Triple Confirmation Trend Tracking Strategy

Author: ChaoZhang, Date: 2024-02-29 14:38:06
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Overview

The Triple Confirmation Trend Tracking strategy captures trend signals with high probability by combining signals from three major indicators - Moving Average, Heiken Ashi and Supertrend. When all three indicators give buy or sell signals simultaneously, the strategy will enter trades timely to track trends. When trend reverses, the strategy will quickly stop loss and even open reverse positions.

How The Strategy Works

Moving Average Judges Main Trend

The strategy uses a Moving Average of 52 periods to determine the main trend direction. When price crosses above MA, it indicates an upward trend. When price crosses below MA, it indicates a downward trend.

Heiken Ashi Identifies Secondary Reversals

The strategy also uses Heiken Ashi to identify secondary short-term reversals. Heiken Ashi is calculated similarly to Moving Average but with open prices instead of close prices, thus able to reflect reversal signals faster. When price crosses above a falling Heiken Ashi line, it signals stabilizing rebound. When price crosses below a rising Heiken Ashi line, it signals short-term pullback.

Supertrend Determines Key Reversal Points

Additionally, the strategy incorporates Supertrend indicator to spot key reversal points. Supertrend combines ATR and price data to dynamically adjust upper/lower channel bands and hence effectively judge reversals.

Triple Confirmation Filter

Only when signs of all three indicators line up, the strategy will go long. When all three give sell signals, the strategy will open short positions. The triple confirmation mechanism filters out false signals substantially and ensures high-probability setups.

Strengths Analysis

High Probability with Multi-dimensional Assessment

The combinted signals of Moving Average, Heiken Ashi and Supertren from different dimensions ensure high-probability entry.

Promptly Reacts and Tracks in Real Time

The introduction of Heiken Ashi ensures fast response to short-term reversals. The adaptive Supertrend channel also tracks price changes timely.

Auto Profit Taking & Loss Cutting

The inbuilt auto profit-taking and stop-loss mechanism dynamically adjusts profit/loss levels based on ATR, effectively capping losses per trade.

Risks & Solutions

Excessive Trading Frequency

The abundance of trading signals may incur over-trading. Moderately increasing the MA period helps to limit trade frequency.

Uncertainty of Reversal Judgement

Heiken Ashi and Supertrend may falsely identiy key reversals. Additional filter conditions on indicator parameters can enhance reversal reliability.

Loss Risk in Range-bound Market

In raging markets, repetitive crossover signals may trigger frequent opening and stop loss of positions, causing losses. Recognizing and sidelining ranging mode will avoid such losses.

Enhancement Directions

Incorporate Volatility Indicators

Volatility indicators like Bollinger Bands could help avoid opening new trades when price stretches near the bands. This effectively prevents whipsaw loss risks.

Additional Entry Filters

Extra auxiliary indicators like KDJ and MACD can provide additional layers of confirmation signals, allowing only qualified setups to pass through. This further screens out false signals.

Optimize Profit Taking Mechanism

The profit-taking mechanism can be upgraded in various ways, like trail stop, exponential trail stop, partial exit at interval etc., to harvest profit as much as possible in a steady manner.

Conclusion

The Triple Confirmation Trend Tracking Strategy fully leverages the strengths of Moving Average, Heiken Ashi and Supertrend to determine trend signals with high accuracy. The embedded automated profit-taking and stop-loss mechanism also effectively limits per trade loss. Potential areas for further enhancements include incorporating other filters before entry, as well as innovating the profit-taking techniques, in order to make the strategy more practical.


