Please note that this article is mainly a study on the impact of market features on trading systems, ATR is only used as a research medium, please support!
The float gives us a real fluctuation scale (I know this started with the float, if someone else has suggested it before, please point it out), so we have a way to predict the market noise range by testing market disordered fluctuations, which is the basis for risk measurement and position sizing design.
In the Bay Area, this measure of risk and position is applicable to all markets, is it?
I'm sure many of you have tested the Holy Grail brought from the other side of the Atlantic by a shark in the historical data of the A-Stock market in mainland China (I didn't do it), and believe that the result is not as magical as the instructions for the Holy Grail say.
So what is the reason for this outcome? Is it that the sea turtles are so much older than we are? Is it that the stock market is different from the futures market? Or is it that China is a Chinese market with Chinese characteristics, and foreigners don't fit in?
Perhaps we should close our eyes and think while the golden glow of the Holy Grail flashes through our eyes.
Let's go back to where we started, in different markets, is the market mechanism the same, is the trading principle universal?
Before I write my thoughts, I hope to see your friends' opinions. Thanks to all the friends who contributed to this post, your comments are the driving force for our progress together!
I hope to see more of my friends' thoughts shine through this post.
1st, the nature of the true fluctuation scale:
I define the essence of the true fluctuation amplitude as: predicting the range of market noise by testing the disordered fluctuations in market trends.
Yes, in my definition, all price patterns are a trend, and can be basically divided into up, down, and horizontal. Since the range of noise in different trend patterns is different and can probably be measured, this is the basis for market entry decision-making, risk measurement, and position control.
2 Definition of disordered fluctuation
I define disorderly fluctuations as price changes that cannot change the trend, and from this point of view disorderly fluctuations do not only appear in horizontal ordering, but also in the middle of obvious uptrends and downtrends, and price changes that cannot change the trend are part of disorderly fluctuations.
3 Applications of the real fluctuation scale:
The true volatility magnitude can be used mainly in three aspects, one is the market entry decision: its basic principle is that small disorderly fluctuations are transformed into large disorderly fluctuations, which necessarily arise from new capital dynamics. The new capital dynamics necessarily bring a change in the trend.
The second is as a measure of risk and position control: the fundamental principle of risk is that random fluctuations within the range of true volatility amplitude are reasonable and high probability, so the stop loss magnitude must exceed the range of this high probability.
The third is the starting point: the principle is the same as the second.
I'm sorry, it's been so long, I've been busy with work lately, I'm not in the mood, I'll make up for it today.
4, the demands on the application environment of the mechanism of true fluctuation magnitude
The magnitude of true volatility is measured by the spatial range of disorderly fluctuations that cannot change market trends, and the application is to find sufficient capital momentum to change and sustain new market trends through the magnitude of anomalous true volatility.
The effectiveness of applying ATRs lies in the continuity of the capital dynamics that drive the abnormal changes in the true volatility. The continuity of the capital dynamics is related both to the size of the market and to the drivers of the capital itself. Therefore, the effectiveness of applying ATRs will vary greatly in different market environments, and the way they are measured and the techniques used will need to be adjusted according to the market characteristics.
5. Application environment classification (which is market classification)
The market can be divided into leveraged and non-leveraged markets (e.g. futures and equities) based on the availability of liquidity without credit leverage; It can also be divided into unidirectional and bidirectional markets (e.g. foreign exchange and A-share markets) according to trading rules. It can also be divided into high liquidity markets and low liquidity markets (e.g. forex and timber futures) based on market size and liquidity. Depending on the market's norms, it can also be divided into mature markets (high infringement cost markets) and immature markets (low infringement cost markets), such as the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. According to the sources of capital driven can be divided into oligopoly driven market and group driven market (Chinese stock market and foreign exchange) Depending on how the capital is driven, it can be divided into oligopolistic market and oligopolistic market (Chinese stock market and Chinese futures). It can also be divided into high-volatility markets and low-volatility markets based on absolute price fluctuations.
So, in these different market conditions, what are the implications for the ATR application, have you guys thought about it carefully?
I'm going to start by listening to your comments, and then I'll write about it next time.
Shupengli, Jun 12, 2006 #3 I'm not sure what you mean. I was confused. I was confused. The following is the answer to the question that opens with Brother S: 1. The three major assumptions of technical analysis are established where the use of technical analysis is profitable. 2. The real waveforms were also mentioned in Weld's book, after the beach precursor. 3. It is novel to link market disorderly fluctuations, true wavelength, market noise and range directly together. 4. The hedge system is based on three assumptions and introduces risk and money management in its application, which can be used as an introductory textbook for experiential trading systems. Its relationship to market profitability is similar to that of martial arts and battlefield combat. S brother in the private tent operation is easy to drive, you must know what to say, what to say.
