On the one hand, there are many examples on the Internet of people who lose a lot of money on futures and end up divorcing their wives, and even more sadly, from their speeches on the forums, they are always repeating their own tragic stories, and they have not progressed a bit. I am not a sympathetic person, and I do not know them very well (I have very few futures around), but seeing these stories I am still very sad, and I would be very happy if I could help them a little.
I was born in the countryside, and from a young age I was a very disciplined person, a puppet in the eyes of my parents and teachers. I went to university, went to work, got married, had children, and my life was basically unpredictable. I was a very conservative person, but I was very unstable in my bones, for example, I never had the courage to quit my job and put all my family into entrepreneurship, but I always thought about selling my house and planting a few fruit trees every day to wake up naturally; for example, I believe that a person who works partly to harvest a part of the crop really hates to dream about not working all day, but I always wonder if there is a way to make a legitimate income by sitting at home.
So far, I've done a lot of research. I've looked at digital lotteries, football lotteries, peripheral sites, I've bought balls, I've looked at stocks, A shares, B shares, old-school, futures.
But I have just said that I am extremely conservative, although I also play football lottery, but after trying several times to find out that I can't make a stable profit, I only buy twenty bucks to play, or just don't play, and say that I can take it, half a year without betting a bit of impact; when I first came into contact with futures, I thought it was an opportunity to sit at home, but after the development of a heavy warehouse hit the wall, I naturally lowered the storage level, reducing psychological expectations, but instead received unexpected effects.
The conservative personality has given me a lot of time to be a jerk, but it has also given me something that smart people don't get.
I'm a typical tech guy, I like to do research before doing anything, to see if there's a way to make a long-term profit. When I know about futures, I'm just excited, this is good, it's free, T + 0, the procedure costs are low, just study some rules, can't you sit at home and make money?
So I spent a lot of time researching the K line, the institutional stock data, the daily increase in inventory, the online search for supply and demand, even the weather in the home country. The result is that everyone can expect these things to look good, but there's nothing to it. What do you mean? A few years later, when I had relatively stable profits, I used to have a great admiration for the saying that the leverage indicator reflects all the data leverage and does not ignore the fundamentals. The saying is not wrong, too much data, mainstream retail holdings, participant mentality changes, even the intentional pushing and pulling of the mainstream, everything, everything, can be reflected from the plate.
The problem is that the basics are only suitable for institutional users with large capital, people with enough money, and people's relationships to understand the real supply of goods. Those who can find the so-called basic information on the Internet, do not call the basics, and even often are used to entice small retailers to reverse operations, relying on these to make the dish, you will die. The reason is very simple, the information you see, others can also see that if you rely on this to make the dish, others can also, of course, if you can bone, why can not everyone else?
So, always keep in mind that what you need to do is to seriously learn some real techniques, big graphic shapes, such as triangle rise, triangle adjustment, double bottom double top, head shoulder top, shoulder bottom etc. (Of course, this does not mean that the more you learn the better the technique, in fact some simple K-lines or even lines, which I will talk about in detail later, are the trading rules that you should stick to), do not waste time after the closing of each day to check the changes in the dominant position, the news in the daily news before the opening, do not go online to search for the supply and demand of commodities, or whether it rains or not this year, whether there is no El Nino.
In fact, if you relax your mind, put it in the right place, you can get 20% a year, but if you think about 200% a year, maybe you become a monkey.
We can do a simple calculation, if you only trade one variety and hold 20%, then you will double your returns on that variety, and your total returns will be 20%. Suppose the collateral ratio is 10%, and you only need the variety you hold to run 10% in the direction of your position.
But why can't the vast majority of people do it? Mostly because of the holding ratio, the overweight ratio affects the mindset, and the mindset also affects the execution of your discipline, so to say that holding too much is the first taboo of futures trading, countless people shout all day long in their mouths, one to the real trading, the mood is messy, everything is clean. In recent years, I have generally kept the holding ratio below 20%, never more than 30%, so I can put the stop loss relatively large, it will not disturb the market when the market fluctuates, someone will say that it is in a volatile market, if you do the opposite direction of the market.
So as long as you really make it easy and not just keep it to yourself, the goal of a return of more than 20% per year is more difficult than it is possible.
If someone just mentioned the black swan, let's start with the black swan.
Black swans are actually divided into two types: one is a sudden event that is only closely related to the variety you are trading, such as the tyre special case of that year, which has a huge impact on the swan, but has little impact on other varieties; and another is a systemic effect that will cause all varieties of mudslides or bulls to rise, such as interest rate cuts, such as the stock futures that plummeted in the stock market crash last year. Black swans are sudden and unpredictable, and if they could be prevented, they would not be called black swans.
The effect of the black swan is particularly evident at this time, even if you eat two falls like the monkey of that year (this is already a very extreme situation), if the position is very light, and the long-term trend has not changed, what does it matter if you suffer a loss at a time. Many people are heavy and even full of stock operations, don't look at what he usually doubles a month, half a year four times five times, such a situation only happens once, the immediate capital loss is almost as much as to pay back the futures company, wanting to flip back is something that happens many years later.
