Tendência composta na sequência da estratégia

Autora:ChaoZhang, Data: 2023-09-16 19:10:37
Tags:

Resumo

Este artigo apresenta uma estratégia quantitativa de negociação que combina múltiplos indicadores para determinar tendências.

Estratégia lógica

A estratégia baseia-se em:

  1. Usando médias móveis, novo índice de altas/baixas para determinar a tendência dos preços.

  2. Incorporar níveis anuais para evitar problemas de curto prazo.

  3. Entrando em sinais de conjunto de indicadores alinhados para filtrar falsificações.

  4. A seguir com a super tendência para garantir os lucros da tendência.

  5. Parando em violações de média móvel.

Análise das vantagens

Vantagens da estratégia:

  1. Os múltiplos indicadores melhoram a precisão das decisões.

  2. Apenas a negociação de tendências claras evita negociações desnecessárias.

  3. Supertrend trailing bloqueia os lucros e reduz os drawdowns.

  4. Paradas oportunas nas fugas melhoram a taxa de vitória.

  5. Uma lógica clara torna a otimização intuitiva.

Análise de riscos

Os riscos potenciais incluem:

  1. Vários filtros podem causar trocas perdidas.

  2. As trilhas de tendências podem limitar os lucros.

  3. Falhas de fuga causam saídas desnecessárias.

  4. O ajuste dos parâmetros afeta significativamente o desempenho.

Conclusão

Esta estratégia combina múltiplos indicadores técnicos para determinar a tendência. Com a otimização adequada, pode alcançar bons retornos. Mas os comerciantes devem observar a precisão da tendência e ajustar os parâmetros de acordo.


/*backtest
start: 2023-08-16 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-15 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © HeWhoMustNotBeNamed

//@version=4
strategy("AlignedMA and Cumulative HighLow Strategy V2", overlay=true, initial_capital = 1000, default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, pyramiding = 1, commission_value = 0.01, calc_on_order_fills = true)

MAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="hma", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
includePartiallyAligned = input(true)
HighLowPeriod = input(22, minval=1,step=1)
LookbackPeriod = input(10, minval=1,step=1)
considerYearlyHighLow = input(false)

dirTBars = input(1)
dirRBars = input(30)

PMAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="ema", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
PMALength = input(10, minval=2, step=10)
shift = input(2, minval=1, step=1)

//Use 2 for ASX stocks
supertrendMult = input(3, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)
supertrendLength = input(22, minval=1)

riskReward = input(2, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)

tradeDirection = input(title="Trade Direction", defval=strategy.direction.all, options=[strategy.direction.all, strategy.direction.long, strategy.direction.short])
backtestYears = input(1, minval=1, step=1)

f_getMovingAverage(source, MAType, length)=>
    ma = sma(source, length)
    if(MAType == "ema")
        ma := ema(source,length)
    if(MAType == "hma")
        ma := hma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "rma")
        ma := rma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "vwma")
        ma := vwma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "wma")
        ma := wma(source,length)
    ma
    
f_getMaAlignment(MAType, includePartiallyAligned)=>
    ma5 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,5)
    ma10 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,10)
    ma20 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,20)
    ma30 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,30)
    ma50 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,50)
    ma100 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,100)
    ma200 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,200)

    upwardScore = 0
    upwardScore := close > ma5? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma5 > ma10? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma10 > ma20? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma20 > ma30? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma30 > ma50? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma50 > ma100? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    upwardScore := ma100 > ma200? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
    
    upwards = close > ma5 and ma5 > ma10 and ma10 > ma20 and ma20 > ma30 and ma30 > ma50 and ma50 > ma100 and ma100 > ma200
    downwards = close < ma5 and ma5 < ma10 and ma10 < ma20 and ma20 < ma30 and ma30 < ma50 and ma50 < ma100 and ma100 < ma200
    upwards?1:downwards?-1:includePartiallyAligned ? (upwardScore > 5? 0.5: upwardScore < 2?-0.5:upwardScore>3?0.25:-0.25) : 0

f_getHighLowValue(HighLowPeriod)=>
    currentHigh = highest(high,HighLowPeriod) == high
    currentLow = lowest(low,HighLowPeriod) == low
    currentHigh?1:currentLow?-1:0

f_getDirection(Series)=>
    direction = Series > Series[1] ? 1 : Series < Series[1] ? -1 : 0
    direction := direction == 0? nz(direction[1],0):direction
    direction

f_getDirectionT(Series, tBars, rBars)=>
    compH = Series > 0? Series[tBars] : Series[rBars]
    compL = Series < 0? Series[tBars] : Series[rBars]
    direction = Series > compH ? 1 : Series < compL ? -1 : 0
    direction := direction == 0? nz(direction[1],0):direction
    direction

