전략에 따른 복합 추세

저자:차오장, 날짜: 2023-09-16 19:10:37
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전반적인 설명

이 문서에서는 트렌드를 결정하기 위해 여러 지표를 결합한 양적 거래 전략을 소개합니다. 이동 평균, 새로운 최고/하위, 연간 수준 등을 사용하여 중장기 가격 흐름을 추적합니다.

전략 논리

이 전략은 다음을 기본으로 합니다.

  1. 이동평균을 이용하고, 새로운 최고/하위 지수를 사용하여 가격 추세를 결정합니다.

  2. 단기적인 문제를 피하기 위해 연간 수준을 포함합니다.

  3. 가짜를 필터링하기 위해 선렬된 표시자 펀드 신호를 입력합니다.

  4. 트렌드 수익을 확보하기 위해 슈퍼트렌드를 따라다니다.

  5. 이동 평균 위반에 대해 멈추는 것.

이점 분석

전략의 장점:

  1. 여러 가지 지표가 의사 결정의 정확성을 향상시킵니다.

  2. 명확한 트렌드를 거래하면 불필요한 거래를 피할 수 있습니다.

  3. 슈퍼트렌드는 수익을 확보하고 유출을 줄여줍니다.

  4. 유출을 신속히 막으면 승률이 높아집니다.

  5. 명확한 논리는 최적화를 직관적으로 만듭니다.

위험 분석

잠재적인 위험은 다음과 같습니다.

  1. 여러 필터가 놓친 트레이드를 유발할 수 있습니다.

  2. 슈퍼트렌드 트레일은 수익을 과도하게 제한할 수 있습니다.

  3. 잘못된 탈출 정지는 불필요한 출구를 야기합니다.

  4. 매개 변수 조절은 성능에 큰 영향을 미칩니다.

결론

이 전략은 트렌드를 결정하기 위해 여러 가지 기술 지표를 결합합니다. 적절한 최적화와 함께 좋은 수익을 얻을 수 있습니다. 그러나 거래자는 트렌드 정확성을 관찰하고 그에 따라 매개 변수를 조정해야합니다.


/*backtest
start: 2023-08-16 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-15 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © HeWhoMustNotBeNamed

//@version=4
strategy("AlignedMA and Cumulative HighLow Strategy V2", overlay=true, initial_capital = 1000, default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, pyramiding = 1, commission_value = 0.01, calc_on_order_fills = true)

MAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="hma", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
includePartiallyAligned = input(true)
HighLowPeriod = input(22, minval=1,step=1)
LookbackPeriod = input(10, minval=1,step=1)
considerYearlyHighLow = input(false)

dirTBars = input(1)
dirRBars = input(30)

PMAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="ema", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
PMALength = input(10, minval=2, step=10)
shift = input(2, minval=1, step=1)

//Use 2 for ASX stocks
supertrendMult = input(3, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)
supertrendLength = input(22, minval=1)

riskReward = input(2, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)

tradeDirection = input(title="Trade Direction", defval=strategy.direction.all, options=[strategy.direction.all, strategy.direction.long, strategy.direction.short])
backtestYears = input(1, minval=1, step=1)

f_getMovingAverage(source, MAType, length)=>
    ma = sma(source, length)
    if(MAType == "ema")
        ma := ema(source,length)
    if(MAType == "hma")
        ma := hma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "rma")
        ma := rma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "vwma")
        ma := vwma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "wma")
        ma := wma(source,length)
    ma
    
f_getMaAlignment(MAType, includePartiallyAligned)=>
    ma5 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,5)
    ma10 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,10)
    ma20 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,20)
    ma30 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,30)
    ma50 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,50)
    ma100 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,100)
    ma200 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,200)

    upwardScore = 0
    upwardScore := close > ma5? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma5 > ma10? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma10 > ma20? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma20 > ma30? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma30 > ma50? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma50 > ma100? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma100 > ma200? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    
    upwards = close > ma5 and ma5 > ma10 and ma10 > ma20 and ma20 > ma30 and ma30 > ma50 and ma50 > ma100 and ma100 > ma200
    downwards = close < ma5 and ma5 < ma10 and ma10 < ma20 and ma20 < ma30 and ma30 < ma50 and ma50 < ma100 and ma100 < ma200
    upwards?1:downwards?-1:includePartiallyAligned ? (upwardScore > 5? 0.5: upwardScore < 2?-0.5:upwardScore>3?0.25:-0.25) : 0

f_getHighLowValue(HighLowPeriod)=>
    currentHigh = highest(high,HighLowPeriod) == high
    currentLow = lowest(low,HighLowPeriod) == low
    currentHigh?1:currentLow?-1:0

f_getDirection(Series)=>
    direction = Series > Series[1] ? 1 : Series < Series[1] ? -1 : 0
    direction := direction == 0? nz(direction[1],0):direction
    direction

