Estrategia de negociación de impulso promedio móvil de varios plazos

El autor:¿ Qué pasa?, Fecha: 2023-11-06 16:04:46
Las etiquetas:

Resumen general

Esta estrategia de negociación combina múltiples promedios móviles e indicadores de impulso para identificar la dirección y la fuerza de las tendencias, establecer posiciones temprano en las tendencias emergentes, y luego optimizar la gestión de ganancias y riesgos mediante el uso de trailing stops y take profits.

Estrategia lógica

Se construyen dos conjuntos de medias móviles con diferentes parámetros para crear líneas rápidas y lentas:
- La línea rápida consiste en una EMA de 5 períodos y una WMA de 25 períodos, que representan la tendencia a corto plazo.
- La línea lenta consiste en una EMA de 28 períodos y una WMA de 72 períodos, que representan una tendencia a medio y largo plazo.
Cuando la línea rápida cruza por encima de la línea lenta, indica que la tendencia a corto plazo está ganando fuerza sobre la tendencia a mediano plazo, y presenta una señal de entrada.
Se ha incorporado un filtro RSI, que solo toma entradas en los mínimos del RSI (para el largo) y los máximos del RSI (para el corto) para evitar fallas.
Una vez ingresado, el trailing stop se usa para minimizar las pérdidas, mientras que el take profit bloquea las ganancias.
Cuando la línea rápida cruza por debajo de la línea lenta, señala la reversión de la tendencia, lo que provoca la salida a través de stop loss o take profit.

Análisis de ventajas

Las combinaciones de medias móviles dobles filtran el ruido e identifican la dirección y la fuerza de la tendencia durante la progresión de la tendencia.
Las entradas establecidas temprano en las tendencias emergentes evitan pérdidas innecesarias por fallas.
El filtro RSI mejora la calidad de las entradas.
El trailing stop comprime las pérdidas de operaciones individuales perdedoras.
Tener ganancias permite capturar ganancias considerables durante movimientos favorables.

Análisis de riesgos

Las medias móviles dobles pueden retrasarse en los puntos de inflexión, perdiendo oportunidades de reversión.
- Acortar los períodos de media móvil para una mayor sensibilidad.
Las fugas falsas conducen a entradas innecesarias.
- Incorpore más filtros antes de entrar.
Las distancias de stop loss/take profit no están optimizadas, pueden ser demasiado anchas o demasiado estrechas.
- Optimizar mediante backtest para encontrar los niveles óptimos.
La estrategia direccional sólo funciona para los mercados de tendencia.
- Sólo emplear estrategias basadas en las condiciones del mercado.

Direcciones de optimización

Optimizar los parámetros de la media móvil para encontrar las mejores representaciones de la tendencia.
Añadir filtros de tendencia como parada ATR dinámica, osciladores de momento, etc.
Optimizar los parámetros de stop loss / take profit.
Incorporar filtros de régimen basados en las condiciones del mercado.
Añadir análisis de marcos de tiempo cruzados utilizando marcos de tiempo más altos para guiar la dirección de la estrategia a corto plazo.

Resumen de las actividades

Esta estrategia integra promedios móviles e indicadores de impulso para identificar y establecer entradas tempranas durante las tendencias emergentes, al tiempo que gestiona el riesgo y la recompensa a través de paradas oportunas y obtener ganancias. Aunque se necesita una mayor optimización de parámetros y lógica para adaptarse a las condiciones más amplias del mercado, ya tiene un marco básico y una direccionalidad para capturar tendencias a medio y largo plazo. Con mejoras continuas, esta estrategia puede convertirse en un sistema de seguimiento de tendencias robusto y eficiente.

