Strategi Pengesanan Trend Gabungan Dua EMA dan RSI

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tarikh: 2024-01-18 15:51:06
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Ringkasan

Strategi ini menggabungkan penggunaan penunjuk EMA dan RSI berganda untuk mengenal pasti trend harga dan mengambil kedudukan tepat pada masanya apabila pembalikan trend berlaku. Khususnya, strategi ini menggunakan EMA kitaran yang lebih lama untuk menilai arah trend utama, sementara menggunakan penunjuk RSI untuk menentukan keadaan overbought dan oversold jangka pendek.

Logika Strategi

  1. Gunakan EMA tempoh 200 untuk menentukan arah trend utama. Harga melintasi di atas garis EMA menandakan pandangan bullish, sementara melintasi di bawah menandakan pandangan bearish.

  2. Parameter penunjuk RSI ditetapkan kepada 10 tempoh. RSI melintasi di atas 40 isyarat keadaan oversold, manakala melintasi di bawah 60 isyarat keadaan overbought.

  3. Apabila trend utama naik (harga di atas garis EMA) dan RSI melintasi bawah 40 isyarat oversold berlaku, pergi panjang.

  4. Apabila trend utama menurun (harga di bawah garis EMA) dan RSI melintasi di atas 60 isyarat overbought berlaku, pergi pendek.

  5. Ambil keuntungan yang ditetapkan kepada 2 kali stop loss untuk nisbah risiko ganjaran 2: 1.

Analisis Kelebihan

Kelebihan terbesar strategi ini adalah gabungan kedua-dua penunjuk trend dan pembalikan, yang membolehkan kemasukan tepat pada masanya apabila penurunan berlaku dalam trend, oleh itu prestasi yang lebih baik dapat diperoleh.

  1. Menggunakan sistem EMA berganda untuk menentukan arah trend utama untuk pengesanan trend yang berkesan.

  2. Indikator RSI mengenal pasti keadaan overbought / oversold jangka pendek, membantu masa kemasukan.

  3. Stop loss yang ditetapkan melalui penunjuk ATR disesuaikan dengan turun naik pasaran untuk kawalan risiko yang lebih baik.

  4. Mengikuti prinsip perdagangan trend dengan ketat mengurangkan perdagangan yang tidak perlu dan risiko sistem.

Analisis Risiko

Risiko utama strategi ini termasuk:

  1. Isyarat perdagangan palsu mungkin berlaku apabila trend melemah dan harga berayun. Berdagang dengan berhati-hati pada masa-masa ini.

  2. Pengaturan stop loss yang ditetapkan oleh ATR mungkin terlalu luas atau terlalu ketat dalam keadaan pasaran yang melampau.

  3. Frekuensi isyarat yang berpotensi tinggi memerlukan keutamaan frekuensi dagangan peribadi.

  4. Kesesuaian parameter RSI perlu dipantau untuk pengoptimuman tepat pada masanya.

Arahan pengoptimuman

Arah pengoptimuman utama termasuk:

  1. Uji tambah penunjuk trend lain seperti MACD untuk membantu penilaian trend.

  2. Uji menggabungkan RSI dengan penunjuk pembalikan lain seperti KDJ, Bollinger Bands untuk isyarat yang lebih baik.

  3. Memperkenalkan algoritma pembelajaran mesin untuk pelarasan parameter dinamik dan pengambilan stop loss / keuntungan adaptif.

  4. Sertakan lebih banyak faktor seperti sentimen, berita untuk ketahanan sistem yang lebih tinggi.

Kesimpulan

Secara keseluruhan, ini adalah strategi jangka pendek yang sangat tipikal yang menggabungkan pengesanan trend dan penukaran penunjuk. Ia menilai trend utama dengan EMA berganda dan menangkap peluang mundur dalam trend menggunakan ciri-ciri pembalikan RSI. Pada prinsipnya, strategi ini menggabungkan kekuatan penunjuk yang berbeza untuk kesan pelengkap yang sangat baik. Penambahbaikan lanjut pada pengoptimuman parameter, penggabungan model dll. boleh meningkatkan prestasi secara signifikan.


