Strategi tren penyesuaian arah rata-rata bergerak


Tanggal Pembuatan: 2023-09-14 17:47:01 Akhirnya memodifikasi: 2023-09-14 17:47:01
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Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini menentukan arah tren garis panjang dari pasar dengan melakukan operasi over atau under.

Logika transaksi utama:

  1. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dari beberapa kelompok periode yang berbeda, seperti 5 hari, 20 hari, 50 hari, dan sebagainya

  2. Bandingkan arah dari setiap garis rata untuk melihat apakah ada arah penyesuaian yang konsisten

  3. Ketika semua garis rata-rata disesuaikan ke atas, dinilai sebagai garis panjang bullish, ketika semua garis rata-rata disesuaikan ke bawah, dinilai sebagai garis panjang bearish

  4. Pada saat sinyal bullish, harga menembus garis stop loss ke bawah dan melakukan posisi over.

  5. Pada saat sinyal turun, harga menembus garis stop loss ke atas dan membuat posisi shorting

  6. Tetapkan Stop Loss untuk Mengontrol Risiko

Strategi ini menekankan pada penilaian tren tren jangka panjang dan perdagangan setelah tren dikonfirmasi untuk mengendalikan risiko non-sistemik.

Keunggulan Strategis

  • Portfolio Multi-Average menilai tren jangka panjang

  • Penembusan Stop Loss Line dan Penambahan Posisi

  • Penghapusan strategi pengendalian risiko

Risiko Strategis

  • Indeks rata-rata sendiri tertinggal dari harga

  • Salah menilai tren dapat menyebabkan kerugian berkelanjutan

  • Hanya melakukan lebih banyak atau kurang tidak bisa memanfaatkan kesempatan

Meringkaskan

Strategi ini menekankan pada penilaian jangka panjang melalui tren rata-rata untuk mengurangi risiko non-sistemik. Namun, keakuratan penilaian dan pengoptimalan strategi stop loss adalah kunci.

Kode Sumber Strategi
/*backtest
start: 2022-09-07 00:00:00
end: 2023-06-24 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © HeWhoMustNotBeNamed

//@version=4
strategy("TrendMaAlignmentStrategy", overlay=true, initial_capital = 2000, default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type = strategy.commission.cash_per_order, pyramiding = 1, commission_value = 2)

MAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="sma", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
LookbackPeriod = input(5, step=10)
shortHighLowPeriod = input(10, step=10)
longHighLowPeriod = input(20, step=10)

atrlength=input(22)
stopMultiplyer = input(6, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)
reentryStopMultiplyer = input(3, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)
exitOnSignal = input(false)
tradeDirection = input(title="Trade Direction", defval=strategy.direction.long, options=[strategy.direction.all, strategy.direction.long, strategy.direction.short])

backtestYears = input(10, minval=1, step=1)
inDateRange = true

allowReduceCompound=true
includePartiallyAligned = true
considerYearlyHighLow = true
considerNewLongTermHighLows = true

//////////////////////////////////// Get Moving average ///////////////////////////////////
f_getMovingAverage(source, MAType, length)=>
    ma = sma(source, length)
    if(MAType == "ema")
        ma := ema(source,length)
    if(MAType == "hma")
        ma := hma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "rma")
        ma := rma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "vwma")
        ma := vwma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "wma")
        ma := wma(source,length)
    ma
    
f_getMaAlignment(MAType, includePartiallyAligned)=>
    ma5 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,5)
    ma10 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,10)
    ma20 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,20)
    ma30 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,30)
    ma50 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,50)
    ma100 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,100)
    ma200 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,200)

    upwardScore = 0
    upwardScore := close > ma5? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma5 > ma10? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma10 > ma20? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma20 > ma30? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma30 > ma50? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma50 > ma100? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma100 > ma200? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    
    upwards = close > ma5 and ma5 > ma10 and ma10 > ma20 and ma20 > ma30 and ma30 > ma50 and ma50 > ma100 and ma100 > ma200
    downwards = close < ma5 and ma5 < ma10 and ma10 < ma20 and ma20 < ma30 and ma30 < ma50 and ma50 < ma100 and ma100 < ma200
    upwards?1:downwards?-1:includePartiallyAligned ? (upwardScore > 5? 0.5: upwardScore < 2?-0.5:upwardScore>3?0.25:-0.25) : 0

f_getMaAlignmentHighLow(MAType, includePartiallyAligned, LookbackPeriod)=>
    maAlignment = f_getMaAlignment(MAType,includePartiallyAligned)
    [highest(maAlignment, LookbackPeriod), lowest(maAlignment, LookbackPeriod)]