/*backtest
start: 2024-01-01 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-31 23:59:59
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5



//custom variables
hei_col = 0  //1 for green 0 for red
qqe_col = 0  //1 for blue 0 for red
supa_col = 0  //1 for buy 0 for sell
float upratr=0
float lwratr=0
//end


strategy(title='Death_star', overlay=true,calc_on_every_tick = true)

ma_type = input.string(title='MA Type', defval='EMA', options=['EMA', 'SMA', 'SWMA', 'VWMA', 'WMA'])
ma_period = input.int(title='MA Period (Length)', defval=52, minval=1)
ma_period_smoothing = input.int(title='MA Period smoothing (Length)', defval=10, minval=1)

color_positive = input(title='Positive color (Bullish)', defval=color.new(#26A69A, 50))
color_negative = input(title='Negative color (Bearish)', defval=color.new(#EF5350, 50))
color_hl = input(title='High & Low cloud color', defval=color.new(#808080, 80))

show_line = input(title='Show (lines)', defval=false)
show_hl_cloud = input(title='Show (High & Low cloud)', defval=true)
show_oc_cloud = input(title='Show (Open & Close cloud)', defval=true)

//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// I.2. Settings, Function definition — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 
//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

f_ma_type(input_ma_type, input_source, input_ma_period) =>
    result = float(na)

    if input_ma_type == 'EMA'
        result := ta.ema(input_source, input_ma_period)
        result
    if input_ma_type == 'SMA'
        result := ta.sma(input_source, input_ma_period)
        result
    if input_ma_type == 'SWMA'
        result := ta.swma(input_source)
        result
    if input_ma_type == 'VWMA'
        result := ta.vwma(input_source, input_ma_period)
        result
    if input_ma_type == 'WMA'
        result := ta.wma(input_source, input_ma_period)
        result

    result

//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// II.1. Calculations, MA — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 
//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

o = f_ma_type(ma_type, open, ma_period)
c = f_ma_type(ma_type, close, ma_period)
h = f_ma_type(ma_type, high, ma_period)
l = f_ma_type(ma_type, low, ma_period)

//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// II.2. Calculations, Heikin Ashi — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 
//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

ha = ticker.heikinashi(syminfo.tickerid)

ha_o = request.security(ha, timeframe.period, o)
ha_c = request.security(ha, timeframe.period, c)
ha_h = request.security(ha, timeframe.period, h)
ha_l = request.security(ha, timeframe.period, l)

//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// II.3. Calculations, MA (Smoothing) — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 
//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

ha_o_smooth = f_ma_type(ma_type, ha_o, ma_period_smoothing)
ha_c_smooth = f_ma_type(ma_type, ha_c, ma_period_smoothing)
ha_h_smooth = f_ma_type(ma_type, ha_h, ma_period_smoothing)
ha_l_smooth = f_ma_type(ma_type, ha_l, ma_period_smoothing)

//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// III.1. Display, Colors — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 
//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

tren = ha_c_smooth >= ha_o_smooth

color_trend = tren ? color_positive : color_negative

hei_col := tren ? 1 : 0

color_show_line_positive = show_line ? color_positive : na
color_show_line_negative = show_line ? color_negative : na

color_show_hl_cloud = show_hl_cloud ? color_hl : na
color_show_oc_cloud = show_oc_cloud ? color_trend : na

//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// III.2. Display, Plotting & Filling — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 
//————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

o_line = plot(ha_o_smooth, color=color_show_line_positive, title='Open line')
c_line = plot(ha_c_smooth, color=color_show_line_negative, title='Close line')

h_line = plot(ha_h_smooth, color=color_show_line_positive, title='High line')
l_line = plot(ha_l_smooth, color=color_show_line_negative, title='Low line')

fill(o_line, c_line, color=color_show_oc_cloud, title='Open & Close Trendcloud', transp=90)
fill(h_line, l_line, color=color_show_hl_cloud, title='High & Low Trendcloud', transp=90)