/*backtest
start: 2023-10-06 00:00:00
end: 2023-11-05 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
strategy(title="[WAI GUA]", shorttitle="[EOS] 1.0", overlay=true)

//study(title="[WAI GUA]", shorttitle="[EOS] 1.0", overlay=true)



//
// Use Alternate Anchor TF for MAs 
uRenko    = input(true, title="IS This a RENKO Chart")
//
anchor     = input(0,minval=0,maxval=1440,title="Alternate TimeFrame Multiplier (0=none)")
//
src          = close //input(close, title="EMA Source")
showRibbons  = input(false,title="Show Coloured MA Ribbons")
showAvgs     = input(false,title="Show Ribbon Median MA Lines")

//
// Fast Ribbon MAs
// Lower MA - type, length
typeF1    = input(defval="EMA", title="FAST MA Ribbon Type: ", options=["SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "VWMA", "SMMA", "DEMA", "TEMA", "LAGMA", "HullMA", "ZEMA", "TMA", "SSMA"])
lenF1     = input(defval=5, title="FAST Ribbon Lower MA Length", minval=1)
gammaF1   = 0.33 //input(defval=0.33,title="Fast MA - Gamma for LAGMA")

// Upper MA - type, length
typeF11   = typeF1 //input(defval="WMA", title="FAST Ribbon Upper MA Type: ", options=["SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "VWMA", "SMMA", "DEMA", "TEMA", "LAGMA", "HullMA", "ZEMA", "TMA", "SSMA"])
lenF11    = input(defval=25, title="FAST Ribbon Upper Length", minval=2)
gammaF11  = 0.77 //input(defval=0.77,title="Slow MA - Gamma for LAGMA")

// Slow Ribbon MAs
// Lower MA - type, length
typeS1   = input(defval="EMA", title="SLOW MA Ribbon Type: ", options=["SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "VWMA", "SMMA", "DEMA", "TEMA", "LAGMA", "HullMA", "ZEMA", "TMA", "SSMA"])
lenS1    = input(defval=28, title="SLOW Ribbon Lower MA Length", minval=1)
gammaS1  = 0.33 //input(defval=0.33,title="Fast MA - Gamma for LAGMA")

// Upper MA - type, length
typeS16   = typeS1 //input(defval="WMA", title="SLOW Ribbon Upper MA Type: ", options=["SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "VWMA", "SMMA", "DEMA", "TEMA", "LAGMA", "HullMA", "ZEMA", "TMA", "SSMA"])
lenS16    = input(defval=72, title="SLOW Ribbon Upper Length", minval=2)
gammaS16  = 0.77 //input(defval=0.77,title="Slow MA - Gamma for LAGMA")

// - Constants
gold = #FFD700

// - FUNCTIONS
// - variant(type, src, len, gamma)
// 返回MA输入选择变量，默认为SMA，如果空白或键入。

// SuperSmoother filter
variant_supersmoother(src,len) =>
    a1 = exp(-1.414*3.14159 / len)
    b1 = 2*a1*cos(1.414*3.14159 / len)
    c2 = b1
    c3 = (-a1)*a1
    c1 = 1 - c2 - c3
    v9 = 0.0
    v9 := c1*(src + nz(src[1])) / 2 + c2*nz(v9[1]) + c3*nz(v9[2])
    v9
    
variant_smoothed(src,len) =>
    v5 = 0.0
    v5 := na(v5[1]) ? sma(src, len) : (v5[1] * (len - 1) + src) / len
    v5

variant_zerolagema(src,len) =>
    ema1 = ema(src, len)
    ema2 = ema(ema1, len)
    v10 = ema1+(ema1-ema2)
    v10
    
variant_doubleema(src,len) =>
    v2 = ema(src, len)
    v6 = 2 * v2 - ema(v2, len)
    v6

variant_tripleema(src,len) =>
    v2 = ema(src, len)
    v7 = 3 * (v2 - ema(v2, len)) + ema(ema(v2, len), len)               // Triple Exponential
    v7
    
//calc Laguerre
variant_lag(p,g) =>
    L0 = 0.0
    L1 = 0.0
    L2 = 0.0
    L3 = 0.0
    L0 := (1 - g)*p+g*nz(L0[1])
    L1 := -g*L0+nz(L0[1])+g*nz(L1[1])
    L2 := -g*L1+nz(L1[1])+g*nz(L2[1])
    L3 := -g*L2+nz(L2[1])+g*nz(L3[1])
    f = (L0 + 2*L1 + 2*L2 + L3)/6
    f

