Strategi Regresi Garis K Rata-rata Bergerak


Tanggal Pembuatan: 2023-09-14 17:50:14 Akhirnya memodifikasi: 2023-09-14 17:50:14
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Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini mengintegrasikan berbagai indikator dan strategi teknis yang digunakan untuk menentukan kapan masuk dan keluar dari indeks.

Logika transaksi utama:

  1. Hitung garis K rata-rata bergerak, termasuk rata-rata bergerak dari harga buka, tutup, tertinggi, dan terendah

  2. Menghitung momentum dari garis K rata-rata bergerak, dan regresi linier dari momentum

  3. Menghitung Regresi Linear dari Moving Average K Linear itu sendiri

  4. Perhitungan tren super untuk menentukan arah tren keseluruhan

  5. Ketika momentum kembali dari negatif ke arah yang benar, atau kembali kuat, dinilai sebagai titik waktu masuk

  6. Ketika momentum bergeser dari positif ke negatif, atau mundur ke lemah, dinilai sebagai titik keluar

Strategi ini menggunakan berbagai indikator teknis untuk menilai pergerakan dan ritme pasar jangka pendek dan panjang untuk menentukan waktu perdagangan indeks.

Keunggulan Strategis

  • Garis K rata-rata bergerak mencerminkan tren jangka menengah dan panjang pasar

  • Analisis Regression Judging Trend

  • Supertrend membantu menentukan arah keseluruhan

  • Kombinasi multi-indikator meningkatkan akurasi penilaian

Risiko Strategis

  • Optimasi parameter lebih rumit

  • Portfolio multi-indikator sulit untuk diseimbangkan

  • Sinyal langka, frekuensi transaksi rendah

Meringkaskan

Strategi ini bertujuan untuk mengeksplorasi jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dari pasar untuk menentukan waktu terbaik untuk perdagangan indeks. Namun, penyesuaian parameter dan optimalisasi model masih harus disempurnakan.

Kode Sumber Strategi
/*backtest
start: 2023-09-06 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-13 00:00:00
period: 15m
basePeriod: 5m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © HeWhoMustNotBeNamed

//@version=4
strategy("MACandles-LinearRegression-Strategy", shorttitle="MALinReg - Strategy",
                     overlay=false, initial_capital = 100000, 
                     default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, pyramiding = 1, 
                     commission_value = 0.01)
resolution = ""
MAType = input(title="Moving Average Type (MA Candles)", defval="hma", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
LoopbackBars = input(60, title="Length (MA Candles)", step=10)

MMAType = input(title="Moving Average Type (Momentum)", defval="ema", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
MLength = input(20, title="MA Length (Momentum)", step=10)

lb = input(40  , title="Look Back Period Percentile High/Low", step=10, minval=10, maxval=100)
ph = input(.85, title="Highest Percentile - 0.90=90%, 0.95=95%, 0.99=99%")
pl = input(1.01, title="Lowest Percentile - 1.10=90%, 1.05=95%, 1.01=99%")
mult = input(3.0    , minval=1, maxval=5, title="Bollinger Band Standard Devaition Up")

aggressiveLong = input(true)
longTrades = input(true)
useVixFix = input(false)
i_startTime = input(defval = timestamp("01 Jan 2010 00:00 +0000"), title = "Start Time", type = input.time)
i_endTime = input(defval = timestamp("01 Jan 2099 00:00 +0000"), title = "End Time", type = input.time)
inDateRange = true


f_getMovingAverage(source, MAType, length)=>
    ma = sma(source, length)
    if(MAType == "ema")
        ma := ema(source,length)
    if(MAType == "hma")
        ma := hma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "rma")
        ma := rma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "vwma")
        ma := vwma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "wma")
        ma := wma(source,length)
    ma

f_getMACandles(resolution, MAType, LoopbackBars)=>
    oOpen = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oClose = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oHigh = f_getMovingAverage(high, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oLow = f_getMovingAverage(low, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    [oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow]

f_getVixFixLinReg(oClose, oLow, MLength)=>
    wvf = ((highest(oClose, MLength)-oLow)/(highest(oClose, MLength)))*100
    
    sDev = mult * stdev(wvf, MLength)
    midLine = sma(wvf, MLength)
    lowerBand = midLine - sDev
    upperBand = midLine + sDev
    
    rangeHigh = (highest(wvf, lb)) * ph
    rangeLow = (lowest(wvf, lb)) * pl
    
    
    col = wvf >= upperBand or wvf >= rangeHigh ? color.lime : color.gray
    
    val = linreg(wvf, MLength, 0)
    absVal = abs(val)
    linRegColor = val>val[1]? (val > 0 ? color.green : color.orange): (val > 0 ? color.lime : color.red)
    