upratr:=(ha_h_smooth)
lwratr:=(ha_l_smooth)
// supa


Periods = input(title='ATR Period', defval=9)
src = input(hl2, title='Source')
Multiplier = input.float(title='ATR Multiplier', step=0.1, defval=3.9)
changeATR = input(title='Change ATR Calculation Method ?', defval=true)
showsignals = input(title='Show Buy/Sell Signals ?', defval=true)
highlighting = input(title='Highlighter On/Off ?', defval=true)
atr2 = ta.sma(ta.tr, Periods)
atr = changeATR ? ta.atr(Periods) : atr2
up = src - Multiplier * atr
up1 = nz(up[1], up)
up := close[1] > up1 ? math.max(up, up1) : up
dn = src + Multiplier * atr
dn1 = nz(dn[1], dn)
dn := close[1] < dn1 ? math.min(dn, dn1) : dn
trend = 1
trend := nz(trend[1], trend)
trend := trend == -1 and close > dn1 ? 1 : trend == 1 and close < up1 ? -1 : trend
upPlot = plot(trend == 1 ? up : na, title='Up Trend', style=plot.style_linebr, linewidth=2, color=color.new(color.green, 0))
buySignal = trend == 1 and trend[1] == -1
plotshape(buySignal ? up : na, title='UpTrend Begins', location=location.absolute, style=shape.circle, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(color.green, 0))
plotshape(buySignal and showsignals ? up : na, title='Buy', text='Buy', location=location.absolute, style=shape.labelup, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(color.green, 0), textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0))
dnPlot = plot(trend == 1 ? na : dn, title='Down Trend', style=plot.style_linebr, linewidth=2, color=color.new(color.red, 0))
sellSignal = trend == -1 and trend[1] == 1
plotshape(sellSignal ? dn : na, title='DownTrend Begins', location=location.absolute, style=shape.circle, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(color.red, 0))
plotshape(sellSignal and showsignals ? dn : na, title='Sell', text='Sell', location=location.absolute, style=shape.labeldown, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0))
mPlot = plot(ohlc4, title='', style=plot.style_circles, linewidth=0)
longFillColor = highlighting ? trend == 1 ? color.green : color.white : color.white
shortFillColor = highlighting ? trend == -1 ? color.red : color.white : color.white
supa_col := trend == 1 ? 1 : 0
fill(mPlot, upPlot, title='UpTrend Highligter', color=longFillColor, transp=90)
fill(mPlot, dnPlot, title='DownTrend Highligter', color=shortFillColor, transp=90)
alertcondition(buySignal, title='SuperTrend Buy', message='SuperTrend Buy!')
alertcondition(sellSignal, title='SuperTrend Sell', message='SuperTrend Sell!')
changeCond = trend != trend[1]
alertcondition(changeCond, title='SuperTrend Direction Change', message='SuperTrend has changed direction!')

//QQE


//By Glaz, Modified
//study("QQE MOD")
RSI_Period = input(6, title='RSI Length')
SF = input(5, title='RSI Smoothing')
QQE = input(3, title='Fast QQE Factor')
ThreshHold = input(3, title='Thresh-hold')
//

srctt = input(close, title='RSI Source')
//

//
Wilders_Period = RSI_Period * 2 - 1


Rsi = ta.rsi(srctt, RSI_Period)
RsiMa = ta.ema(Rsi, SF)
AtrRsi = math.abs(RsiMa[1] - RsiMa)
MaAtrRsi = ta.ema(AtrRsi, Wilders_Period)
dar = ta.ema(MaAtrRsi, Wilders_Period) * QQE

longband = 0.0
shortband = 0.0
trenda = 0

DeltaFastAtrRsi = dar
RSIndex = RsiMa
newshortband = RSIndex + DeltaFastAtrRsi
newlongband = RSIndex - DeltaFastAtrRsi
longband := RSIndex[1] > longband[1] and RSIndex > longband[1] ? math.max(longband[1], newlongband) : newlongband
shortband := RSIndex[1] < shortband[1] and RSIndex < shortband[1] ? math.min(shortband[1], newshortband) : newshortband
cross_1 = ta.cross(longband[1], RSIndex)
trenda := ta.cross(RSIndex, shortband[1]) ? 1 : cross_1 ? -1 : nz(trenda[1], 1)
FastAtrRsiTL = trenda == 1 ? longband : shortband
////////////////////


length = input.int(50, minval=1, title='Bollinger Length')
mult = input.float(0.35, minval=0.001, maxval=5, step=0.1, title='BB Multiplier')
basis = ta.sma(FastAtrRsiTL - 50, length)
dev = mult * ta.stdev(FastAtrRsiTL - 50, length)
upper = basis + dev
lower = basis - dev
color_bar = RsiMa - 50 > upper ? #00c3ff : RsiMa - 50 < lower ? #ff0062 : color.gray