//////////////////////////////////// Calculate new high low condition //////////////////////////////////////////////////
f_calculateNewHighLows(shortHighLowPeriod, longHighLowPeriod, considerNewLongTermHighLows)=>
    newHigh = highest(shortHighLowPeriod) == highest(longHighLowPeriod) or not considerNewLongTermHighLows
    newLow = lowest(shortHighLowPeriod) == lowest(longHighLowPeriod) or not considerNewLongTermHighLows
    [newHigh,newLow]

//////////////////////////////////// Calculate stop and compound //////////////////////////////////////////////////
f_calculateStopAndCompound(target, atr, stopMultiplyer, allowReduceCompound, barState)=>
    buyStop = target - (stopMultiplyer * atr)
    sellStop = target + (stopMultiplyer * atr)
    buyStop := (barState > 0 or strategy.position_size > 0 ) and (buyStop < buyStop[1] or close < sellStop[1])? buyStop[1] : strategy.position_size < 0 and close > buyStop[1]? buyStop[1] : barState < 0 and allowReduceCompound and buyStop > buyStop[1] ? buyStop[1] : buyStop
    sellStop := (barState < 0 or strategy.position_size < 0) and (sellStop > sellStop[1] or close > buyStop[1])? sellStop[1] : strategy.position_size > 0 and close < sellStop[1]? sellStop[1]: barState > 0 and allowReduceCompound and sellStop < sellStop[1] ? sellStop[1] : sellStop
    [buyStop, sellStop]

//////////////////////////////////// Calculate Yearly High Low //////////////////////////////////////////////////
f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)=>
    yhigh = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', high[1]) 
    ylow = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', low[1]) 
    yhighlast = yhigh[365]
    ylowlast = ylow[365]
    yhighllast = yhigh[2 * 365]
    ylowllast = ylow[2 * 365]
    
    yearlyTrendUp = na(yhigh)? true : na(yhighlast)? close > yhigh : na(yhighllast)? close > max(yhigh,yhighlast) : close > max(yhigh, min(yhighlast, yhighllast))
    yearlyHighCondition = (  (na(yhigh) or na(yhighlast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighlast) ) and ( na(yhigh) or na(yhighllast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighllast))) or yearlyTrendUp or not considerYearlyHighLow
    yearlyTrendDown = na(ylow)? true : na(ylowlast)? close < ylow : na(ylowllast)? close < min(ylow,ylowlast) : close < min(ylow, max(ylowlast, ylowllast))
    yearlyLowCondition = (  (na(ylow) or na(ylowlast) ? true : (ylow < ylowlast) ) and ( na(ylow) or na(ylowllast) ? true : (ylow < ylowllast))) or yearlyTrendDown or not considerYearlyHighLow
    
    [yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition]
    
atr = atr(atrlength)    
[maAlignmentHigh, maAlignmentLow] = f_getMaAlignmentHighLow(MAType, includePartiallyAligned, LookbackPeriod)
[newHigh,newLow] = f_calculateNewHighLows(shortHighLowPeriod, longHighLowPeriod, considerNewLongTermHighLows)
[middle, upper, lower] = bb(close, 20, 2)
barState = (maAlignmentLow > 0 or maAlignmentHigh == 1) and newHigh ? 1 : (maAlignmentHigh < 0 or maAlignmentLow == -1) and newLow ? -1 : 0
[buyStop, sellStop] = f_calculateStopAndCompound(close, atr, stopMultiplyer, allowReduceCompound, barState)
[yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition] = f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)

barcolor(barState == 1?color.lime : barState == -1? color.orange: color.silver)
//plot(maAlignmentHigh, title="AlighmentHigh", color=color.green, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_line)
//plot(maAlignmentLow, title="AlignmentLow", color=color.red, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_line)

plot(barState == 1 or strategy.position_size != 0 ?buyStop:na, title="BuyStop", color=color.green, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_linebr)
plot(barState == -1 or strategy.position_size != 0 ?sellStop:na, title="SellStop", color=color.red, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_linebr)

buyEntry = barState == 1 and close - reentryStopMultiplyer*atr > buyStop and yearlyHighCondition and inDateRange
sellEntry = barState == -1 and close + reentryStopMultiplyer*atr < sellStop and yearlyLowCondition and inDateRange
buyExit = barState == -1
sellExit = barState == 1

strategy.risk.allow_entry_in(tradeDirection)
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long, when=buyEntry)
strategy.close("Buy", when=buyExit and exitOnSignal)
strategy.exit("ExitBuy", "Buy", stop = buyStop)

strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short, when=sellEntry)
strategy.close("Sell", when=sellExit and exitOnSignal)
strategy.exit("ExitSell", "Sell", stop = sellStop)