Discover trends and follow trends

Author: The Little Dream, Created: 2017-02-28 09:21:30, Updated:

Discover trends and follow trends


  • 1.对所有进入这个市场的人来说,没有一个人是带着亏钱的目的而来的。但是百分之九十的人都带着亏损离去,甚至于爆仓而去。成为一个期货交易的高手,真的那么难吗?期市之道,真的有如蜀道难,难于上青天吗?在期货上的成与败,与一个人的学历高低、智商高低、勤奋程度、本金多少都无关,与之相关的是一个人的悟性,以及执行力。

    If you have enough insight, your distance from a futures expert is actually a turning distance. If one word is necessary to describe the authenticity of futures, I would like to say one sentence: futures are the art of flowing with the waves. You see trends, follow trends.

    I have two friends in my life: a friend of mine, a friend of mine, a friend of mine, a friend of mine, a friend of a friend of a friend, a friend of a friend, a friend of a friend, a friend of a friend, a friend of a friend, a friend of a friend, a friend of a friend.

    One of my friends from Shanghai, who is a daily trader and has been making steady profits for a decade, thinks it's easy to make a living from futures, and it is. His trading system is so simple I didn't believe it at first, but the simpler the system, the more reliable it is.

    The other is a stock and gold deferred trader, whose channel analysis methodology figured out how to get God into the speculative market after 15 years of groping, and his calm tolerance of the speculative market has made the market a very friendly place for him.

    I have learned a lot of valuable things from these two friends in my life. My biggest influence was Zhang Gu, a teacher I never met, who is the number one and second best in the country in forex trading and the author of Lever Overlay.

  • 2.发现趋势,跟随趋势。第一步,就是如何准确的发现趋势。

    First of all, what is a trend? The price fluctuations, either forming a trend or forming a range. This forms the so-called trend market and the whole market. In a trend market, a trend is an unstoppable impulse.

    People from different walks of life have different approaches to trend capture: beginners don't understand trends; old-timers like to predict trends; seasoned people just follow trends.

    From a time period perspective: medium long line operation, the trend of the circumference line represents the big trend in the medium long term, it is not left or right, but is determined by the fundamentals. If you do not understand the fundamentals of the dollar index, crude oil and copper, do not do the long line operation. The day line can see short-term trends from a week to a month; understand it, you can become a master of the night.

  • 3.期货就是浓缩的人生。对一些人来说,所有的爱与恨、成与败、欢喜与忧愁都源于此。但对成功的人来说,期货是一项快乐的工作。期市也是一个对自己友善的场所。

    Moonlines and seasons, of course, can see higher-level trends, but for the average person, this time frame is too large and does not have much reference for their own operations. Large trends above the moonline should be the big trends that big money manipulators like Goldman, Morgan and others need to consider. Look at the medium-long-term trends, the circumference of the line.

    All trends are based on a certain time frame. Talking about trends outside of a specific time frame is like talking about the loft of an air-conditioned building.

    The so-called trend is what the market wants in the seven words of the Chaos Theory. The so-called trend is what the market does not want in the eight words of the Chaos Theory.

  • 4.在我所依赖的交易系统要素来看,技术分析的核心在于两个方面:第一:各个时间周期的趋势共振;第二:背离和突破。理解了共振、背离和突破这六个字,就理解了技术分析的精髓。

    Some people are blind to the forest, he complies with the trend of the big cycle to enter the market, but falls into the trend of the small cycle. No time resonance, it is not a success. Some people are like a number of family jewels, but do not understand the top of the top of the top of the top of the top of the top of the top of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the bottom.

    It is best to be on your own. Some people like to trade with seconds and minutes as time benchmarks; some people like to trade in day trading with minute and hour lines as time benchmarks; some people like to trade overnight, but the lottery lasts less than a week; some people are good at fundamental analysis, trading no more than three times a year. Everyone has their own clock that suits them.

    All large-scale reversals, deviations, must exist. But deviation itself does not mean that the reversal is inevitable. The deviation represents only the weakening of the original trend, not the transition. But deviation, if the trend breakout is verified at the same time, is a winning and losing trading opportunity.

    If it's not my subjective presumption, you belong to the fundamental analysts. I'm a technical analyst, or I'm a fundamental technical analyst. Or the phrase, "It's best to fit in, and it's the best way to stay profitable".

    There are three treasures of speculative trading: good mentality, good eyesight, good technology. To become a top ten master, you must have at least two of these treasures. Mentality represents the power to keep yourself calm; eyes represent the power to think, analyze and discern trends in macroeconomics and fundamentals; technology represents the power to calculate, the ability to judge the time and price space of specific varieties.

    A person with determination, thinking ability, and calculation is a good person.

