Written by Li Lin Source: known
For investors, it is obvious how much they own; and how much the total market holds is actually available. In the market information published by the exchange, there is a special "Total Holding" section, which means the total number of "non-outstanding contracts" on the futures contract by all investors in the market.
Traders are constantly opening positions at the time of trading, and the total holdings are therefore constantly changing. Since the total holdings are large or small, reflecting the size of the market interest in the contract, it is therefore an indicator that investors are very interested in. If the total holdings are growing, it indicates that both sides are opening positions, and the market traders are increasing interest in the contract, and more and more funds are flowing into the contract; on the contrary, when the total holdings are decreasing, it indicates that both sides are in the spot position, and the trader's interest in the contract is in decline.
Holding volume is a concept unique to the futures market, which refers to the number of contracts that are not at par at a given point in time. Similar to the circulating capital in the stock market, only the circulating capital has only a few heads. Whereas one-handed contracts correspond to many, empty sides, the holding volume statistics have unilateral, bilateral parts.
An increase in the volume of holdings indicates an increase in the flow of funds into the market, an increase in the gap between the two sides in the price trend; a decrease in the volume of holdings indicates a decrease in the flow of funds and a decrease in the trading interest of the two sides. In theory, the volume of holdings in the futures market is unlimited, especially in the case of aggressive hedging. The relationship between the volume of holdings and the price is mainly reflected: in the uptrend, an increase in the volume of holdings is a signal of a solid uptrend, while a decrease in the volume of holdings means that the price may then turn into a shock or even a fall; in the downtrend, the volume of holdings is a bearish signal as long as there is no significant decrease.
In practice, the holding volume represents the market sentiment, the difference is accompanied by the movement of the price to a certain extent, the result is gradually clear, the loss or profit side exit trend of the market ends; if the holding volume increases significantly during the market horizontal clearing, then once the price breaks up or down, the subsequent price movement will be very sharp.
The Shenzhen 300 index futures market has only been open for more than two months, and the significance of the holdings is still relatively limited. However, an example has already demonstrated the role of the holdings analysis. On May 31st-25th, the Shenzhen 300 spot index fluctuated narrowly in the range of 2700-2800 points, where the total stock holdings of the stock index futures ended the previous period of rapid growth, increasing from only 22592 to 24467.
However, on June 28, the holdings grew significantly by 10%, reaching a new high since the listing, and the subsequent narrow volatility pattern of nearly a month was broken. The June 29th issue broke even. The decline in the stock index was dominated by fundamental factors, and the change in the holdings was only used as an auxiliary indicator to judge the price trend, which is better used if combined with the main stock analysis.
Changes in trading volume and holdings affect futures prices, and changes in futures prices also cause changes in trading volume and holdings. Therefore, analyzing changes in all three is conducive to correctly predicting futures price trends.
1, the volume of transactions, the increase in stock, the rise in prices, indicating that new buyers are making a lot of acquisitions, and the price may continue to rise in the near future.
2, the volume of transactions, the volume of holdings decreased, the price increased, indicating that the short sellers have a large number of replenishment balances, the price increased in the short term, but it is likely to fall again soon.
3rd, the volume of transactions increases, the price rises, but the holding decreases, indicating that both short sellers and short buyers are in a large amount of equity, and the price will immediately fall.
4, the volume of deals, the increase in stocks, the decrease in prices, indicating that the short sellers sell a lot of contracts, the price may also fall in the short term, but if the oversold, the price may rise.
5, The volume of transactions, the decrease in the number of holdings, the fall in prices, indicating that a large number of short buyers are eager to break even, and prices will continue to fall in the short term.
6. Increases in trading volume, holdings and price decreases, indicating that short sellers are taking advantage of short seller's market position, which leads to a decrease in prices.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that in general, if the volume of transactions, the volume of holdings and the price are in the same direction, their price trend can continue for a while; if both are reversed with the price, the price trend may reverse. Of course, this also requires further specific analysis in combination with different price formats.