Strategi Pelacakan Risiko Piramida Rendah

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2023-12-22 12:56:36
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Strategi ini mengidentifikasi titik terendah potensial dalam pergerakan harga melalui kombinasi indikator yang berbeda dan secara bertahap membangun posisi melalui piramida untuk mengurangi risiko.

Tinjauan Strategi

Strategi ini pertama-tama menggunakan perbedaan antara RSI dan EMA RSI untuk mengidentifikasi potensi harga terendah. Untuk menyaring sinyal palsu, strategi ini juga menggabungkan moving average dan indikator stokastik multi-frame untuk konfirmasi. Setelah sinyal titik rendah dikonfirmasi, posisi panjang akan secara bertahap dibangun dengan harga yang sedikit lebih rendah dari titik itu melalui piramida. Strategi ini memungkinkan hingga 12 pesanan pelacakan dibuka, dengan ukuran setiap pesanan meningkat secara berurutan, yang dapat secara efektif mendiversifikasi risiko. Semua pesanan akan mengikuti stop loss keseluruhan untuk keluar, sementara memungkinkan untuk mengambil keuntungan secara terpisah untuk setiap pesanan. Untuk mengendalikan risiko lebih lanjut, strategi juga menetapkan persentase stop loss keseluruhan berdasarkan ekuitas.

Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini terdiri dari tiga modul utama: identifikasi titik rendah, pelacakan piramida dan pengendalian risiko.

PeraturanModul identifikasi titik rendahmenggunakan perbedaan antara RSI dan EMA untuk mengidentifikasi potensi titik terendah harga. Untuk meningkatkan akurasi, indikator rata-rata bergerak dan indikator stokastik multi-frame diperkenalkan untuk penyaringan sinyal. Hanya ketika harga di bawah rata-rata bergerak dan garis K stokastik di bawah 30, validitas sinyal titik rendah akan dikonfirmasi.

Peraturanmodul pelacakan piramidastrategi ini adalah inti dari strategi ini. Setelah sinyal titik rendah dikonfirmasi, strategi akan membuka posisi pertama pada 0,1% di bawah titik rendah itu. Setelah itu, selama harga terus turun dan di bawah persentase tertentu dari harga masuk rata-rata, lebih banyak pesanan panjang akan ditambahkan. Ukuran pesanan baru akan meningkat secara berurutan, misalnya pesanan ketiga adalah 3 kali ukuran pesanan pertama. Pendekatan pelacakan piramida ini membantu rata-rata risiko. Strategi memungkinkan hingga 12 pesanan pelacakan.

PeraturanModul pengendalian risikoStop loss adalah suatu metode yang digunakan untuk mengontrol risiko yang paling kuat. Stop loss adalah suatu metode yang digunakan untuk mengontrol risiko yang paling kuat. Stop loss adalah metode yang digunakan untuk mengontrol risiko yang paling kuat.

Keuntungan Strategi

  • Pelacakan piramida mengurangi risiko pesanan individu sambil mendiversifikasi risiko keseluruhan
  • Kombinasi indikator meningkatkan akurasi identifikasi titik rendah
  • Fungsi stop loss, take profit dan trailing stop secara efektif mengendalikan risiko
  • Stop loss ekuitas melindungi akun dari kerugian yang signifikan
  • Parameter dapat disetel untuk menyeimbangkan risiko vs imbalan

Risiko Strategi

  • Identifikasi titik rendah masih memiliki beberapa keterbatasan, mungkin melewatkan titik masuk terbaik atau masuk ke sinyal palsu
  • Menghadapi pasar yang merugikan saat menambahkan pesanan dapat meningkatkan kerugian
  • Membutuhkan periode yang relatif lama untuk mencerminkan keuntungan
  • Pengaturan parameter yang tidak tepat dapat menyebabkan kontrol risiko yang tidak memadai

Untuk mengurangi risiko di atas, beberapa aspek dapat dioptimalkan:

  1. Mengubah atau menambahkan indikator untuk meningkatkan akurasi identifikasi titik rendah
  2. Mengoptimalkan jumlah pesanan, interval, mengambil persentase keuntungan dll untuk mengurangi risiko per pesanan
  3. Meningkatkan tingkat stop loss untuk melindungi keuntungan
  4. Uji produk yang berbeda dengan likuiditas yang baik dan fluktuasi besar