// return variant, defaults to SMA 
variant(type, src, len, g) =>
    type=="EMA"     ? ema(src,len) : 
      type=="WMA"   ? wma(src,len): 
      type=="VWMA"  ? vwma(src,len) : 
      type=="SMMA"  ? variant_smoothed(src,len) : 
      type=="DEMA"  ? variant_doubleema(src,len): 
      type=="TEMA"  ? variant_tripleema(src,len): 
      type=="LAGMA" ? variant_lag(src,g) :
      type=="HullMA"? wma(2 * wma(src, len / 2) - wma(src, len), round(sqrt(len))) :
      type=="SSMA"  ? variant_supersmoother(src,len) : 
      type=="ZEMA"  ? variant_zerolagema(src,len) : 
      type=="TMA"   ? sma(sma(src,len),len) : 
                      sma(src,len)

// - /variant 

// If have anchor specified, calculate the base multiplier.
//mult  = isintraday ? anchor==0 or interval<=0 or interval>=anchor or anchor>1440? 1 : round(anchor/interval) : 1
//mult := isdwm?  1 : mult  // Only available Daily or less
mult = anchor>0 ? anchor : 1 

//
high_  = uRenko? max(close,open) : high
low_   = uRenko? min(close,open) : low


//用锚乘器调整MA长度

//Fast MA Ribbon
emaF1 = variant(typeF1, src, lenF1*mult, gammaF1)
emaF11 = variant(typeF11, src, lenF11*mult,gammaF11)
emafast = (emaF1+emaF11)/2 // Average of Upper and Lower MAs
//
//Slow MA Ribbon
emaS1 = variant(typeS1,src, lenS1*mult,gammaS1)
emaS16 = variant(typeS16, src, lenS16*mult, gammaS16)
emaslow = (emaS1+emaS16)/2 // Average of Upper and Lower MAs
//
// Count crossover candles
xup = 0
xdn = 0
fup = 0
fdn = 0
sup = 0
sdn = 0
// 
xup := (emafast-emaslow)>0 and (emafast-emaslow)>(emafast[1]-emaslow[1]) ? nz(xup[1])+1 : 0
xdn := (emafast-emaslow)<0 and (emafast-emaslow)<(emafast[1]-emaslow[1]) ? nz(xdn[1])+1 : 0
fup := (emaF1-emaF11)>0 and (emaF1-emaF11)>(emaF1[1]-emaF11[1]) ? nz(fup[1])+1 : 0
fdn := (emaF1-emaF11)<0 and (emaF1-emaF11)<(emaF1[1]-emaF11[1]) ? nz(fdn[1])+1 : 0
sup := (emaS1-emaS16)>0 and (emaS1-emaS16)>(emaS1[1]-emaS16[1]) ? nz(sup[1])+1 : 0
sdn := (emaS1-emaS16)<0 and (emaS1-emaS16)<(emaS1[1]-emaS16[1]) ? nz(sdn[1])+1 : 0

//Fast EMA Final Color Rules
colFinal = fup>=2 ? aqua : fdn>=2 ? blue : gray
//Slow EMA Final Color Rules
colFinal2 = sup>=2 ? lime : sdn>=2 ? red : gray

//Fast EMA Plots
p1=plot(showRibbons?emaF1:na, title="Fast Ribbon Lower MA", style=line, linewidth=1, color=colFinal,transp=10)
p2=plot(showRibbons?emaF11:na, title="Fast Ribbon Upper MA", style=line, linewidth=1, color=colFinal,transp=10)
plot(showAvgs?emafast:na, title="Fast Ribbon Avg MA", style=circles,join=true, linewidth=1, color=gold,transp=10)

//
//fill(p1,p2,color=colFinal, transp=90)

//Slow EMA Plots
p3=plot(showRibbons?emaS1:na, title="Slow Ribbon Lower MA", style=line, linewidth=1, color=colFinal2,transp=10)
p4=plot(showRibbons?emaS16:na, title="Slow Ribbon Upper MA", style=line, linewidth=1, color=colFinal2,transp=10)
plot(showAvgs?emaslow:na, title="Slow Ribbon Avg MA", style=circles,join=true, linewidth=1, color=fuchsia,transp=10)
//
//fill(p3,p4, color=colFinal2, transp=90)

// Generate Buy Sell signals, 
buy = 0
sell=0
//
buy  := xup>=2 and sup>=2 and fup>=2 ? nz(buy[1])>0?buy[1]+1  :1 : 0
sell := xdn>=2 and sdn>=2 and fdn>=2 ? nz(sell[1])>0?sell[1]+1 :1 : 0