//
// Zero cross
QQEzlong = 0
QQEzlong := nz(QQEzlong[1])
QQEzshort = 0
QQEzshort := nz(QQEzshort[1])
QQEzlong := RSIndex >= 50 ? QQEzlong + 1 : 0
QQEzshort := RSIndex < 50 ? QQEzshort + 1 : 0
//  

//Zero = hline(0, color=color.rgb(116, 26, 26), linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

RSI_Period2 = input(6, title='RSI Length')
SF2 = input(5, title='RSI Smoothing')
QQE2 = input(1.61, title='Fast QQE2 Factor')
ThreshHold2 = input(3, title='Thresh-hold')

src2 = input(close, title='RSI Source')
//

//
Wilders_Period2 = RSI_Period2 * 2 - 1


Rsi2 = ta.rsi(src2, RSI_Period2)
RsiMa2 = ta.ema(Rsi2, SF2)
AtrRsi2 = math.abs(RsiMa2[1] - RsiMa2)
MaAtrRsi2 = ta.ema(AtrRsi2, Wilders_Period2)
dar2 = ta.ema(MaAtrRsi2, Wilders_Period2) * QQE2
longband2 = 0.0
shortband2 = 0.0
trend2 = 0

DeltaFastAtrRsi2 = dar2
RSIndex2 = RsiMa2
newshortband2 = RSIndex2 + DeltaFastAtrRsi2
newlongband2 = RSIndex2 - DeltaFastAtrRsi2
longband2 := RSIndex2[1] > longband2[1] and RSIndex2 > longband2[1] ? math.max(longband2[1], newlongband2) : newlongband2
shortband2 := RSIndex2[1] < shortband2[1] and RSIndex2 < shortband2[1] ? math.min(shortband2[1], newshortband2) : newshortband2
cross_2 = ta.cross(longband2[1], RSIndex2)
trend2 := ta.cross(RSIndex2, shortband2[1]) ? 1 : cross_2 ? -1 : nz(trend2[1], 1)
FastAtrRsi2TL = trend2 == 1 ? longband2 : shortband2


//
// Zero cross
QQE2zlong = 0
QQE2zlong := nz(QQE2zlong[1])
QQE2zshort = 0
QQE2zshort := nz(QQE2zshort[1])
QQE2zlong := RSIndex2 >= 50 ? QQE2zlong + 1 : 0
QQE2zshort := RSIndex2 < 50 ? QQE2zshort + 1 : 0
//  

hcolor2 = RsiMa2 - 50 > ThreshHold2 ? color.silver : RsiMa2 - 50 < 0 - ThreshHold2 ? color.silver : na
// plot(FastAtrRsi2TL - 50, title='QQE Line', color=color.new(color.white, 0), linewidth=2)
// plot(RsiMa2 - 50, color=hcolor2, title='Histo2', style=plot.style_columns, transp=50)

Greenbar1 = RsiMa2 - 50 > ThreshHold2
Greenbar2 = RsiMa - 50 > upper

Redbar1 = RsiMa2 - 50 < 0 - ThreshHold2
Redbar2 = RsiMa - 50 < lower
// plot(Greenbar1 and Greenbar2 == 1 ? RsiMa2 - 50 : na, title='QQE Up', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.new(#00c3ff, 0))
// plot(Redbar1 and Redbar2 == 1 ? RsiMa2 - 50 : na, title='QQE Down', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.new(#ff0062, 0))

qqe_col:=Greenbar1 and Greenbar2 == 1 ?1:(Redbar1 and Redbar2 == 1 ?0:-1)



//lab=label.new(bar_index,50,str.tostring(qqe_col))







// ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

// //custom code

// ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////



// sma=((lhitt+shitt)/cnt)
// plot(sma*1000)
// plot(250,color=color.red)




