Trend EMA Zero-Lag Mengikuti Strategi

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2023-09-20 14:30:03
Tag:

Gambaran umum

Ini adalah strategi trend following yang khas. Ini menggunakan EMA Zero-Lag yang cepat dan lambat untuk menentukan arah tren, dan menggabungkan mekanisme seperti trailing stop, take profit dan pyramiding untuk mengikuti tren.

Logika Strategi

  1. Menghitung EMA Zero-Lag cepat dan lambat menggunakan periode halus yang berbeda.

  2. Sinyal panjang dihasilkan ketika EMA cepat melintasi EMA lambat, dan sinyal pendek ketika EMA cepat melintasi EMA lambat.

  3. Tetapkan garis stop trailing setelah masuk untuk mengikuti harga tertinggi / terendah untuk pengendalian risiko.

  4. Ambil keuntungan ketika harga mencapai persentase tertentu untuk mengambil keuntungan.

  5. Gunakan hitungan terbuka untuk piramida mirip dengan bunga majemuk.

Analisis Keuntungan

  1. EMA Zero-Lag memiliki lebih sedikit keterlambatan dalam menanggapi perubahan tren.

  2. Strategi EMA ganda sederhana dan intuitif untuk penilaian arah.

  3. Stop loss dan mengambil keuntungan pengaturan secara efektif mengendalikan kerugian perdagangan tunggal.

  4. Mekanisme piramida memungkinkan lebih banyak keuntungan ketika tren meluas.

Analisis Risiko

  1. Pengaturan parameter yang tidak benar dapat menyebabkan stop loss/take profit yang terlalu agresif atau terlalu konservatif.

  2. Indikator tren yang salah mungkin melewatkan momen perubahan tren.

  3. Piramida dapat memperkuat total kerugian ketika tren berbalik.

  4. Parameter perlu disetel untuk produk yang berbeda untuk menghindari overfit.

Arah Peningkatan

  1. Uji periode EMA yang berbeda untuk menemukan kombinasi parameter yang lebih baik.

  2. Mengoptimalkan rasio stop/take untuk menyeimbangkan profitabilitas dan pengendalian risiko.

  3. Sesuaikan logika piramida untuk membatasi jumlah terbuka maksimum per arah.

  4. Tambahkan indikator teknis lain untuk filter masuk untuk meningkatkan kualitas sinyal.

  5. Menonaktifkan perdagangan selama jam tertentu untuk menghindari periode yang rentan terhadap sinyal yang salah.

  6. Uji parameter secara terpisah pada produk yang berbeda untuk meningkatkan ketahanan.

Ringkasan

Strategi ini menunjukkan berjalan secara keseluruhan stabil dengan pengembalian yang disesuaikan dengan risiko yang layak. Ini dapat ditingkatkan lebih lanjut melalui optimasi parameter, penyaringan tambahan dll. Juga perlu memperhatikan kesalahan sinyal potensial dalam kondisi pasar tertentu. Secara keseluruhan strategi ini memiliki kerangka kerja yang kuat dan menunjukkan potensi untuk menjadi tren menguntungkan yang stabil mengikuti strategi setelah penyempurnaan berkelanjutan.


//@version=3
// Learn more about Autoview and how you can automate strategies like this one here: https://autoview.with.pink/
strategy("MP ZeroLag EMA", "MP 0 Strat", overlay=true, pyramiding=0, initial_capital=100000, currency=currency.USD, default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.1)
 
//bgcolor ( color=black, transp=40, title='Blackground', editable=true)
 
///////////////////////////////////////////////
//* Backtesting Period Selector | Component *//
///////////////////////////////////////////////
 
testStartYear = input(2018, "Backtest Start Year")
testStartMonth = input(3, "Backtest Start Month")
testStartDay = input(1, "Backtest Start Day")
testPeriodStart = timestamp(testStartYear,testStartMonth,testStartDay,00,00)
 
testStopYear = input(77777777, "Backtest Stop Year")
testStopMonth = input(11, "Backtest Stop Month")
testStopDay = input(15, "Backtest Stop Day")
testPeriodStop = timestamp(testStopYear,testStopMonth,testStopDay,0,0)
 
testPeriod() => true
 
/////////////////////////////////////
//* Put your strategy logic below *//
/////////////////////////////////////
 