If the light market meets the black swan, my personal practice is, if it's a very definite one-sided market, uniform multi-head practice, the K-line shape is also pretty stable, I'll be stunned. Because I'm a trend maker, looking at the long-term trend, the trend of a commodity once formed, is not so easy to change, black swan does not work. If it's a volatile market, I will stop the exit, there is no hesitation, the loss is part of the deal, look wrong or bad luck, have to accept the exit, this is a way of respecting the market, if you have always respected the market, the market will give you a good return.
I personally don't like to trade too many varieties, one with limited funds, the other with limited time and energy. I've seen 50,000 people who trade six or seven varieties at the same time, and I don't understand this practice. Also, there are people who trade two highly related varieties at the same time, such as coke and coke, soup and bean soup, which makes no sense, if you do more/nothing, you choose the stronger/weaker one, the position is a little heavier, can't you?
I have tested almost all varieties with the same operating system, and found that the success rate on white sugar, cork, cotton and velvet is the lowest, while in both varieties, palm oil works very well. At first I was of course incredulous, thinking it was just a coincidence, the time was long, the number of times I touched the wall, the number of times I tasted the dessert, people slowly understood, each trading system style is fixed, and the main style of the different varieties is also not easy to change, when you meet the main style of your style, your system will be very effective, and in turn get used to it.
Looking back, the varieties that fit my trading system are the famous fairy varieties in the futures market, and these varieties can make your eyes roll up and down, so I missed the historic cotton bull market of that year, and sugar cane didn't make me a penny.
When you are ready to trade a variety, you have to first look at its volume, the volume is too fluid, even if you are talented, you can't make money. There are also varieties that may have a volume of tens of millions of hands a day for years and months, but for some time suddenly continuous release, congratulations, this is often an opportunity, this is to determine the direction.
My favorite is that after the equinox, for example, the price suddenly breaks through all the equinoxes, the volume drops, and then slowly rebounds to near the equinoxes and is suppressed back down, which is when I feel the safest opportunity to free up. In short, when the price is going up, I'm ready to go into the market more often, and I'm not very comfortable if the price doesn't step back down a bar; in the same way, when I want to do nothing, if the rebound pressure is not suppressed a little, I don't dare to do too much. So I didn't grab the one-sided market like cotton, which is not adjusted.
It's a very typical idea, and one that I've always wanted to bring up, and if someone mentions it, share it with everyone.
If you have less money, such as 100,000. Is it worth it to spend as much time and effort if you only earn 20,000. Is it worth it to spend as much time and effort if you have less money, for example? In fact, if you are mentally calm and easy to operate, you will not spend too much energy, and if you only have a little money, obviously you can only use futures as a hobby, practice and play, work is your main task, do your job well, use futures as a hobby, spend less time and less effort on it, until you earn some capital, and when you have more practice, you will be able to do it well.
There are too many tens of millions of coins in the forums shouting about how many millions to make, most of them will be eliminated by the market soon, and there are some additional guarantees, but the more you do, the more you lose, not excluding a few people who have lost money or lost money for a few years and survive, but you think, how much time, how much effort, how many years did he spend to make a twenty thousand or even a few thousand dollars.
The futures threshold is very low, a minimum of more than a thousand collateral can be entered, but if you have a total capital of less than 50,000, in fact you have not come in to win this pot of water. Of course, if you have to play, with a learning mentality, bring a few thousand bucks 120,000 bucks in, lose the light, too. Provided you learn from the lost money.
1. asphalt. It was a cold-blooded breed, the turnover was very light, but in the last six months there was clearly a cash flow, and there was a boom in the first half, although there was a callback later, but it had already stepped on the 60-day line firmly under its feet, and the first half was a move to take the calendar. Then there was a step back, and currently the average is between 60 and 120 days.
2.白糖
It is interesting that white sugar has not followed the trend of most commodities since last year, nor has it followed the dramatic rebound of black and agricultural products in the first half of the year, and it is not completely independent of foreign sugar, which is one of the reasons I am so excited. The phrase in the stock, "How much longer is the longer the longer, the better the futures fit".
In the early days of the futures market, I studied various technical indicators, the more real-world tests I did, the more I found out that the simpler things are, the more they don't fool people. Those Brin lines, the various tops are far from the bottom, the two or three lines of the light star twilight, even one or two cloud cover tops, pregnancy lines, whatever, are all fool you without any consideration.
Don't put too much emphasis on various technical indicators, it doesn't mean you don't need to learn technology, the key is that you have to learn to simplify, throw away all the distractions in the market, and focus on what you are focused on. For example, triangle sorting, triangle rising, dome bottom, double bottom, head shoulder bottom, shoulder top, and the longer the cycle, the more effective these formats are, the more effective these formats are, and when combined with the things mentioned in the previous section, the success rate is doubled.
The trap in the market is everywhere, many people rely on the 5-day evenline, 20-day evenline, or 60-day evenline operation, this is not wrong in itself, everyone operates differently. Many people see the price breaks or breaks these evenlines and open or evenly, the main focus is often to see the mindset of retailers, clearly to go up, bias to break the 60-day evenline, causing many heads to be completely defeated, this is the hypothesis of doing more evenly stop, do nothing also abandon the open position, and then pull the dust off.
Translated from the Zen Library
Number of investments 01I've seen the article with the same title before, and then I saw the same id, and two months later, another one popped up...Nima, I'm going to get a job.
The Little Dream