f_getDirectionT(Series, tBars, rBars)=>
    compH = Series > 0? Series[tBars] : Series[rBars]
    compL = Series < 0? Series[tBars] : Series[rBars]
    direction = Series > compH ? 1 : Series < compL ? -1 : 0
    direction := direction == 0? nz(direction[1],0):direction
    direction

f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)=>
    yhigh = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', high[1]) 
    ylow = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', low[1]) 
    yhighlast = yhigh[365]
    ylowlast = ylow[365]
    yhighllast = yhigh[2 * 365]
    ylowllast = ylow[2 * 365]
    
    yearlyTrendUp = na(yhigh)? true : na(yhighlast)? close > yhigh : na(yhighllast)? close > max(yhigh,yhighlast) : close > max(yhigh, min(yhighlast, yhighllast))
    yearlyHighCondition = (  (na(yhigh) or na(yhighlast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighlast) ) and ( na(yhigh) or na(yhighllast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighllast))) or yearlyTrendUp or not considerYearlyHighLow
    yearlyTrendDown = na(ylow)? true : na(ylowlast)? close < ylow : na(ylowllast)? close < min(ylow,ylowlast) : close < min(ylow, max(ylowlast, ylowllast))
    yearlyLowCondition = (  (na(ylow) or na(ylowlast) ? true : (ylow < ylowlast) ) and ( na(ylow) or na(ylowllast) ? true : (ylow < ylowllast))) or yearlyTrendDown or not considerYearlyHighLow
    
    [yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition]

f_getOpenCloseMA(MAType, length)=>
    openMA = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, length)
    closeMA = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, length)
    direction = openMA < closeMA ? 1 : -1
    [openMA, closeMA, direction]

inDateRange = true

maAlignment = f_getMaAlignment(MAType,includePartiallyAligned)
alignedMaIndex = sum(maAlignment,LookbackPeriod)

maAlignmentDirection=f_getDirectionT(alignedMaIndex,dirTBars, dirRBars)
atr = atr(22)
highLowIndex = f_getHighLowValue(HighLowPeriod)
cumulativeHighLowIndex = sum(highLowIndex,LookbackPeriod)

hlDirection = f_getDirectionT(cumulativeHighLowIndex,dirTBars,dirRBars)
[yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition] = f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)
[supertrend, dir] = supertrend(supertrendMult, supertrendLength)
[esupertrend, edir] = supertrend(supertrendMult+1, supertrendLength)

movingAverage = f_getMovingAverage(close, PMAType, PMALength)

secondaryBuyFilter = movingAverage > movingAverage[shift]
secondarySellFilter = movingAverage < movingAverage[shift]

closeBuyFilter = dir == 1
closeSellFilter = dir == -1
buyFilter = (maAlignmentDirection == 1 and hlDirection == 1 and yearlyHighCondition)
sellFilter = (maAlignmentDirection == -1 and hlDirection == -1 and yearlyLowCondition)

barColor = buyFilter?color.lime:sellFilter?color.orange:color.gray

bandColor = secondaryBuyFilter ? color.green : secondarySellFilter ? color.red : color.gray

compound = strategy.position_size > 0? strategy.position_avg_price + (atr* supertrendMult * riskReward) : strategy.position_size < 0 ? strategy.position_avg_price - (atr* supertrendMult * riskReward) : na
riskFree = na(compound)?false:strategy.position_size > 0 ? supertrend > compound : strategy.position_size < 0 ? supertrend < compound : false

trailingStop = riskFree?(dir==-1?supertrend - 2*atr : supertrend + 2*atr) :supertrend
trailingStop := (strategy.position_size > 0 and trailingStop < trailingStop[1]) ? trailingStop[1] :  ((strategy.position_size < 0 and trailingStop > trailingStop[1])? trailingStop[1] :trailingStop)
plot(trailingStop, title="Supertrend", color=riskFree? color.blue:dir==-1?color.green:color.red, linewidth=2)


buyEntry = buyFilter and secondaryBuyFilter and not closeBuyFilter and low > trailingStop
sellEntry = sellFilter and secondarySellFilter and not closeSellFilter and low < trailingStop
Fi1 = plot(movingAverage[shift], title="MA", color=color.red, linewidth=1, transp=50)
Fi2 = plot(movingAverage, title="Shift", color=color.green, linewidth=1, transp=50)
fill(Fi1, Fi2, title="Band Filler", color=bandColor, transp=40)

barcolor(barColor)

//plot(compound, title="Compound"mzn, color=dir==-1?color.lime:color.orange, linewidth=2)

strategy.risk.allow_entry_in(tradeDirection)
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long, when=buyEntry and inDateRange and (riskFree or strategy.position_size==0), oca_name="oca_buy")
strategy.exit("ExitBuy", "Buy", stop = trailingStop)
strategy.close("Buy", when=closeBuyFilter)


strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short, when=sellEntry and inDateRange and (riskFree or strategy.position_size==0), oca_name="oca_sell")
strategy.exit("ExitSell", "Buy", stop = trailingStop)
strategy.close("Sell", when=closeSellFilter)


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