f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)=>
    yhigh = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', high[1]) 
    ylow = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', low[1]) 
    yhighlast = yhigh[365]
    ylowlast = ylow[365]
    yhighllast = yhigh[2 * 365]
    ylowllast = ylow[2 * 365]
    
    yearlyTrendUp = na(yhigh)? true : na(yhighlast)? close > yhigh : na(yhighllast)? close > max(yhigh,yhighlast) : close > max(yhigh, min(yhighlast, yhighllast))
    yearlyHighCondition = (  (na(yhigh) or na(yhighlast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighlast) ) and ( na(yhigh) or na(yhighllast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighllast))) or yearlyTrendUp or not considerYearlyHighLow
    yearlyTrendDown = na(ylow)? true : na(ylowlast)? close < ylow : na(ylowllast)? close < min(ylow,ylowlast) : close < min(ylow, max(ylowlast, ylowllast))
    yearlyLowCondition = (  (na(ylow) or na(ylowlast) ? true : (ylow < ylowlast) ) and ( na(ylow) or na(ylowllast) ? true : (ylow < ylowllast))) or yearlyTrendDown or not considerYearlyHighLow
    
    [yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition]

f_getOpenCloseMA(MAType, length)=>
    openMA = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, length)
    closeMA = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, length)
    direction = openMA < closeMA ? 1 : -1
    [openMA, closeMA, direction]

inDateRange = true

maAlignment = f_getMaAlignment(MAType,includePartiallyAligned)
alignedMaIndex = sum(maAlignment,LookbackPeriod)

maAlignmentDirection=f_getDirectionT(alignedMaIndex,dirTBars, dirRBars)
atr = atr(22)
highLowIndex = f_getHighLowValue(HighLowPeriod)
cumulativeHighLowIndex = sum(highLowIndex,LookbackPeriod)

hlDirection = f_getDirectionT(cumulativeHighLowIndex,dirTBars,dirRBars)
[yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition] = f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)
[supertrend, dir] = supertrend(supertrendMult, supertrendLength)
[esupertrend, edir] = supertrend(supertrendMult+1, supertrendLength)

movingAverage = f_getMovingAverage(close, PMAType, PMALength)

secondaryBuyFilter = movingAverage > movingAverage[shift]
secondarySellFilter = movingAverage < movingAverage[shift]

closeBuyFilter = dir == 1
closeSellFilter = dir == -1
buyFilter = (maAlignmentDirection == 1 and hlDirection == 1 and yearlyHighCondition)
sellFilter = (maAlignmentDirection == -1 and hlDirection == -1 and yearlyLowCondition)

barColor = buyFilter?color.lime:sellFilter?color.orange:color.gray

bandColor = secondaryBuyFilter ? color.green : secondarySellFilter ? color.red : color.gray

compound = strategy.position_size > 0? strategy.position_avg_price + (atr* supertrendMult * riskReward) : strategy.position_size < 0 ? strategy.position_avg_price - (atr* supertrendMult * riskReward) : na
riskFree = na(compound)?false:strategy.position_size > 0 ? supertrend > compound : strategy.position_size < 0 ? supertrend < compound : false

trailingStop = riskFree?(dir==-1?supertrend - 2*atr : supertrend + 2*atr) :supertrend
trailingStop := (strategy.position_size > 0 and trailingStop < trailingStop[1]) ? trailingStop[1] :  ((strategy.position_size < 0 and trailingStop > trailingStop[1])? trailingStop[1] :trailingStop)
plot(trailingStop, title="Supertrend", color=riskFree? color.blue:dir==-1?color.green:color.red, linewidth=2)


buyEntry = buyFilter and secondaryBuyFilter and not closeBuyFilter and low > trailingStop
sellEntry = sellFilter and secondarySellFilter and not closeSellFilter and low < trailingStop
Fi1 = plot(movingAverage[shift], title="MA", color=color.red, linewidth=1, transp=50)
Fi2 = plot(movingAverage, title="Shift", color=color.green, linewidth=1, transp=50)
fill(Fi1, Fi2, title="Band Filler", color=bandColor, transp=40)

barcolor(barColor)

//plot(compound, title="Compound"mzn, color=dir==-1?color.lime:color.orange, linewidth=2)

strategy.risk.allow_entry_in(tradeDirection)
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long, when=buyEntry and inDateRange and (riskFree or strategy.position_size==0), oca_name="oca_buy")
strategy.exit("ExitBuy", "Buy", stop = trailingStop)
strategy.close("Buy", when=closeBuyFilter)


strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short, when=sellEntry and inDateRange and (riskFree or strategy.position_size==0), oca_name="oca_sell")
strategy.exit("ExitSell", "Buy", stop = trailingStop)
strategy.close("Sell", when=closeSellFilter)


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