高级马尔可夫模型技术指标融合交易策略

/*backtest
start: 2024-06-30 00:00:00
end: 2024-07-30 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5
strategy("Advanced Markov Model Trading Strategy", overlay=true)

// Parameters for defining market states
shortMA = input(10, title="Short MA Length")
longMA = input(50, title="Long MA Length")
rsiPeriod = input(14, title="RSI Period")
rsiOverbought = input(70, title="RSI Overbought Level")
rsiOversold = input(30, title="RSI Oversold Level")
volatilityLength = input(20, title="Volatility Length")
volatilityThreshold = input(1.5, title="Volatility Threshold")

// Calculating technical indicators
shortMovingAverage = ta.sma(close, shortMA)
longMovingAverage = ta.sma(close, longMA)
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiPeriod)
volatility = ta.stdev(close, volatilityLength)

// Defining market states based on indicators
bullish = ta.crossover(shortMovingAverage, longMovingAverage) and rsi < rsiOverbought
bearish = ta.crossunder(shortMovingAverage, longMovingAverage) and rsi > rsiOversold
neutral = not bullish and not bearish

// Advanced market state definitions based on volatility
highVolatility = volatility > volatilityThreshold
lowVolatility = not highVolatility

// Transition probabilities (simplified due to script limitations)
var float bullishToBearishProb = 0.2
var float bearishToBullishProb = 0.3
var float bullishToNeutralProb = 0.5
var float bearishToNeutralProb = 0.4
var float neutralToBullishProb = 0.3
var float neutralToBearishProb = 0.2

// Declare nextState and currentState variables
var int nextState = na
var int currentState = na

// Simulated Markov transition (this is a simplification)
var float entryPrice = na
if bullish
    currentState := 1
    if math.random() < bullishToBearishProb
        nextState := 2
    else if math.random() < bullishToNeutralProb
        nextState := 3
    else
        nextState := 1
else if bearish
    currentState := 2
    if math.random() < bearishToBullishProb
        nextState := 1
    else if math.random() < bearishToNeutralProb
        nextState := 3
    else
        nextState := 2
else
    currentState := 3
    if math.random() < neutralToBullishProb
        nextState := 1
    else if math.random() < neutralToBearishProb
        nextState := 2
    else
        nextState := 3

// Trading signals based on state transitions
if nextState == 1  // Bullish
    if na(entryPrice)
        entryPrice := close
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
else if nextState == 2  // Bearish
    if not na(entryPrice)
        strategy.close("Long")
        entryPrice := na
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)
else  // Neutral
    strategy.close("Long")
    strategy.close("Short")
    entryPrice := na

// Plotting
plot(shortMovingAverage, color=color.blue, linewidth=1, title="Short MA")
plot(longMovingAverage, color=color.red, linewidth=1, title="Long MA")
hline(rsiOverbought, "RSI Overbought", color=color.red, linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(rsiOversold, "RSI Oversold", color=color.green, linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
plot(rsi, color=color.purple, linewidth=1, title="RSI")
plot(volatility, color=color.orange, linewidth=1, title="Volatility")

// Background color based on market states
bgcolor(currentState == 1 ? color.new(color.green, 90) : na, title="Bullish")
bgcolor(currentState == 2 ? color.new(color.red, 90) : na, title="Bearish")

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