How Can You Believe in God? Shupengli Shupengli TO: Mystery brother
Thanks for the reply from Mr. Mystic:
In my opinion, the shark itself has a perfect trading structure, which should be a more perfect trading system in his time and specific trading market.
Of course, in this article, I'm going to put the true bandwidth technique relatively isolated (not completely isolated, and not completely isolated, the trading system itself is very tightly integrated) in different markets to discuss where the market mechanisms are that cause it to be used in different markets in a much different way.
At the same time, the use of true bandwidth as a measure of risk and position size has considerable implications and applications in today's Western trading system. The behavior of the application is reflected in the market, so understanding the market mechanism of true bandwidth is key to using its design as a trading system.
Shupengli, Jun 12, 2006 # 5 This is a very good article. Uncluttered Uncluttered I also recognized the term from the shell system, I have used this real fluctuation scale before when I wrote the stock formula, and later on people used it, although the practical use is different. There is also an Aida insight indicator (operating career is not in a dream), when I wrote it I found it useful to observe trends and dynamics, the result is that people have already done it, oh, some east-east research on market price fluctuations to a certain depth, or even the same way, I hope I have several east-east others have not found out yet: lol:
I'm not going to lie to you. Shupengli Shupengli to: uncle
I think the real genius in this market is the one who can find the rules that nobody has discovered to make money:)
I personally think that in a trading system, true waves have a slightly more meaning for measuring and controlling risk and position sizes than they do for analytical decision making.
Shupengli, Jun 12, 2006 #7 This is my first post. Amkr 1015 Amkr 1015 Re: amkr1015 brother, good for you
Shupengli said: Amkr1015 Brother, I too am just learning about beaches, I have some rough ideas after being confused, not yet mature, so I hope that before I speak, everyone will first speak their thoughts, to avoid being led to the fork by my thoughts.
Amkr1015 Brother, please say what you think first. I just got back to my computer, I'm late, sorry.
I just started reading the article about the shark yesterday, and the first impression I got was very complex, I can't see what his market thinking is, but he seems to have a lot of patience.
The other thing I'm considering is the volatility problem that leaves the differences you're discussing far away, not in terms of merits or demerits, but in terms of nature.
It's a real genius, and it's very great. Maybe we already have heroes like that.
Amkr1015, Jun 12, 2006 #8 This is my first post. I was confused. I was confused. Re: TO: Myth and myth
Shupengli said: ...and then I'm comparing the true bandwidth of this technology (not completely, not even completely, the trading system itself is very tightly integrated) in different markets to discuss where the market mechanisms are that have led to the greater variation in its application in different markets... It's really not easy to see such long sentences in a post. S Brother Gao, real Gao! Ask a question and get to the bottom of it. Einstein said that raising a problem is more important than solving it, and he was, and he is a great man. Why is it that different markets have very different hypotheses about how to construct the same true wavelength concept? The following is considered a matching problem: the actual wavelength is different but the matching is the same thing and the same ratio. S-Brother mentioned 100 more such questions, and the seagulls can be used not only for demonstration but also for real combat. S brother please don't stop, keep thinking and write wherever you can.
I've been thinking about this for years. Gzpony Gzpony The last time I saw blackhorse, the discussion mentioned the beach trading method. blackhorse said that the entry price of this method is too low, but the position adjustment is very inspiring.
The current market may not be as prominent as when the first prototype was tested, and if many breakthroughs are made, the original prototype will lose its glow.
I am interested in what Brother A calls his own short-line system, which is applicable to any time frame and can trade 30 times a day.
Gzpony, Jun 12, 2006 #10 This is my first post. Uncluttered Uncluttered I think it is unscientific to allocate positions with true volatility, and the system of online trading is supposed to be a mid-line system, which he uses mainly to avoid net ups and downs. But when the trend moves dramatically, he also loses the opportunity to weigh in on the right position, which is contrary to the idea that the top traders who weigh in on the right position get a profit. So I don't think that the system of seagulls circulating online is the one that Dennis actually operates, and I'm pretty sure of that.
I'm not sure what you mean. I was confused. I was confused. Re: TO: Myth and myth
shupengli said:
The use of true bandwidth as a measure of risk and position size has considerable influence and application in today's Western trading system. The behavior of the application is reflected in the market, so understanding the market mechanism of true bandwidth is key to using its design as a trading system. S-brother is digging very deep for the real wavelength, hunting wide-ranging. Can you give us a brief introduction to the current Western seacoast, and see how the real waves are being stretched and how we are getting to the bottom of the seacoast? It is also used in the trading system, which is based on the concept of a trading system that can be used for trading.
I've been thinking about this for years. Uncluttered Uncluttered gzpony said: The last time I saw blackhorse, the discussion mentioned the beach trading method. blackhorse said that the entry price of this method is too low, but the position adjustment is very inspiring.
The current market may not be as prominent as when the first prototype was tested, and if many breakthroughs are made, the original prototype will lose its glow.
