Turtle Short Breakout-Strategie


Erstellungsdatum: 2023-09-13 14:05:12 zuletzt geändert: 2023-09-13 14:05:12
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Diese Strategie basiert auf dem bekannten “Sea-Trading-System”, bei dem bei einem oberflächlichen Trend eine oberflächliche Akquisition bei wichtigen Unterstützungswerten durchgeführt wird.

Die Strategie:

  1. Setzen Sie die 10-Tage-Tief, 20-Tage-Tief und 55-Tage-Tief als wichtige Unterstützungslinien.

  2. Wenn der Preis die 20- oder 55-Tage-Unterstützungslinie überschreitet, wird mit leeren Händen eingegeben.

  3. Während der Haltung wird bei jeder ATR-Überschreitung ein Leerlauf aufgenommen.

  4. Ein Stop-Out erfolgt, wenn der Preis den 10. oder 20. Hochpunkt erneut überschreitet.

  5. Setzen Sie den ATR-Stopp, und wenn der Preis überschritten wird, wird der Stopp ausgeschaltet.

  6. Die ATR-Multiplikatoren mit individuell angepassten Multiplikatoren und Stop-Losses.

Die Vorteile der Strategie:

  1. Ein Durchbruch der Stützungslinie kann als Trendwendepunkt für eine schwache Tendenz identifiziert werden.

  2. Die Akkumulationsmethode ermöglicht die Ansammlung von Mengen in Trends und die Suche nach höheren Erträgen.

  3. Der ATR-Stop kann je nach Marktschwankungen angepasst werden.

Die Risiken dieser Strategie:

  1. Die Schlüssel-Support-Linien sind zurückgeblieben und könnten die besten Einstiegspunkte verpassen.

  2. Die Risiken der Akkumulation sind schneller und erfordern eine sorgfältige Verwaltung des Kapitals.

  3. Es gibt keine Einschränkungen für die Höhe der Einweg-Verluste, es gibt einen größeren Rückzug.

Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass die Strategie mit einem freien Stop-Loss kombiniert wird. Mit einem Optimierungsparameter kann ein starker Marktzunahme erzielt werden, aber es muss auf Risikokonzentration geachtet werden.

Strategiequellcode
/*backtest
start: 2023-08-13 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-12 00:00:00
period: 5h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=4
//  Copyright by Eugene v1.2 07/18/2019
// This is the short sell version of the strategy based on the famous turtle system.
// https://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/originalturtlerules.htm
//
// In a nutshell, it a trend trading system where you are shorting on strength (in the downtrend), selling on 
// weakness (that it might be reversing).
// positions should be entered when the price crosses under the 20-day low (S1 low) or 55-day low (S2 low).
// positions should be exited when the prices crosses over the 10-day high (S1 high) or 20-day high (S2 high)
// you can add positions at every unit (measured by multiple of n, where n=1 ATR)
// stops should be placed at 2*n above every position entered, when the stop is hit exit your entire position.
// positions should be entered everytime price crosses under S1 or S2, with one exception:
// if the last trade was an S1 trade and it was a winning trade, skip the next trade unless the price crosses
// under S2, if that is the case, you should take it.
// S1 and S2 levels are also configurable for high and lows.
// N multiple for stops and pyramid are also configurable

// To change this from a strateg to a study:
// 1) uncomment the next line and comment out the strategy line.
// 2) at the end of the file comment out the last 2 lines

// study(title="Turtle Study Short", overlay=true)
strategy(title="Turtle Strategy Short", overlay=true, initial_capital=50000, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.1, pyramiding=5)

stopInput = input(2.0, "Stop N", step=.5)
pyramidInput = input(1, "Pyramid N", step=.5)
s1ShortInput = input(20, "S1 Short", minval=5)
s2ShortInput = input(55, "S2 Short", minval=5)
s1ShortExitInput = input (10, "S1 Short Exit", minval=5)
s2ShortExitInput = input (20, "S2 Short Exit", minval=5)