/*backtest
start: 2024-01-10 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-14 13:00:00
period: 5m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © kevinmck100

// @description
// This strategy is intended to be used as a base template for building new strategies.
//
// It incorporates the following features:
//
//      - Risk management:  Configurable X% loss per stop loss
//                          Configurable R:R ratio
//
//      - Trade entry:      Calculated position size based on risk tolerance
//
//      - Trade exit:       Stop Loss currently configurable ATR multiplier but can be replaced based on strategy
//                          Take Profit calculated from Stop Loss using R:R ratio
//
//      - Backtesting:      Configurable backtesting range by date
//
//      - Trade drawings:   TP/SL boxes drawn for all trades. Can be turned on and off
//                          Trade exit information labels. Can be turned on and off
//                          NOTE: Trade drawings will only be applicable when using overlay strategies
//
//      - Debugging:        Includes section with useful debugging techniques
//
// Strategy conditions:
//
//      - Trade entry:      LONG:   C1: Price is above EMA line
//                                  C2: RSI is crossing out of oversold area
//                          SHORT:  C1: Price is below EMA line
//                                  C2: RSI is crossing out of overbought area
//
//      - Trade exit:       Stop Loss:      Stop Loss ATR multiplier is hit
//                          Take Profit:    R:R multiplier * Stop Loss is hit
//
// The idea is to use RSI to catch pullbacks within the main trend. Note that
// this strategy is intended to be a simple base strategy for building upon.
// It was not designed to be traded in its current form.

//@version=5
INITIAL_CAPITAL = 1000
DEFAULT_COMMISSION = 0.02
MAX_DRAWINGS = 500
IS_OVERLAY = true

strategy("Risk Management Strategy Template", "Strategy Template", overlay = IS_OVERLAY, initial_capital = INITIAL_CAPITAL, currency = currency.NONE, max_labels_count = MAX_DRAWINGS, max_boxes_count = MAX_DRAWINGS, max_lines_count = MAX_DRAWINGS, default_qty_type = strategy.cash, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, commission_value = DEFAULT_COMMISSION)

// =============================================================================
// INPUTS
// =============================================================================

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// ------------------
// Indicator Settings
// ------------------
emaLength           = input.int (200,   "EMA Length          ",             group = "Indicators: Settings",         inline = "IS1", minval = 1,                 tooltip = "EMA line to identify trend direction. Above EMA trend line is bullish. Below EMA trend line is bearish")
rsiLength           = input.int (10,    "RSI Length            ",           group = "Indicators: Settings",         inline = "IS2", minval = 1)

// ----------------------
// Trade Entry Conditions
// ----------------------
rsiOverbought       = input.int (60,    "RSI Overbought        ",           group = "Strategy: Conditions",         inline = "SC1", minval = 50, maxval = 100,  tooltip = "RSI overbought level used to identify pullbacks within the main trend. RSI crossing BELOW this level triggers a SHORT when in a DOWN trend")
rsiOversold         = input.int (40,    "RSI Oversold          ",           group = "Strategy: Conditions",         inline = "SC2", minval = 0,  maxval = 50,   tooltip = "RSI overbought level used to identify pullbacks within the main trend. RSI crossing ABOVE this level triggers a LONG when in an UP trend")

// ---------------------
// Trade Exit Conditions
// ---------------------
atrLength           = input.int  (14,   "Stop Loss ATR Length      ",       group = "Strategy: Exit Conditions",    inline = "EC1", minval = 0,                 tooltip = "Length of ATR used to calculate Stop Loss.")
slAtrMultiplier     = input.float(4,    "Stop Loss ATR Multiplier     ",    group = "Strategy: Exit Conditions",    inline = "EC2", minval = 0, step = 0.1,     tooltip = "Size of StopLoss is determined by multiplication of ATR value. Take Profit is derived from this also by multiplying the StopLoss value by the Risk:Reward multiplier.")
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------

// ---------------
// Risk Management
// ---------------
riskReward          = input.float(2,    "Risk : Reward        1 :",         group = "Strategy: Risk Management",    inline = "RM1", minval = 0, step = 0.1,     tooltip = "Previous high or low (long/short dependant) is used to determine TP level. 'Risk : Reward' ratio is then used to calculate SL based of previous high/low level.\n\nIn short, the higher the R:R ratio, the smaller the SL since TP target is fixed by previous high/low price data.")
accountRiskPercent  = input.float(1,    "Portfolio Risk %         ",        group = "Strategy: Risk Management",    inline = "RM1", minval = 0, step = 0.1,     tooltip = "Percentage of portfolio you lose if trade hits SL.\n\nYou then stand to gain\n  Portfolio Risk % * Risk : Reward\nif trade hits TP.")