I am interested in what Brother A calls his own short-line system, which is applicable to any time frame and can trade 30 times a day. Well, there are some things that the know-it-all doesn't know. Short-line systems are a few, but market trading experience and matching trading rules are not written out of thin air.
I'm not sure what to do. I was confused. I was confused. I'm not going to lie. I think it is unscientific to allocate positions with true volatility, and the system of online trading is supposed to be a mid-line system, which he uses mainly to avoid net ups and downs. But when the trend moves dramatically, he also loses the opportunity to weigh in on the right position, which is contrary to the idea that the top traders who weigh in on the right position get a profit. So I don't think that the system of seagulls circulating online is the one that Dennis actually operates, and I'm pretty sure of that. The beach has a storage mechanism. I'm just saying that it's not the kind of adjective that's expressed in a non-fraternal way.
I've been thinking about this for years. Uncluttered Uncluttered Mystery said: The beach has a storage mechanism. I'm just saying that it's not the kind of adjective that's expressed in a non-fraternal way. The only thing I know is that it seems that the way Dennis did it back then was not a mechanical trading system, it was just a way of operating a fund.
I'm not sure what you mean. I was confused. I was confused. I'm not going to lie. Dennis's first move was not to operate a mechanical trading system, but a method used to operate a fund. Can you tell us about the origin of the Danang Dam's fame? Think about why the Dutch striker finally returned to mechanical trading and system trading.
I've been thinking about this for a while. Uncluttered Uncluttered How does Dennis operate:
Follow the trend Technical analysis Anti-market psychology Risk management
In 1978, Dennis's trading performance was poor and he went through a period of adjustment; he summarized two reasons: 1. Failure to provide reliable trends has led to the emergence of false breakouts, as most markets were in a transverse state during the year; 2. He leaves the trading pool and instead writes remote trading in his office, losing the advantage of having access to various information and first-hand information. Remote trading in the field, which can simultaneously buy and sell a variety of commodities as well as foreign exchange and interest rate futures, seems to be a wise choice in the long run. He gradually adjusted his trading strategy accordingly to changes in the environment and conditions.
From these depictions, it is clear that the Danes of the time would not have used the now-famous beach trading system (even if it was a real beach trading system).
I'm not going to lie to you. Uncluttered Uncluttered Also: mechanical trading systems should be considered a category of systemic trading, and Dennis was a faithful executor of systemic trading even before he invented the shark trading system.
I'm not sure what to do. I was confused. I was confused. I'm not going to lie. How does Dennis operate:
Follow the trend Technical analysis Anti-market psychology Risk management
In 1978, Dennis's trading performance was poor and he went through a period of adjustment; he summarized two reasons: 1. Failure to provide reliable trends has led to the emergence of false breakouts, as most markets were in a transverse state during the year; 2. He leaves the trading pool and instead writes remote trading in his office, losing the advantage of having access to various information and first-hand information. Remote trading in the field, which can simultaneously buy and sell a variety of commodities as well as foreign exchange and interest rate futures, seems to be a wise choice in the long run. He gradually adjusted his trading strategy accordingly to changes in the environment and conditions.
From these depictions, it is clear that the Danes of the time would not have used the now-famous beach trading system (even if it was a real beach trading system). Click to expand... The beach was used as a teaching tool by Dan Da-won, and he didn't say that's all he ever lived for.
I've been thinking about this for years. Unsecured Unsecured Note that the previous Dennis was a short-line trader, and the shark trading system should have evolved 80 years later, when they placed a Wall Street Journal ad for shark recruitment in late 1983 and early 1984.
The characteristics of Dennis's dealings in that year are clearer: Following the trend. It is very dangerous to think that a price is a high and a low price zone, and to think that it is too high, too low, too low, too low, too high. Richard Dennis believes that the only way to judge is in the direction the market may go, but how far it will go in a certain direction is up to the market. Richard Dennis occasionally tries to break the bottom or the top. Technical analysis. Richard Dennis analyzes the market mainly on the basis of technical analysis and, based on his many years of experience in following the trends in the market, he and his partner, mathematician William Eckhardt, designed a set of computer programs for automated trading systems, but when the computer programs for automated trading systems clashed with his own inspiration to enter the market, he chose to temporarily leave the market and not buy or sell. Anti-market psychology. Don't agree with most people, because most people lose money in the futures market. The futures market has a psychological indicator of the bull market. If 80% of traders see too much, it means that the head is not far away, the market will fall; 80% of traders look down, it means the bottom is not far away, the market will fall. Risk control. Richard Dennis learned risk control from the first time he made a mistake and lost a third of his money. Generally speaking, a good trade will be profitable soon after entering, if a single trade is lost after a week or two, 18-9 is the wrong direction. Even if you come back and draw, but after so long you may still have the worst intentions after entering the wrong order, what you think is impossible will often happen.