  • 5.看对做错,是常有的事。在大级别的趋势中看对趋势入场,在小级别的波动中定力不够被迫止损出局。这关乎心态和眼光。我兄弟跟我说过一句话,现在还振聋发聩:大的行情和趋势人人都看得懂,但能否做对完全是另外一回事。人性使然。非超人概莫能外。这里说的超人,就是高人。

    After reaching a certain level, technology is only a tool, and mental experience is the direction.

    Futures are a shrinking life, amplifying human greed and fear tenfold and a hundredfold. In this speculative market, where most people are doomed to lose money, no reliable trading system works, but execution of the trading system itself is more important.

    The person who succeeds in the speculative market must have his own unique success. The person who fails in the speculative market does not need any reason. The human nature is clear. The good and the bad, in fact, are only a turning distance.

    The core of futures trading is that you have a few points to win when you start. Futures trading is a game of probability. Even before you enter a high-winnings trade, you must have a stop-loss protection against possible misjudgments. What is the reason for a high-winnings trade?

    For each trade itself, the difference between over and under is not in the price, but in the belief. The same price, someone sees more, someone sees more, over and under, is always in balance. The key to profitability is the trend of which time cycle you are following and whether you are in the same direction as the trend. The source of the loss is no more than three situations: [1] in the same entry and exit trade, the trend fluctuations of different time cycles are confused.

  • 6.《道氏理论》是所有技术分析的源头,他提供的更多的是哲学层面的指导,而不是技术分析的本身。很多人看得懂,但是参悟不透。我也是一知半解。但是他的大气度、大胸怀和大视野,却让我的人生境界上了一个层次。打个比方,一个有魄力的女人,让男人心动的不是她的胸脯,而是她的胸怀。

    If there is a technology that is 100% successful, I think it is God, not man. Futures trading is just a game of probability. Turning a trade into a simple standard move.

    Play a simple analogy, do not empty above the horizontal line, do not do much below the horizontal line. Everyone understands this logic. But most people do not have this patience. Look in the right direction, but in the wrong point of entry, and therefore beaten by the inertia of the trend. For example, screw steel, from 3600 to 5000, many people do at 4200, blowing the stock out, now again back to 3600, 4200 empty holding.

    I'm afraid to mislead you, because I can't take any responsibility for your account losses and gains. These are both very bad varieties, and it's best for newcomers not to ask to touch them. Recent sources, obviously, are empty. But among the empty ones, I think that screw steel is the most. Screw steel, faced with a domestic overcapacity and foreign anti-dumping double pressure, is clearly still in decline in the short term.

    White sugar doesn't keep up with the outside, but also with the basics of the sugar market. What you urgently need to reflect on is not how much this single will make, but the big problem of your trading system. If you can't overcome even the bad habits of copying, you are far more than a turning distance from the good hand.

    I think that the time structure of technical analysis can be handled in the following ways: by circumscribing the range of volatility; by daylighting the trading trend; by minute and minute lines selecting the entry and exit points. If done during the day, it is modified to: by daylighting the range of volatility; by 60 minutes combining 15 minutes to determine the trend; by 5 minutes selecting the entry and exit points.

  • 7.均线会说话;趋势总是在一定的时间框架之内明确无误地显现,只是我们缺少发现。背离并且有趋势突破的验证,就是胜算很高的交易机会。总是在成交量异常放大的时候入场,但要站在强大趋势的一面。

    I think it's also a big mistake. In the uptrend, fall back to the uptrend line, look more. In the upper pressure position, you can flatten but not empty. In the downtrend, rise to the downtrend line, look empty. In the lower support position, you can flatten but not do much.

    The trend always exists objectively within a certain time frame. Search and determine the trend direction, from long cycle to short cycle search. Circular line cannot find the trend, go to dayline search.

    Trends are always objective, just missing out. We can't change trends, but we can spot trends and follow trends.

    In terms of technology itself, it's sometimes better to lose money than to make money.

    The two most deadly factors in a transaction are casual sex and emotionalism.

    How much of a win count is the size of the trend inertia. Choosing a strong trend inertia when entering the game, the win count will increase.

    Futures are the art of fluidity. Fluidity is a passive choice, and we should always be in the direction of the trend; fluidity is an active choice, and we can choose fluidity and strong inertia.

  • 8.先知一步,黄金万两。我以为,预测市场是神仙能做的,跟随市场是凡人可做的。

    The simpler the trading system, the better, the simpler the thing is used to the utmost, is the master. Do the simple thing well a thousand times, so that it becomes a good habit to integrate into the self. Abandon the self, transcend the human, return to nature.

In my technical learning experience, there are a few things that are most valuable:[1] Of all the technical indicators, the bullish is the indicator that is least likely to fool the line, and the RSI is the only indicator that can be built on a trading system on its own. [2] Mutual verification of breakouts and trends, mutual resonance of different time cycles, are the treasures of improving the winning count.

Translated from Chinese


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