// ----------
// Date Range
// ----------
startYear           = input.int (2022,  "Start Date       ",                group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR1', minval    = 1900, maxval = 2100)
startMonth          = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR1', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12])
startDate           = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR1', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31])
endYear             = input.int (2100,  "End Date      ",                   group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR2', minval    = 1900, maxval = 2100)
endMonth            = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR2', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12])
endDate             = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR2', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31])

// ----------------
// Drawing Settings
// ----------------
showTpSlBoxes       = input.bool(false,  "Show TP / SL Boxes",               group = "Strategy: Drawings",           inline = "D1",  tooltip = "Show or hide TP and SL position boxes.\n\nNote: TradingView limits the maximum number of boxes that can be displayed to 500 so they may not appear for all price data under test.")
showLabels          = input.bool(false, "Show Trade Exit Labels",           group = "Strategy: Drawings",           inline = "D2",  tooltip = "Useful labels to identify Profit/Loss and cumulative portfolio capital after each trade closes.\n\nAlso note that TradingView limits the max number of 'boxes' that can be displayed on a chart (max 500). This means when you lookback far enough on the chart you will not see the TP/SL boxes. However you can check this option to identify where trades exited.")

// =============================================================================
// INDICATORS
// =============================================================================

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// ---
// EMA
// ---
ema = ta.ema(close, emaLength)
plot(ema, "EMA Trend Line", color.white)

// ---
// RSI
// ---
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------


// =============================================================================
// STRATEGY LOGIC
// =============================================================================

// ---------
// FUNCTIONS
// ---------

percentAsPoints(pcnt) =>
    math.round(pcnt / 100 * close / syminfo.mintick)
    
calcStopLossPrice(pointsOffset, isLong) =>
    priceOffset = pointsOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if isLong
        close - priceOffset
    else 
        close + priceOffset

calcProfitTrgtPrice(pointsOffset, isLong) =>
    calcStopLossPrice(-pointsOffset, isLong)
    
        
printLabel(barIndex, msg) => label.new(barIndex, close, msg)

printTpSlHitBox(left, right, slHit, tpHit, entryPrice, slPrice, tpPrice) => 
    if showTpSlBoxes
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = slPrice,   bgcolor = slHit ? color.new(color.red, 60)   : color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = tpPrice,   bgcolor = tpHit ? color.new(color.green, 60) : color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = entryPrice,    x2 = right,     y2 = entryPrice,    color = color.new(color.yellow, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = slPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = slPrice,       color = color.new(color.red, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = tpPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = tpPrice,       color = color.new(color.green, 20))
        
printTpSlNotHitBox(left, right, entryPrice, slPrice, tpPrice) => 
    if showTpSlBoxes
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = slPrice,   bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = tpPrice,   bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = entryPrice,    x2 = right,     y2 = entryPrice,    color = color.new(color.yellow, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = slPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = slPrice,       color = color.new(color.red, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = tpPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = tpPrice,       color = color.new(color.green, 20))
        
printTradeExitLabel(x, y, posSize, entryPrice, pnl) => 
    if showLabels
        labelStr = "Position Size: " + str.tostring(math.abs(posSize), "#.##") + "\nPNL: " + str.tostring(pnl, "#.##") + "\nCapital: " + str.tostring(strategy.equity, "#.##") + "\nEntry Price: " + str.tostring(entryPrice, "#.##")
        label.new(x = x, y = y, text = labelStr, color = pnl > 0 ? color.new(color.green, 60) : color.new(color.red, 60), textcolor = color.white, style = label.style_label_down)

// ----------
// CONDITIONS
// ----------

inDateRange         = time >= timestamp(syminfo.timezone, startYear, startMonth, startDate, 0, 0) and time < timestamp(syminfo.timezone, endYear, endMonth, endDate, 0, 0)

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// Condition 1: Price above EMA indicates bullish trend, price below EMA indicates bearish trend
bullEma             = close > ema
bearEma             = close < ema