// === INPUTS ===
zlmaSource      = input(defval = close, title = "ZeroLag EMA Source")
zlmaFastLength  = input(defval = 8, title = "ZeroLag EMA Fast Length")
zlmaSlowLength  = input(defval = 21, title = "ZeroLag EMA Slow Length")

// === /INPUTS ===
 
// === SERIES SETUP ===
// Fast ZeroLag EMA
zema1=ema(zlmaSource, zlmaFastLength)
zema2=ema(zema1, zlmaFastLength)
c1=zema1-zema2
zlemaFast=zema1+c1
 
// Slow ZeroLag EMA
zema3=ema(zlmaSource, zlmaSlowLength)
zema4=ema(zema3, zlmaSlowLength)
c2=zema3-zema4
zlemaSlow=zema3+c2
 
// Plots and Conditions
plot(zlemaFast, title='Fast ZeroLag EMA', color = yellow, linewidth=4)
plot(zlemaSlow, title='Slow ZeroLag EMA', color = fuchsia, linewidth=4)

 
// Long/Short Logic
longLogic = crossover(zlemaFast,zlemaSlow) ? 1 : 0
shortLogic = crossunder(zlemaFast,zlemaSlow) ? 1 : 0
 
//////////////////////////
//* Strategy Component *//
//////////////////////////
 
isLong = input(false, "Longs Only")
isShort = input(false, "Shorts Only")
isFlip = input(false, "Flip the Opens")
 
long = longLogic
short = shortLogic
 
if isFlip
    long := shortLogic
    short := longLogic
else
    long := longLogic
    short := shortLogic
 
if isLong
    long := long
    short := na
 
if isShort
    long := na
    short := short
   
////////////////////////////////
//======[ Signal Count ]======//
////////////////////////////////
 
sectionLongs = 0
sectionLongs := nz(sectionLongs[1])
sectionShorts = 0
sectionShorts := nz(sectionShorts[1])
 
if long
    sectionLongs := sectionLongs + 1
    sectionShorts := 0
 
if short
    sectionLongs := 0
    sectionShorts := sectionShorts + 1
 
//////////////////////////////
//======[ Pyramiding ]======//
//////////////////////////////
 
pyrl = input(1, "Pyramiding less than") // If your count is less than this number
pyre = input(0, "Pyramiding equal to") // If your count is equal to this number
pyrg = input(1000000, "Pyramiding greater than") // If your count is greater than this number
 
longCondition = long and sectionLongs <= pyrl or long and sectionLongs >= pyrg or long and sectionLongs == pyre ? 1 : 0
shortCondition = short and sectionShorts <= pyrl or short and sectionShorts >= pyrg or short and sectionShorts == pyre ? 1 : 0
 
////////////////////////////////
//======[ Entry Prices ]======//
////////////////////////////////
 
last_open_longCondition = na
last_open_shortCondition = na
last_open_longCondition := longCondition ? close : nz(last_open_longCondition[1])
last_open_shortCondition := shortCondition ? close : nz(last_open_shortCondition[1])
 
////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Open Order Count ]======//
////////////////////////////////////
 
sectionLongConditions = 0
sectionLongConditions := nz(sectionLongConditions[1])
sectionShortConditions = 0
sectionShortConditions := nz(sectionShortConditions[1])
 
if longCondition
    sectionLongConditions := sectionLongConditions + 1
    sectionShortConditions := 0
 
if shortCondition
    sectionLongConditions := 0
    sectionShortConditions := sectionShortConditions + 1
   
///////////////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Position Check (long/short) ]======//
///////////////////////////////////////////////
 
last_longCondition = na
last_shortCondition = na
last_longCondition := longCondition ? time : nz(last_longCondition[1])
last_shortCondition := shortCondition ? time : nz(last_shortCondition[1])
 
in_longCondition = last_longCondition > last_shortCondition
in_shortCondition = last_shortCondition > last_longCondition
 
