and low[2]<low[3]) or (high[1]<high[2] and high[2]<high[3])) and low[3]<low[8] and low[8]<ema21[8] and high[2]<ema21[2] and high[1]<ema21[1] and high[3]<ema21[3] and close-low[1]>(high[1]-close) and (open<close[1] or open<open[1]) and close-open>0.3*(high-low) and high-close<0.5*(close-open)
blackcrowreversal= ((high[1]>high[2] and high[2]>high[3]) or (low[1]>low[2] and low[2]>low[3])) and high[3]>high[8] and high[8]>ema21[8] and low[2]>ema21[2] and low[1]>ema21[1] and low[3]>ema21[3] and close-low[1]<(high[1]-close) and (open>close[1] or open>open[1]) and open-close>0.3*(high-low) and close-low<0.5*(open-close)
// Black Crow and White Soldier Reversal
//plotshape(whitesoldierreversal, title= "Piercing Pattern", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Piercing",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(blackcrowreversal, title= "Dark Cloud Cover", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Dark\nCloud",size=size.tiny)
barcolor(blackcrowreversal or whitesoldierreversal?white:na)
//
pinbarreversalbull= ((low[1]<low[2] and low[2]<low[3]) or (high[1]<high[2] and high[2]<high[3])) and low[3]<low[8] and low[8]<ema21[8] and high[2]<ema21[2] and high[1]<ema21[1] and high[3]<ema21[3] and close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3 and high-close<close-low and low<low[1]
pinbarreversalbear= ((high[1]>high[2] and high[2]>high[3])or (low[1]>low[2] and low[2]>low[3])) and high[3]>high[8] and high[8]>ema21[8] and low[2]>ema21[2] and low[1]>ema21[1] and low[3]>ema21[3] and close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3 and high-close>close-low and high>high[1]
// Pinbar Reversal
//plotshape(pinbarreversalbull and not whitesoldierreversal and not fakey1 and not blackcrowreversal and not whitesoldierreversal and not bullishpibar, title= "Bullish Pinbar Reversal", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(pinbarreversalbear and not blackcrowreversal and not fakey and not whitesoldierreversal and not blackcrowreversal and not beariskpinbar, title= "Bearisk Pinbar Reversal", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
barcolor(pinbarreversalbear or pinbarreversalbull?white:na)
// Fakey
plotshape(fakey and (not outsidebar or not (high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]) ) and not blackcrowreversal , title= "Fakey Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Fakey",size=size.tiny)
plotshape(fakey1 and (not outsidebar or not (high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]) ) and not whitesoldierreversal , title= "Fakey Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Fakey",size=size.tiny)
// Pinbar Fake Breakout
//plotshape(beariskpinbar and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) and not onewhitesoliderbear and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not blackcrowreversal and not whitesoldierreversal and not fakey, title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="FalseBreak\nPinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(bullishpibar and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)) and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not onewhitesoliderbear and not whitesoldierreversal and not blackcrowreversal and not fakey1, title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="FalseBreak\nPinbar",size=size.tiny)
// Black Crow and White Soldier Continuation
//plotshape((onewhitesoliderbear or onewhitesoliderbear1 or onewhitesoliderbear2) and not insidebar and not fakey and not fakey1 and not outsidebar, title= "One solider Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Black\nCrow",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape((onewwhitesoliderbull or onewwhitesoliderbull1 or onewwhitesoliderbull2)and not insidebar and not fakey and not fakey1 and not outsidebar, title= "One solider Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="White\nSoldier",size=size.tiny)