// Condition 2: RSI crossing back from overbought/oversold indicates pullback within trend
bullRsi             = ta.crossover  (rsi, rsiOversold)
bearRsi             = ta.crossunder (rsi, rsiOverbought)

// Combine all entry conditions
goLong              = inDateRange and bullEma and bullRsi
goShort             = inDateRange and bearEma and bearRsi
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------

// Trade entry and exit variables
var tradeEntryBar   = bar_index
var profitPoints    = 0.
var lossPoints      = 0.
var slPrice         = 0.
var tpPrice         = 0.
var inLong          = false
var inShort         = false

// Entry decisions
openLong            = (goLong and not inLong)
openShort           = (goShort and not inShort)
flippingSides       = (goLong and inShort) or (goShort and inLong)
enteringTrade       = openLong or openShort
inTrade             = inLong or inShort

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// Exit calculations
atr                 = ta.atr(atrLength)
slAmount            = atr * slAtrMultiplier
slPercent           = math.abs((1 - (close - slAmount) / close) * 100)
tpPercent           = slPercent * riskReward
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------

// Risk calculations
riskAmt             = strategy.equity * accountRiskPercent / 100
entryQty            = math.abs(riskAmt / slPercent * 100)  / close

if openLong
    if strategy.position_size < 0
        printTpSlNotHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index + 1, strategy.position_avg_price, slPrice, tpPrice)
        printTradeExitLabel(bar_index + 1, math.max(tpPrice, slPrice), strategy.position_size, strategy.position_avg_price, strategy.openprofit)
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty = entryQty, alert_message = "Long Entry")
    enteringTrade   := true
    inLong          := true
    inShort         := false

if openShort
    if strategy.position_size > 0
        printTpSlNotHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index + 1, strategy.position_avg_price, slPrice, tpPrice)
        printTradeExitLabel(bar_index + 1, math.max(tpPrice, slPrice), strategy.position_size, strategy.position_avg_price, strategy.openprofit)
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty = entryQty, alert_message = "Short Entry")
    enteringTrade   := true
    inShort         := true
    inLong          := false

if enteringTrade
    profitPoints    := percentAsPoints(tpPercent)
    lossPoints      := percentAsPoints(slPercent)
    slPrice         := calcStopLossPrice(lossPoints, openLong)
    tpPrice         := calcProfitTrgtPrice(profitPoints, openLong)
    tradeEntryBar   := bar_index

strategy.exit("TP/SL", profit = profitPoints, loss = lossPoints, comment_profit = "TP Hit", comment_loss = "SL Hit", alert_profit = "TP Hit Alert", alert_loss = "SL Hit Alert")

// =============================================================================
// DRAWINGS
// =============================================================================

// -----------
// TP/SL Boxes
// -----------

slHit           = (inShort and high >= slPrice) or (inLong  and low <= slPrice)
tpHit           = (inLong  and high >= tpPrice) or (inShort and low <= tpPrice)
exitTriggered   = slHit or tpHit
entryPrice      = strategy.closedtrades.entry_price (strategy.closedtrades - 1)
pnl             = strategy.closedtrades.profit      (strategy.closedtrades - 1)
posSize         = strategy.closedtrades.size        (strategy.closedtrades - 1)

// Print boxes for trades closed at profit or loss
if (inTrade and exitTriggered) 
    inShort    := false
    inLong     := false 
    printTpSlHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index, slHit, tpHit, entryPrice, slPrice, tpPrice)
    printTradeExitLabel(bar_index, math.max(tpPrice, slPrice), posSize, entryPrice, pnl)

// Print TP/SL box for current open trade
if barstate.islastconfirmedhistory and strategy.position_size != 0
    printTpSlNotHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index + 1, strategy.position_avg_price, slPrice, tpPrice)
    
// =============================================================================
// DEBUGGING
// =============================================================================

// Data window plots
plotchar(slPrice,    "Stop Loss Price",     "")
plotchar(tpPrice,    "Take Profit Price",   "")

// Label plots
plotDebugLabels = false
if plotDebugLabels
    if bar_index == tradeEntryBar 
        printLabel(bar_index, "Position size: " + str.tostring(entryQty * close, "#.##"))


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