FromYear = input(2000, "From Year", minval=1900),   FromMonth = input(1, "From Month", minval=1, maxval=12),    FromDay = input(1, "From Day", minval=1, maxval=31)
ToYear = input(9999, "To Year", minval=1900),       ToMonth = input(1, "To Month", minval=1, maxval=12),        ToDay = input(1, "To Day", minval=1, maxval=31)
FromDate = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00),     ToDate = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)
TradeDateIsAllowed() => time >= FromDate and time <= ToDate
s1Short = lowest(s1ShortInput)
s1ShortExit = highest(s1ShortExitInput)
s2Short = lowest(s2ShortInput)
s2ShortExit = highest(s2ShortExitInput)

bool win = false // tracks if last trade was winning trade of losing trade.
float totalPrice = 0.0  // tracks total price, used for calculating avgPrice
float buyPrice = 0.0 // tracks the buy price of the last short position.
float avgPrice = 0.0 // tracks the avg price of all currently held short positions.
float nextBuyPrice = 0.0  // tracks the next buy price
float stopPrice = na // tracks the stop price
int totalBuys = 0  // tracks the total # of pyramid buys
bool inBuy = false  // tracks if we are in a short position or not.
float s1ShortPlot = lowest(s1ShortInput)  // tracks the S1 price to display
float s2ShortPlot = lowest(s2ShortInput)  // tracks the S2 price to display
float n = atr(14)  // tracks the n used to calculate stops and pyramid buys
string mode = 'S1'  // tracks whether we are in a S1 position or S2 position.
bool fake = na // tracks if this is a fake trade, see comments below.
string shortLevel = na  // tracks where short positions, stops, pyramid buys occur.

// by default use the last value from the previous bar.
buyPrice := buyPrice[1]
totalBuys := totalBuys[1]
nextBuyPrice := nextBuyPrice[1]
stopPrice := stopPrice[1]
avgPrice := avgPrice[1]
totalPrice := totalPrice[1]
win := win[1]

// State to track if we are in a short positon or not.
inBuy := not inBuy[1] and (close < s1Short[1] or close < s2Short[1]) ? true : inBuy[1]
inBuy := inBuy[1] and close > stopPrice ? false : inBuy
inBuy := inBuy[1] and (close > s1ShortExit[1] or close > s2ShortExit[1])  ? false : inBuy

// State to track if we are ia a fake trade.  If the last trade was a winning, we need to skip the next trade.
// We still track it though as a fake trade (not counted against us). as the outcome determines if we can
// can take the next trade.
fake := close < s2Short[1] ? false : fake[1]
fake := not inBuy[1] and close < s1Short[1] and win[1] ? true : fake
fake := not inBuy[1] and close < s1Short[1] and not win[1] ? false : fake

// Series representing the s1 and s2 levels.   If we break out above the s1 or s2 level, we want the
// line to stay at the breakout level, not follow it up.
s1ShortPlot := iff(not inBuy or (inBuy and mode == 'S1' and fake),s1Short[1],s1ShortPlot[1])
s2ShortPlot := iff(not inBuy or (inBuy and mode == 'S1' and fake),s2Short[1],s2ShortPlot[1])


// Variable in the series is only set when it happens.   Possible values is S1, S2, SR 
// (stopped out with a loss), SG (exited with a gain), and 'P' for pyramid buy.
shortLevel := not inBuy[1] and close < s2Short[1] ? 'S2' : na
shortLevel := not inBuy[1] and close < s1Short[1] ? 'S1' : shortLevel
shortLevel := not inBuy[1] and close < s1Short[1] and close < s2Short[1]  and fake ? 'S2' : shortLevel
shortLevel := shortLevel == na and close < s2Short[1] and mode[1] == 'S1' ? na : shortLevel // don't switch to S2 if we are already in a S1
shortLevel := shortLevel == na and close < s2Short[1] and mode[1] == 'S1' and fake[1] ? 'S2' : shortLevel

// Either 'S1' or 'S2' depending on what breakout level we are in.
mode := shortLevel == na ? mode[1] : shortLevel

// Variables to track calculating avgPrice and nextBuyPrice for pyramiding.
if shortLevel == 'S1' or shortLevel == 'S2'
    buyPrice = close
    totalBuys := 1
    totalPrice := close
    avgPrice := buyPrice
    stopPrice := close + (stopInput*n)
    nextBuyPrice := low - (pyramidInput*n)

// Marks if we hit our next buy price, if so mark it with a 'P'
shortLevel := inBuy[1] and close < nextBuyPrice and TradeDateIsAllowed() and totalBuys < 5 ? 'P' : shortLevel

if shortLevel == 'P'
    buyPrice = close
    totalBuys := totalBuys[1] + 1
    totalPrice := totalPrice[1] + buyPrice
    avgPrice := totalPrice / totalBuys
    stopPrice := close + (stopInput*n)
    nextBuyPrice := low - (pyramidInput*n)