//begin




sess=input("0916-1200","time for reversals!!")
v=time(timeframe.period,sess)
rr=input.float(1,"enter the reward..def is 3")
on=na(v)?false:true
bool daybreak=input.bool(false,"daybreak ? true means day end close")
bool apply_on=input.bool(true,"do u want time for reversal?")
apply_on:=not apply_on
test=input.int(2,"train(0) test(1) all(2)?")
// if str.tonumber(timeframe.period)!=5
//     runtime.error("backtests and stocks only valid for 5 min tf!!")
on:=apply_on or on


pts=1/syminfo.mintick
var float sl=0
var float profit=0
// var dud=0
// var counter=0
var con_win=0
var con_lose=0
var tempwin=0
var templose=0
//adding analytics variables
var float[] stararr=array.new_float(10,-1) 
var float[] sslarr=array.new_float(10,-1)
var float skipper=-1
var float[] ltararr=array.new_float(10,-1)
var float[] lslarr=array.new_float(10,-1)

var float lhit=0
var float shit=0
var float miss=0
var float cnt=0
var lflag=0
var sflag=0
var i=0
var dud=0
var gap=0
float begin=0
float end=0
// ei_col = 0  //1 for green 0 for red
// qqe_col = 0  //1 for blue 0 for red
// supa_col = 0
//plot(i)
//code begins here
if test==0
    begin:=0
    end:=5500/2
else if test==1
    begin:=5500/2
    end:=bar_index
else if test==2
    begin:=0
    end:=bar_index


if  hei_col==1 and qqe_col==1 and supa_col==1 and lflag==0 and low>upratr and bar_index>=begin and bar_index<=end and on
    lflag:=1
    sflag:=0
    if array.get(lslarr,i)!=-1
        dud:=dud+1
    array.set(lslarr,i,upratr)
    array.set(ltararr,i,(close+rr*(close-upratr)))
    cnt:=cnt+1
    skipper:=i
   // lab=label.new(bar_index,close+100,str.tostring(array.get(lslarr,i)) +"\n"+  str.tostring(array.get(ltararr,i)) +"\n"+str.tostring(i))
    i:=(i+1)%9
    strategy.order("long_"+str.tostring(i-1),strategy.long,1)   
    strategy.order("sl_l"+str.tostring(i-1),strategy.short,stop=upratr,oca_name = "exit"+str.tostring(i-1))
    strategy.order("target_l"+str.tostring(i-1),strategy.short,limit=((close+rr*(close-upratr))),oca_name = "exit"+str.tostring(i-1))  

if  hei_col==0 and qqe_col==0 and supa_col==0 and sflag==0 and high<lwratr and bar_index>=begin and bar_index<=end and on
    sflag:=1
    lflag:=0
    if array.get(sslarr,i)!=-1
        dud:=dud+1
    array.set(sslarr,i,lwratr)
    array.set(stararr,i,(close-rr*(lwratr-close)))
    skipper:=i
  //  lab=label.new(bar_index,close+100,str.tostring(array.get(sslarr,i)) +"\n"+  str.tostring(array.get(stararr,i)) +"\n"+str.tostring(i))
    i:=(i+1)%9
    cnt:=cnt+1
    strategy.order("short_"+str.tostring(i-1),strategy.short,1)  
    strategy.order("sl_s"+str.tostring(i-1),strategy.long,stop=lwratr,oca_name = "exit"+str.tostring(i-1))
    strategy.order("target_s"+str.tostring(i-1),strategy.long,limit=((close-rr*(lwratr-close))),oca_name = "exit"+str.tostring(i-1))  


for j=0 to 9
    if array.get(lslarr,j)!=-1 and j!=skipper
        if low < array.get(lslarr,j)  and array.get(lslarr,j)!=-1// and open>array.get(lslarr,j)
            miss:=miss+1
            array.set(ltararr,j,-1)
            array.set(lslarr,j,-1)
        
        else if high > array.get(ltararr,j)  and array.get(lslarr,j)!=-1 //and open<array.get(ltararr,j)
            lhit:=lhit+1
            array.set(ltararr,j,-1)
            array.set(lslarr,j,-1)