/////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Position Averages ]======//
/////////////////////////////////////
 
totalLongs = 0.0
totalLongs := nz(totalLongs[1])
totalShorts = 0.0
totalShorts := nz(totalShorts[1])
averageLongs = 0.0
averageLongs := nz(averageLongs[1])
averageShorts = 0.0
averageShorts := nz(averageShorts[1])
 
if longCondition
    totalLongs := totalLongs + last_open_longCondition
    totalShorts := 0.0
 
if shortCondition
    totalLongs := 0.0
    totalShorts := totalShorts + last_open_shortCondition
 
averageLongs := totalLongs / sectionLongConditions
averageShorts := totalShorts / sectionShortConditions
 
/////////////////////////////////
//======[ Trailing Stop ]======//
/////////////////////////////////
 
isTS = input(false, "Trailing Stop")
tsi = input(1300, "Activate Trailing Stop Price (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100
ts = input(400, "Trailing Stop (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100
 
last_high = na
last_low = na
last_high_short = na
last_low_short = na
last_high := not in_longCondition ? na : in_longCondition and (na(last_high[1]) or high > nz(last_high[1])) ? high : nz(last_high[1])
last_high_short := not in_shortCondition ? na : in_shortCondition and (na(last_high[1]) or high > nz(last_high[1])) ? high : nz(last_high[1])
last_low := not in_shortCondition ? na : in_shortCondition and (na(last_low[1]) or low < nz(last_low[1])) ? low : nz(last_low[1])
last_low_short := not in_longCondition ? na : in_longCondition and (na(last_low[1]) or low < nz(last_low[1])) ? low : nz(last_low[1])
 
long_ts = isTS and not na(last_high) and low <= last_high - last_high / 100 * ts and longCondition == 0 and last_high >= averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tsi
short_ts = isTS and not na(last_low) and high >= last_low + last_low / 100 * ts and shortCondition == 0 and last_low <= averageShorts - averageShorts/ 100 * tsi
 
///////////////////////////////
//======[ Take Profit ]======//
///////////////////////////////
 
isTP = input(true, "Take Profit")
tp = input(300, "Take Profit (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100
long_tp = isTP and close > averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tp and not longCondition
short_tp = isTP and close < averageShorts - averageShorts / 100 * tp and not shortCondition
 
/////////////////////////////
//======[ Stop Loss ]======//
/////////////////////////////
 
isSL = input(false, "Stop Loss")
sl = input(750, "Stop Loss (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100
long_sl = isSL and close < averageLongs - averageLongs / 100 * sl and longCondition == 0
short_sl = isSL and close > averageShorts + averageShorts / 100 * sl and shortCondition == 0
 
/////////////////////////////////
//======[ Close Signals ]======//
/////////////////////////////////
 
longClose = long_tp or long_sl or long_ts  ? 1 : 0
shortClose = short_tp or short_sl or short_ts ? 1: 0
 
///////////////////////////////
//======[ Plot Colors ]======//
///////////////////////////////
 
longCloseCol = na
shortCloseCol = na
longCloseCol := long_tp ? purple : long_sl ? maroon : long_ts ? blue : longCloseCol[1]
shortCloseCol := short_tp ? purple : short_sl ? maroon : short_ts ? blue : shortCloseCol[1]
tpColor = isTP and in_longCondition ? purple : isTP and in_shortCondition ? purple : white
slColor = isSL and in_longCondition ? red : isSL and in_shortCondition ? red : white
 
//////////////////////////////////
//======[ Strategy Plots ]======//
//////////////////////////////////
 
plot(isTS and in_longCondition ? averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tsi : na, "Long Trailing Activate", blue, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isTS and in_longCondition and last_high >= averageLongs +  averageLongs / 100 * tsi ? last_high - last_high / 100 * ts : na, "Long Trailing", fuchsia, style=2, linewidth=3)
plot(isTS and in_shortCondition ? averageShorts - averageShorts/ 100 * tsi : na, "Short Trailing Activate", blue, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isTS and in_shortCondition and last_low <= averageShorts - averageShorts/ 100 * tsi ? last_low + last_low / 100 * ts : na, "Short Trailing", fuchsia, style=2, linewidth=3)
plot(isTP and in_longCondition and last_high < averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tp ? averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tp : na, "Long TP", tpColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isTP and in_shortCondition and last_low > averageShorts - averageShorts / 100 * tp ? averageShorts - averageShorts / 100 * tp : na, "Short TP", tpColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isSL and in_longCondition and last_low_short > averageLongs - averageLongs / 100 * sl ? averageLongs - averageLongs / 100 * sl : na, "Long SL", slColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isSL and in_shortCondition and last_high_short < averageShorts + averageShorts / 100 * sl ? averageShorts + averageShorts / 100 * sl : na, "Short SL", slColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
 