// Pinbar Continuation
pinbarresistance= (close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and high-close>(close-low) and high-open>(open-low) and ((open[2]<ema21[2] or close[2]<ema21[2]) and high>ema21 and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2] and high>high[1] and high>high[2] and high>high[3])
pinbarsupport=(close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and close-low>(high-close) and open-low>(high-open) and ((open[2]>ema21[2] or close[2]>ema21[2]) and low<ema21 and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2] and low<low[1] and low<low[2] and low<low[3])
//plotshape(pinbarresistance and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) and not onewhitesoliderbear and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not blackcrowreversal and not whitesoldierreversal and not fakey and not beariskpinbar, title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(pinbarsupport and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)) and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not onewhitesoliderbear and not whitesoldierreversal and not blackcrowreversal and not fakey1 and not bullishpibar, title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
// barcolor
onlybuy=input(false)
onlysell=input(false)//
conmua= hisup==1 and MACD>0?1: (hisdown[1]==1 and MACD[1]<0 and pacC[1]>signalMA[1]) or (n1[2]<n1[3] and pacC[1]>signalMA[1])?-1:nz(conmua[1],1)
conmua1= conmua==1 and (hisdown==1 and MACD<0 and pacC>signalMA) or (n1[1]<n1[2] and pacC>signalMA)?1:(close[1]>n1[1] and pacC[1]>signalMA[1] and open[1]<n1[1] and close[1]>pacC[1]) or crossunder(pacC,signalMA) ?-1:nz(conmua1[1],1)
conmua2=conmua1==1 and hisup==1 and MACD>0 and close>n1?1: high[1]<high[3] and high[2]<high[3]?-1:nz(conmua2[1],1)
conmua3=conmua2==1 and high<high[2] and high[1]<high[2]?1: (close[1]>swinghigh[1] and hisup[1]==1 and MACD[1]>0) or ( MACD<0)?-1:nz(conmua3[1],1)
mua=conmua3==1 and hisup==1 and MACD>0 and conmua2==-1 and conmua1==-1
mua2= conmua1==1 and ( close>n1 and pacC>signalMA and open<n1 and close>pacC) and conmua[1]==-1
//if(mua2 and onlysell==false)
// strategy.entry("Buy",strategy.long)
conban=hisdown==1 and MACD<0?1:(hisup[1]==1 and MACD[1]>0 and pacC[1]<signalMA[1]) or (n1[2]>n1[3] and pacC[1]<signalMA[1])?-1:nz(conban[1],1)
conban1= conban==1 and (hisup==1 and MACD>0 and pacC<signalMA) or (n1[1]>n1[2] and pacC<signalMA)?1:( close[1]<n1[1] and pacC[1]<signalMA[1] and open[1]>n1[1] and close[1]<pacC[1]) or crossover(pacC,signalMA)?-1:nz(conban1[1],1)
conban2=conban1==1 and hisdown==1 and MACD<0 and close<n1?1: low[1]>low[3] and low[2]>low[3]?-1:nz(conban2[1],1)
conban3=conban2==1 and low[1]>low[2] and low>low[2]?1: (close[1]<swinglow[1] and hisdown[1]==1 and MACD[1]<0) or ( MACD>0)?-1:nz(conban3[1],1)
ban=conban3==1 and hisdown==1 and MACD<0 and conban2==-1
ban2=conban1==1 and ( close<n1 and pacC<signalMA and open>n1 and close<pacC) and conban[1]==-1
//if(ban2 and onlybuy==false)
// strategy.entry("Sell",strategy.short)
plotshape(conmua1==1 and conmua[1]==-1, style= shape.triangleup, color = lime, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
plotshape(conban1==1 and conban[1]==-1, style= shape.triangledown, color = red, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
plotshape(mua2, style= shape.labelup, color = lime, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
plotshape(ban2, style= shape.labeldown, color = red, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
// TP and SL/
SL = input(defval=50.00, title="Chốt lời (Pip)", type=float, step=1)
rr= input(defval=20.00,title="Cắt lỗ (Pip)",type=float, step=1)
useTPandSL = input(defval = true, title = "Sử dụng chốt lời và cắt lỗ?")
Stop = rr*10
Take=SL*10
Q = 100
if(useTPandSL)
strategy.exit("ExitBuy", "Buy", qty_percent=Q, profit= Take, loss=Stop)
strategy.exit("ExitSell", "Sell", qty_percent=Q, profit= Take, loss=Stop)