I believe that almost all people enter the futures market with only two motives: to make money and to lose money. No one enters the futures market hoping to lose money. Unfortunately, the market trend will never be shifted by the subjective will of the individual, it will follow its own rules of operation, constantly moving through time in exchange for space, constantly consuming the will of everyone in the market, and will eventually choose a direction or way to operate that 90% of people cannot imagine, until it drives investors out of the market.
Maybe I'm a born pessimist, and I always like to think of the worst outcome under any circumstances, but I think it's probably a good thing when it comes to trading. I think in the futures market there are always things that happen that you don't expect, never think that you have a perfect trading system to be comfortable with, because it's not how good the system is, but the bad things have not happened yet.
There is a real example of this, a very good computer programmer, who himself has some knowledge of futures, who started to study programmatic trading with the hope that he could develop a super powerful trading system, and finally one day he thought he was very successful, he collected data from the US commodity futures market for almost 20 years, and he successfully developed a trading system with a success rate of 85% and an annualized return of more than 100%. He prepared a big game. At one of the tailings meetings in the futures ring, he kept promoting the result system to the people present, of course, people were suspicious of his data.
The trader made three main mistakes: 1, a seriously unreasonable position management; 2, an over-optimization of the trading system; 3, a subjective belief that history can simply repeat itself; 20 years of data over-optimization of a high-win-rate trading system is bound to fail.www.qlhclub.comThe Nobel laureates in economics and the top professional futures traders gathered here to develop a terrifyingly high-win-rate trading system that ended in bankruptcy for a simple reason: the pursuit of perfect certainty is the toxin of the trading system!
There is no certainty in futures trading at all, everything is unknown. Some people think of the futures market as a cash machine, where there is a constant flow of money to be withdrawn... whereas I prefer to think of the futures market as a butcher machine, and a silent butcher machine that may not see a drop of blood if it is killed.
I'm sorry, I can only say I don't know, because I really don't know, the past market never represents the future market, does someone say history will not repeat? I say yes, history will repeat itself, but in trading, history is always repeating the wrong place, why the wrong place?
Translated from the Zen Library