///////////////////////////////
//======[ Alert Plots ]======//
///////////////////////////////
 
// Old Signal Plots
//plot(longCondition, "Long", green)
//plot(shortCondition, "Short", red)
//plot(longClose, "Long Close", longCloseCol)
//plot(shortClose, "Short Close", shortCloseCol)
 
 
// New Signal Plots
//plotshape(series=longCondition, title="Long", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=green, size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(series=shortCondition, title="Short", style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar, color=red, size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(series=longClose, title="Long Close", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=blue, size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(series=shortClose, title="Short Close", style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar, color=purple, size=size.tiny)
 
//alertcondition(condition=longCondition, title="Long", message="")
//alertcondition(condition=shortCondition, title="Short", message="")
//alertcondition(condition=longClose, title="Long Close", message="")
//alertcondition(condition=shortClose, title="Short Close", message="")
 
///////////////////////////////////
//======[ Reset Variables ]======//
///////////////////////////////////
 
if longClose or not in_longCondition
    averageLongs := 0
    totalLongs := 0.0
    sectionLongs := 0
    sectionLongConditions := 0
 
if shortClose or not in_shortCondition
    averageShorts := 0
    totalShorts := 0.0
    sectionShorts := 0
    sectionShortConditions := 0
 
////////////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Strategy Entry and Exits ]======//
////////////////////////////////////////////
 
if testPeriod()
    strategy.entry("Long", 1, when=longCondition)
    strategy.entry("Short", 0,  when=shortCondition)
    strategy.close("Long", when=longClose)
    strategy.close("Short", when=shortClose)
    
    
//////NEW STUFF

//temainput  = input(24, minval=1, title="Fast TEMA")
//hullinput = input(39, minval=1, title="Slow hullMA")
//rmainput = input(48, minval=1, title="RMA (BB Signal)")
//bblength = input(20, minval=1, title="BB Length")
//mult = input(1.5, minval=0.001, maxval=50, title="BB stdev Mult")
//src = input(defval=close, type=source, title="Source")

//Moving Average Params

//hullMA
//hullma = wma(2*wma(close, hullinput/2)-wma(close, hullinput), round(sqrt(hullinput)))

//TEMA
//ema = ema(close, temainput)
//ema1 = ema(ema, temainput)
//ema2 = ema(ema1, temainput)
//tema = 3 * (ema - ema1) + ema2

//RMA
//rma = ema(close, 96)

//BB
//basis = sma(tema, bblength)
//dev = mult * stdev(tema, bblength)
//upper = basis + dev
//lower = basis - dev

//Color Swaps
//ribbon = tema>=hullma ? #c0fff4 : #ffbcc8
//bandcolor = rma>=basis ? #ffbcc8 : #c0fff4


//Plots
//plot(basis, title="Bollinger Band Basis", color=red, transp=0)
//upband = plot(upper, color=#ffbcc8, transp=100, editable=false)
//downband = plot(lower, color=#ffbcc8, transp=100, editable=false)

//Fills
//temap = plot(tema, title="TEMA", color=white, transp=100, editable=false)
//emap = plot(hullma, title="EMA", color=white, transp=100, editable=false)
//fill (temap, emap, color=ribbon, title="MA Ribbon", transp=50)
//fill(upband, downband, title="Bollinger Band Background", color=bandcolor)

///////END NEW

///--------New, DW Art----------

//Period
per = input(defval=34, title="Lookback Period")

//Current Resolution
res = input(defval=30, title="Resolution")