// Tracks stops and exits, marking them with SG or SR
shortLevel := shortLevel == na and inBuy[1] and close > stopPrice and close <= avgPrice ? 'SG' : shortLevel
shortLevel := shortLevel == na and inBuy[1] and close > stopPrice and close > avgPrice ? 'SR' : shortLevel
shortLevel := shortLevel == na and inBuy[1] and (close > s1ShortExit[1] or close > s2ShortExit[1]) and close <= avgPrice ? 'SG' : shortLevel
shortLevel := shortLevel == na and inBuy[1] and (close > s1ShortExit[1] or close > s2ShortExit[1]) and close > avgPrice ? 'SR' : shortLevel

// Tracks if the trade was a win or loss.
win := shortLevel == 'SG' ? true : win
win := shortLevel == 'SR' ? false : win

// Variables used to tell strategy when to enter/exit trade.
enterShort = (shortLevel == 'S1' or shortLevel == 'S2' or shortLevel == 'P') and not fake and TradeDateIsAllowed()
exitShort = (shortLevel == 'SG' or shortLevel == 'SR') and not fake and TradeDateIsAllowed()

p1 = plot(s1ShortPlot, title="s1 short", linewidth=3, style=plot.style_stepline, color=color.green)
p2 = plot(s1ShortExit[1], title="s1 exit", linewidth=3, style=plot.style_stepline, color=color.red)
p3 = plot(s2ShortPlot, title="s2 short", linewidth=2, style=plot.style_stepline, color=color.green)
p4 = plot(s2ShortExit[1], title="s2 exit", linewidth=2, style=plot.style_stepline, color=color.red)
color1 = color.new(color.black, 0)
color2 = color.new(color.black, 100)
col= (inBuy) ? color1 : color2
p5 = plot(stopPrice, title="stop", linewidth=2, style=plot.style_circles, join=true, color=col)
p6 = plot(nextBuyPrice, title="next buy", linewidth=2, style=plot.style_circles, join=true, color=col)

fill(p1, p3, color=color.green)
fill(p2, p4, color=color.red)

plotshape(shortLevel == 'S1' and not fake ? true : false, color=color.green, transp=40, style=shape.triangleup, text="S1") // up arrow for entering S1 trade
plotshape(fake and shortLevel == 'S1' ? true : false, color=color.gray, transp=40, style=shape.triangleup, text="S1") // up arrow for entering S1 trade
plotshape((mode == 'S2' or (mode == 'S1' and not fake)) and shortLevel == 'P' ? true : false, color=color.green, transp=40, style=shape.triangleup, text='P') // up arrow for entering S1 trade
plotshape(mode == 'S1' and fake and shortLevel == 'P' ? true : false, color=color.gray, transp=40, style=shape.triangleup, text='P') // up arrow for entering S1 trade
plotshape(shortLevel == 'S2' ? true : false, color=color.green, transp=40, style=shape.triangleup, text="S2") // up arrow for entering S2 trade

plotarrow(shortLevel == 'S1' ? 1 : 0, colordown=color.black, colorup=color.green, transp=40) // up arrow for entering S1 trade
plotarrow(shortLevel == 'S2' ? 1 : 0, colordown=color.black, colorup=color.green, transp=40) // up arrow for entering S2 trade
plotarrow(shortLevel == 'SR' ? -1 : 0, colordown=color.red, colorup=color.purple, transp=40) // down arrow for losing trade
plotarrow(shortLevel == 'SG' ? -1 : 0, colordown=color.green, colorup=color.purple, transp=40) // down arrow for winning trade

// plotarrow(mode == 'S1' ? -1 : 0, colordown=color.yellow, colorup=color.purple, transp=40) // down arrow for winning trade
// plotshape(inBuy[1], color=color.blue, transp=40, text='X') // down arrow for winning trade
// label.new(bar_index, high, style=label.style_none, text=tostring(avgPrice))

alertcondition(low < stopPrice, title="crosses over stop price", message="price croses over stop price")
alertcondition(high > s1Short, title="crosses under S1 price", message="price crossed under S1 price")
alertcondition(high > s2Short, title="crosses under S2 price", message="price crossed under S2 price")
alertcondition(low < s1ShortExit, title="crosses over S1 exit price", message="price crossed over S1 exit price")
alertcondition(low < s2ShortExit, title="crosses over S2 exit price", message="price crossed over S2 exit price")

strategy.entry("short", strategy.short, comment='short', when=enterShort)
strategy.close("short", when=exitShort)