////////////////////////
//* 反测试周期选择器 *//
////////////////////////

testStartYear = input(2018, "Backtest Start Year",minval=1980)
testStartMonth = input(1, "Backtest Start Month",minval=1,maxval=12)
testStartDay = input(1, "Backtest Start Day",minval=1,maxval=31)
testPeriodStart = timestamp(testStartYear,testStartMonth,testStartDay,0,0)

testStopYear = 9999 //input(9999, "Backtest Stop Year",minval=1980)
testStopMonth = 12 // input(12, "Backtest Stop Month",minval=1,maxval=12)
testStopDay = 31 //input(31, "Backtest Stop Day",minval=1,maxval=31)
testPeriodStop = timestamp(testStopYear,testStopMonth,testStopDay,0,0)

testPeriod() => time >= testPeriodStart and time <= testPeriodStop ? true : false


///////////////
//* RSI策略 *//
///////////////

//指示器 1
lowerpc = lowest(low, 21)
upperpc = highest(high, 21)
midpc = avg(upperpc, lowerpc)

//指示器 2
ma = sma(close, 50)
petd = ema(close,13)
rangema = ema(tr, 50)
upperkc = ma + rangema * 0.25
lowerkc = ma - rangema * 0.25

//指示器 3
up = rma(max(change(close), 0), 5)
down = rma(-min(change(close), 0), 5)
rsi = down == 0 ? 100 : up == 0 ? 0 : 100 - (100 / (1 + up / down))

// PET-D
petdcolor = close > petd ? green : red
barcolor (petdcolor)


//Slope
SlopeL = midpc > midpc[5]
SlopeS = midpc < midpc[5]

//条件
CL = SlopeL == 1 and close > lowerkc and close < midpc and rsi < 35 
CS = SlopeS == 1 and close < upperkc and close > midpc and rsi > 65 

//Setup
RsiSL = CL == 1 and CL[1] != 1
RsiSS = CS == 1 and CS[1] != 1

/////////////////////
//* RSA抛物线指标 *//
/////////////////////
start = input(0.02)
increment = input(0.02)
maximum = input(0.2)

psar = sar(start, increment, maximum)

RSALE = false
RSASE = false
if (psar > high)
    RSALE = true
else
    RSALE = false

if (psar < low)
    RSASE = true
else
    RSASE = false


////////////////
//* 策略组件 *//
////////////////

AQUA = #00FFFFFF
BLUE = #0000FFFF
RED  = #FF0000FF
LIME = #00FF00FF
GRAY = #808080FF
DARKRED   = #8B0000FF
DARKGREEN = #006400FF
//
fastExit  = input(false,title="Use Opposite Trade as a Close Signal")
clrBars   = input(true,title="Colour Candles to Trade Order state")
orderType = input("Longs+Shorts",title="What type of Orders", options=["Longs+Shorts","LongsOnly","ShortsOnly","Flip"])
//
isLong   = (orderType != "ShortsOnly")
isShort  = (orderType != "LongsOnly")

//////////////////////////
//* 贸易状态引擎 *//
//////////////////////////

// 追踪当前贸易状态
longClose = false, longClose := nz(longClose[1],false)
shortClose = false, shortClose := nz(shortClose[1],false)
tradeState = 0, tradeState := nz(tradeState[1])
tradeState := tradeState==0 ?   buy==1 and (barstate.isconfirmed or barstate.ishistory) and isLong and not longClose and not shortClose? 1 :
                               sell==1  and (barstate.isconfirmed or barstate.ishistory) and isShort and not longClose and not shortClose? -1 : 
                          tradeState : tradeState
                          
////////////////////////////////////
//* 在这里设置入口和特殊出口条件 *//
////////////////////////////////////

//进入状态，当状态改变方向时。
longCondition  = false
shortCondition = false
//longCondition  := longCondition != true ? change(tradeState) and tradeState==1 : true
//shortCondition := shortCondition != true ? change(tradeState) and tradeState==-1 : true
longCondition  := change(tradeState) and tradeState==1
shortCondition := change(tradeState) and tradeState==-1
if orderType=="Flip"
    temp = longCondition
    longCondition  := shortCondition
    shortCondition := temp
//end if