//Deviations
ndev = input(defval=7, minval=0, maxval=7, title="Number of Fibonacci Volatility Deviations")

//----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//Definitions
//----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

//Source
src  = close
dsrc = high - low

//Periods Per Annum
ppa = (1440/res)*365

//Periodic Volatility
Si = log(close/close[1])
Sm = avg(Si, per)
pv = (sqrt((sum(pow((Si - Sm), 2), per))/(per*ppa)))

//Price Geometric Moving Averages
lmean = log(src)
smean = sum(lmean,per)
gma   = exp(smean/per)
lmeand = log(dsrc)
smeand = sum(lmeand,per)
gmad   = exp(smeand/per)

//Deviations
dev  = gmad*pv
ud1  = gma + dev
dd1  = gma - dev
ud2  = gma + dev*2
dd2  = gma - dev*2
ud3  = gma + dev*3
dd3  = gma - dev*3
ud5  = gma + dev*5
dd5  = gma - dev*5
ud8  = gma + dev*8
dd8  = gma - dev*8
ud13 = gma + dev*13
dd13 = gma - dev*13
ud21 = gma + dev*21
dd21 = gma - dev*21
u1  = (ndev==1) or (ndev==2) or (ndev==3) or (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? ud1 : na
d1  = (ndev==1) or (ndev==2) or (ndev==3) or (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? dd1 : na
u2  = (ndev==2) or (ndev==3) or (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? ud2 : na
d2  = (ndev==2) or (ndev==3) or (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? dd2 : na
u3  = (ndev==3) or (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? ud3 : na
d3  = (ndev==3) or (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? dd3 : na
u5  = (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? ud5 : na
d5  = (ndev==4) or (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? dd5 : na
u8  = (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? ud8 : na
d8  = (ndev==5) or (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? dd8 : na
u13 = (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? ud13 : na
d13 = (ndev==6) or (ndev==7) ? dd13 : na
u21 = (ndev==7) ? ud21 : na
d21 = (ndev==7) ? dd21 : na

//----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//Plots
//----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

//GMA
gp = plot(gma, color=black, title="GMA")

//Deviations
u21p = plot(u21, color=lime, title="Upper Deviation x 21", transp=100)
u13p = plot(u13, color=lime, title="Upper Deviation x 13", transp=100)
u8p  = plot(u8,  color=lime, title="Upper Deviation x 8",  transp=100)
u5p  = plot(u5,  color=lime, title="Upper Deviation x 5",  transp=100)
u3p  = plot(u3,  color=lime, title="Upper Deviation x 3",  transp=100)
u2p  = plot(u2,  color=lime, title="Upper Deviation x 2",  transp=100)
u1p  = plot(u1,  color=lime, title="Uper Deviation",       transp=100)
d1p  = plot(d1,  color=red,  title="Lower Deviation",      transp=100)
d2p  = plot(d2,  color=red,  title="Lower Deviation x 2",  transp=100)
d3p  = plot(d3,  color=red,  title="Lower Deviation x 3",  transp=100)
d5p  = plot(d5,  color=red,  title="Lower Deviation x 5",  transp=100)
d8p  = plot(d8,  color=red,  title="Lower Deviation x 8",  transp=100)
d13p = plot(d13, color=red,  title="Lower Deviation x 13", transp=100)
d21p = plot(d21, color=red,  title="Lower Deviation x 21", transp=100)

//Fills
fill(u21p, gp, color=silver, transp=90)
fill(u13p, gp, color=silver, transp=90)
fill(u8p, gp,  color=silver, transp=90)
fill(u5p, gp,  color=silver, transp=90)
fill(u3p, gp,  color=silver, transp=90)
fill(u2p, gp,  color=silver, transp=90)
fill(u1p, gp,  color=silver, transp=90)
fill(d1p, gp,  color=silver,  transp=90)
fill(d2p, gp,  color=silver,  transp=90)
fill(d3p, gp,  color=silver,  transp=90)
fill(d5p, gp,  color=silver,  transp=90)
fill(d8p, gp,  color=silver,  transp=90)
fill(d13p, gp, color=silver,  transp=90)
fill(d21p, gp, color=silver,  transp=90)
    

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