    vixFixState = (col == color.lime) ? 1: 0
    vixFixState := strategy.position_size == 0? max(vixFixState, nz(vixFixState[1],0)) : vixFixState
    [val, absVal, wvf, col, linRegColor, vixFixState]
    
f_getMACandlesLinReg(oClose, MMAType, MLength, mult, lb, ph, pl)=>
    ma = f_getMovingAverage(oClose, MMAType, MLength)
    
    maDiff = oClose  -  ma
    val = linreg(maDiff, MLength,0)
    absVal = abs(val)
    linRegColor = iff( val > 0,
                 iff( val > nz(val[1]), color.green, color.lime),
                 iff( val < nz(val[1]), color.red, color.orange))
    
    
    sDev = mult * stdev(maDiff, MLength)
    midLine = sma(maDiff, MLength)
    lowerBand = midLine - sDev
    upperBand = midLine + sDev
    
    rangeHigh = (highest(maDiff, lb)) * ph
    rangeLow = (lowest(maDiff, lb)) * pl
    
    col = maDiff >= upperBand or maDiff >= rangeHigh ? color.lime : maDiff <= lowerBand or maDiff <= rangeLow ? color.orange : color.silver
    absMaDiff = abs(maDiff)
    [val, absVal, maDiff, absMaDiff, col, linRegColor]

f_getSupertrend(resolution, oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow, AtrMAType, AtrLength, AtrMult, wicks)=>
    truerange = max(oHigh, oClose[1]) - min(oLow, oClose[1])
    
    averagetruerange = f_getMovingAverage(truerange, AtrMAType, AtrLength)
    atr = averagetruerange * AtrMult

    longWicks = wicks
    shortWicks = wicks
    longStop = oClose - atr
    longStopPrev = nz(longStop[1], longStop)
    longStop := (longWicks ? oLow[1] : oClose[1]) > longStopPrev ? max(longStop, longStopPrev) : longStop
    
    shortStop = oClose + atr
    shortStopPrev = nz(shortStop[1], shortStop)
    shortStop := (shortWicks ? oHigh[1] : oClose[1]) < shortStopPrev ? min(shortStop, shortStopPrev) : shortStop
    
    dir = 1
    dir := nz(dir[1], dir)
    dir := dir == -1 and (longWicks ? oHigh : oClose) > shortStopPrev ? 1 : dir == 1 and (shortWicks[1]? oLow : oClose) < longStopPrev ? -1 : dir
    
    [dir, longStop, shortStop]

f_getMACandlesAndSupertrend(MAType, LoopbackBars, AtrMult, wicks)=>
    oOpen = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oClose = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oHigh = f_getMovingAverage(high, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oLow = f_getMovingAverage(low, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    [dir, longStop, shortStop] = f_getSupertrend(resolution, oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow, MAType, LoopbackBars, AtrMult, wicks)
    dir

[oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow] = f_getMACandles(resolution, MAType, LoopbackBars)
dir = f_getMACandlesAndSupertrend("sma", 200, 1, false)
colorByPreviousClose = false
candleColor = colorByPreviousClose ?
                 (oClose[1] < oClose ? color.green : oClose[1] > oClose ? color.red : color.silver) : 
                 (oOpen < oClose ? color.green : oOpen > oClose ? color.red : color.silver)


[vval, vabsVal, wvf, vcol, vlinRegColor, vixFixState] = f_getVixFixLinReg(oClose, oLow, MLength)
[val, absVal, maDiff, absMaDiff, col, linRegColor] = f_getMACandlesLinReg(oClose, MMAType, MLength, mult, lb, ph, pl)


plot(useVixFix?na:absMaDiff, title="Momentum", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth = 4, color=col)
plot(useVixFix?wvf:na, title="VIX Fix", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth = 4, color=vcol)
plot(useVixFix?na:-absVal, title="Linear Regression (Momentum)", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth=4, color=linRegColor)
plot(useVixFix?-vabsVal:na, title="Linear Regression (VIX Fix)", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth=4, color=vlinRegColor)

exitColor = longTrades? color.orange : color.silver
exitPreviousColor = longTrades? color.silver : color.lime
longCondition = (useVixFix? (vixFixState == 1 and vlinRegColor == color.lime) :
                     ((linRegColor == color.orange and linRegColor[1] == color.red) or (linRegColor == color.green and linRegColor[1] != color.green and aggressiveLong)))  and inDateRange and dir>0
exitLongCondition = (col == exitColor and col[1] == exitColor and col[2] == exitPreviousColor and (linRegColor != color.green or not aggressiveLong))

strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, when=longCondition, oca_name="oca_buy")
strategy.close("Long", when=exitLongCondition)