// 卖出信号退出
longExitC  =  (emafast[1]<emaslow[1] and open<emaslow[1]) ? 1 : 0
shortExitC = (emafast[1]>emaslow[1] and open>emaslow[1]) ? 1 : 0

// change退出条件。
longExit = change(longExitC) and longExitC==1 and tradeState==1
shortExit = change(shortExitC) and shortExitC==1 and tradeState==-1

// -- debugs
//plotchar(tradeState,"tradeState at Event",location=location.bottom, color=#FF0000FF)
//plotchar(longCondition, title="longCondition",color=#FF0000FF)
//plotchar(shortCondition, title="shortCondition",color=#FF0000FF)
//plotchar(tradeState, title="tradeState",color=#006400FF)
// -- /debugs

////////////////////////////////
//======[ 交易入门价格 ]======//
////////////////////////////////

last_open_longCondition = na
last_open_shortCondition = na
last_open_longCondition := longCondition ? close : nz(last_open_longCondition[1])
last_open_shortCondition := shortCondition ? close : nz(last_open_shortCondition[1])

////////////////////////////
//======[ 位置状态 ]======//
////////////////////////////

in_longCondition  = tradeState == 1 
in_shortCondition = tradeState == -1

////////////////////////
//======[ 尾停 ]======//
////////////////////////

isTS = input(true, "Trailing Stop")
ts = input(3.0, "Trailing Stop (%)", minval=0,step=0.1, type=float) /100

last_high = na
last_low = na
last_high_short = na
last_low_long = na
last_high := not in_longCondition ? na : in_longCondition and (na(last_high[1]) or high_ > nz(last_high[1])) ? high_ : nz(last_high[1])
last_high_short := not in_shortCondition ? na : in_shortCondition and (na(last_high[1]) or high_ > nz(last_high[1])) ? high_ : nz(last_high[1])
last_low := not in_shortCondition ? na : in_shortCondition and (na(last_low[1]) or low_ < nz(last_low[1])) ? low_ : nz(last_low[1])
last_low_long := not in_longCondition ? na : in_longCondition and (na(last_low[1]) or low_ < nz(last_low[1])) ? low_ : nz(last_low[1])

long_ts =  isTS and in_longCondition and not na(last_high) and (low_ <= last_high - last_high * ts) //and (last_high >= last_open_longCondition + last_open_longCondition * tsi)
short_ts = isTS and in_shortCondition and not na(last_low) and (high_ >= last_low + last_low * ts) //and (last_low <= last_open_shortCondition - last_open_shortCondition * tsi)


////////////////////////
//======[ 获利 ]======//
////////////////////////

isTP = input(true, "Take Profit")
tp = input(3.0, "Take Profit (%)",minval=0,step=0.1,type=float) / 100
ttp = input(1.0, "Trailing Profit (%)",minval=0,step=0.1,type=float) / 100
ttp := ttp>tp ? tp : ttp

long_tp =  isTP and in_longCondition  and (last_high >= last_open_longCondition + last_open_longCondition * tp)   and (low_ <= last_high - last_high * ttp)
short_tp = isTP and in_shortCondition and (last_low <= last_open_shortCondition - last_open_shortCondition * tp) and (high_ >= last_low + last_low * ttp)

////////////////////////////
//======[ 停止损耗 ]======//
////////////////////////////

isSL = input(false, "Stop Loss")
sl = input(3.0, "Stop Loss (%)", minval=0,step=0.1, type=float) / 100
long_sl =  isSL and in_longCondition and (low_ <= last_open_longCondition - last_open_longCondition * sl)
short_sl = isSL and in_shortCondition and (high_ >= last_open_shortCondition + last_open_shortCondition * sl)

////////////////////////
//======[ 对峙 ]======//
////////////////////////

//注：短出口信号不重漆，无需用力，如果锥体继续进行。
long_sos = (fastExit or (not isTS and not isSL)) and longExit and in_longCondition
short_sos = (fastExit or (not isTS and not isSL)) and shortExit and in_shortCondition 

////////////////////////////
//======[ 关闭信号 ]======//
////////////////////////////