    if array.get(sslarr,j)!=-1 and j!=skipper


        if high > array.get(sslarr,j) and array.get(sslarr,j)!=-1 //and open<array.get(sslarr,j) 
            miss:=miss+1
            array.set(stararr,j,-1)
            array.set(sslarr,j,-1)
        else if low < array.get(stararr,j) and array.get(sslarr,j)!=-1 //and open>array.get(stararr,j)
            shit:=shit+1
            array.set(stararr,j,-1)
            array.set(sslarr,j,-1)
skipper:=-1
var day_miss=0
string ender=""
if (timeframe.period)=="1"
    ender:="1528-1529"
else if (timeframe.period)=="5"
    ender:="1520-1525"
else if (timeframe.period)=="15"
    ender:="1500-1515"
else if (timeframe.period)=="60"
    ender:="1330-1430"
else
    //runtime.error("not accounted tf!!")
    daybreak:=false
if time(timeframe.period,ender) and daybreak
    if strategy.position_size!=0
        day_miss+=1
        strategy.cancel_all()
        strategy.close_all("day_end_close")
        for k=0 to (array.size(stararr)==0?na:(array.size(stararr)-1))
            array.set(stararr,k,-1)
            array.set(sslarr,k,-1)
        
            array.set(ltararr,k,-1)
            array.set(lslarr,k,-1)
    i:=0


if (lhit+shit)>(lhit[1]+shit[1])
    tempwin:=tempwin+1
    templose:=0

else if (miss)>(miss[1])
    templose:=templose+1
    tempwin:=0

if tempwin>con_win
    con_win:=tempwin
if templose>con_lose
    con_lose:=templose



// //*********************adding randomness indicator************

var float nhit=0,var float nphit=0
if cnt%10==0 and cnt>0 
    nhit:=(lhit+shit)-nphit
    nphit:=(lhit+shit)

t=table.new(position.top_right,1,6,bgcolor = color.rgb(236, 172, 172))
table.cell(t,0,0,str.tostring(((lhit+shit)/cnt)*100))
table.cell(t,0,1,str.tostring(((lhit+shit)/(lhit+shit+miss))*100))
table.cell(t,0,2,"daymiss "+str.tostring(day_miss))
//table.cell(t,0,1,str.tostring(((lhit)/cnt)*100))
//table.cell(t,0,2,str.tostring(((shit)/cnt)*100))
table.cell(t,0,3,str.tostring(con_win))
// table.cell(t,0,4,str.tostring(gap))
table.cell(t,0,4,str.tostring(con_lose))
table.cell(t,0,5,str.tostring(cnt))
//plot(1000*cnt,color =color.rgb(105, 28, 28))
// // plot(40000+lhit+shit,color=strategy.closedtrades%10==0?color.green:color.white,style=plot.style_circles)
//plot(1000*(lhit+shit),color=color.green)
//plot(1000*miss,color=color.red)

// // hitrate=strategy.wintrades/strategy.closedtrades
// // plot(hitrate*100)
// // plot(strategy.wintrades)
//plot(nhit*10000)
//dud is overwritten trades whereas day_miss are the trades closed at days end

// sma=(lhit+shit)/(lhit+shit+miss)
// plot(sma*100000)
// plot(50000,color=color.red)

// plot(con_win*1000,color=color.green)
// plot(con_lose*1000,color=color.red)


var float[] dat=array.new_float(10,-1)
var dati=0
var float datp=0
if miss>miss[1]
    for cd=0 to ((miss-miss[1])-1)
        array.set(dat,dati,0)
        dati:=(dati+1)%10
if (lhit+shit)>(lhit[1]+shit[1])
    for cd=0 to (  ((lhit+shit)-(lhit[1]+shit[1]))  -1)
        array.set(dat,dati,1)
        dati:=(dati+1)%10

if array.get(dat,9)!=-1
    for cd=0 to 9
        datp:=datp+array.get(dat,cd)

plot((datp/10)*10000) 
plot(5000,color = color.red)       
datp:=0





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