// 为所有不同的关闭条件创建一个单独的关闭，这里的所有条件都不重漆。
longClose :=  isLong and (long_tp or long_sl or long_ts or long_sos) and not longCondition
shortClose := isShort and (short_tp or short_sl or short_ts or short_sos) and not shortCondition
////////////////////////////
//======[ 情节色彩 ]======//
////////////////////////////

longCloseCol = na
shortCloseCol = na
longCloseCol := long_tp ? green : long_sl ? maroon : long_ts ? purple : long_sos ? orange :longCloseCol[1]
shortCloseCol := short_tp ? green : short_sl ? maroon : short_ts ? purple : short_sos ? orange : shortCloseCol[1]
//
tpColor = isTP and in_longCondition ? lime : isTP and in_shortCondition ? lime : na
slColor = isSL and in_longCondition ? red : isSL and in_shortCondition ? red : na


//////////////////////////////////
//======[ 策略图 ]======//
//////////////////////////////////

plot(isTS and in_longCondition?
     last_high - last_high * ts : na, "Long Trailing", fuchsia, style=2, linewidth=2,offset=1)
plot(isTP and in_longCondition and last_high < last_open_longCondition + last_open_longCondition * tp ? 
     last_open_longCondition + last_open_longCondition * tp : na, "Long TP Active", tpColor, style=3,join=false, linewidth=2,offset=1)
plot(isTP and in_longCondition and last_high >= last_open_longCondition +  last_open_longCondition * tp ? 
     last_high - last_high * ttp : na, "Long Trailing", black, style=2, linewidth=2,offset=1)
plot(isSL and in_longCondition and last_low_long > last_open_longCondition - last_open_longCondition * sl ? 
     last_open_longCondition - last_open_longCondition * sl : na, "Long SL", slColor, style=3,join=false, linewidth=2,offset=1)

plot(isTS and in_shortCondition?
     last_low + last_low * ts : na, "Short Trailing", fuchsia, style=2, linewidth=2,offset=1)
plot(isTP and in_shortCondition and last_low > last_open_shortCondition - last_open_shortCondition * tp ? 
     last_open_shortCondition - last_open_shortCondition * tp : na, "Short TP Active", tpColor, style=3,join=false, linewidth=2,offset=1)
plot(isTP and in_shortCondition and last_low <= last_open_shortCondition -  last_open_shortCondition * tp ? 
     last_low + last_low * ttp : na, "Short Trailing", black, style=2, linewidth=2,offset=1)
plot(isSL and in_shortCondition and last_high_short < last_open_shortCondition + last_open_shortCondition * sl ? 
     last_open_shortCondition + last_open_shortCondition * sl : na, "Short SL", slColor, style=3,join=false, linewidth=2,offset=1)

bclr = not clrBars ? na : tradeState==0 ? GRAY : 
                          in_longCondition ? close<last_open_longCondition? DARKGREEN : LIME :
                          in_shortCondition ? close>last_open_shortCondition? DARKRED : RED : GRAY
barcolor(bclr,title="Trade State Bar Colouring")


//////////////////////////////////
//======[ 战略进入与退出 ]======//
//////////////////////////////////

if testPeriod() and isLong
    strategy.entry("Long", 1, when=longCondition)
    strategy.close("Long", when=longClose )

if testPeriod() and isShort
    strategy.entry("Short", 0,  when=shortCondition)
    strategy.close("Short", when=shortClose )
    
// --- Debugs
//plotchar(longExit,title="longExit",location=location.bottom,color=na)
//plotchar(longCondition,title="longCondition",location=location.bottom,color=na)
//plotchar(in_longCondition,title="in_longCondition",location=location.bottom,color=na)
//plotchar(longClose,title="longClose",location=location.bottom,color=na,color=na)
//plotchar(buy,title="buy",location=location.bottom,color=na)
// --- /Debugs
//开单时改变背景
bgcolor( in_longCondition ? lime : na, transp=90)
bgcolor( in_shortCondition ? red : na, transp=90)

////////////////////////////
//======[ 重置变量 ]======//
////////////////////////////


if longClose or not in_longCondition
    last_high := na
    last_high_short := na
    
if shortClose or not in_shortCondition
    last_low := na
    last_low_long := na
    
if longClose or shortClose
    tradeState := 0
    in_longCondition := false
    in_shortCondition := false

    
//plotchar(tradeState,"tradeState at EOF",location=location.bottom, color=na)
// EOF

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