Optimasi Strategi

Masih ada ruang untuk optimalisasi lebih lanjut dari strategi ini:

  1. Cobalah memperkenalkan teknik yang lebih canggih seperti pembelajaran mesin untuk identifikasi titik rendah
  2. Mengatur secara dinamis jumlah pesanan, tingkat stop loss dll berdasarkan kondisi pasar
  3. Tambahkan mekanisme stop loss kotak untuk menghindari ekspansi kerugian
  4. Tambahkan mekanisme masuk kembali
  5. Mengoptimalkan parameter untuk saham dan mata uang kripto

Ringkasan

Strategi ini secara efektif mengurangi risiko pesanan individu melalui pendekatan pelacakan piramida, dan keseluruhan fungsi stop loss, take profit, trailing stop juga memainkan peran yang sangat baik dalam pengendalian risiko.


/*backtest
start: 2022-12-15 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-21 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © A3Sh
//@version=5

// Strategy that finds potential lows in the price action and spreads the risk by entering multiple positions at these lows.
// The low is detected based on the difference between MTF RSI and EMA based RSI, Moving Average and MTF Stochastic indicators.
// The size of each next position that is entered is multiplied by the sequential number of the position.
// Each separate position can exit when a specified take profit is triggered and re-open when detecting a new potential low.
// All positions are closed when the price action crosses over the dynamic blue stop level line.

// This strategy combines open-source code developed by fellow Tradingview community members: 
// The Lowfinder code is developed by RafaelZioni
// https://www.tradingview.com/script/GzKq2RVl-Low-finder/
// Both the MTF RSI code and the MTF Stochastic code are adapted from the MTFindicators libary written by Peter_O
// https://www.tradingview.com/script/UUVWSpXR-MTFindicators/

// The Stop Level calculation is inspired by the syminfo-mintick tutorial on Kodify.net
// https://kodify.net/tradingview/info/syminfo-mintick/

strategy("LowFinder_PyraMider", 
         overlay=true, pyramiding=99, 
         precision=2,
         initial_capital=10000, 
         default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, 
         default_qty_value=10,
         commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, 
         commission_value=0.06,
         slippage=1
         )


// Backtest Window
start_time   = input(defval=timestamp("01 April 2021 20:00"), group = "Backtest Window", title="Start Time")
end_time     = input(defval=timestamp("01 Aug 2030 20:00"),   group = "Backtest Window", title="End Time")
window() => true


// Inputs
portfolio_size  = input.float  (100,         group = 'Risk - Portfolio',       title = 'Portfolio %', step=1.0) / 100
leverage        = input.int    (1,           group = 'Risk - Portfolio',       title = 'Leverage', minval = 1)
q_mode          = input.string ('multiply',  group = 'Risk - Order Size',      title = 'Order Size Mode', options = ['base', 'multiply'], tooltip = 'Base mode: the base quantiy for each sequential order. Multiply mode: each quantity is multiplied by order number')
q_mode_m        = input.int    (1,           group = 'Risk - Order Size',      title = 'Order Size Divider (Multiply Mode)',  tooltip = 'Divide Multiply by this number to lower the sequential order sizes')
fixed_q         = input.bool   (false,       group = 'Risk - Order Size',      title = 'Fixed Order Size',     inline = '01', tooltip = 'Use with caution! Overrides all Risk calculations')
amount_q        = input.float  (1,           group = 'Risk - Order Size',      title = '. . Base Currency:',   inline = '01')
sl_on           = input.bool   (false,       group = 'Risk - Stop Loss',       title = 'StopLoss of',          inline = '03')
stopLoss        = input.float  (1.5,         group = 'Risk - Stop Loss',       title = '',   step=0.1,         inline = '03') / 100
sl_mode         = input.string ('equity',    group = 'Risk - Stop Loss',       title = '% of',  options = ['avg_price', 'equity'], inline = '03')
stop_len        = input.int    (100,         group = 'Risk - Stop Level',      title = 'Stop Level Length', tooltip = 'Lookback most recent highest high')
stop_deviation  = input.float  (0.3,         group = 'Risk - Stop Level',      title = 'Deviatation % above Stop Level', step=0.1) / 100
cond2_toggle    = input.bool   (true ,       group = 'Risk - Take Profit',     title = 'Take Profit/Trailing Stop', inline = '04')
tp_all          = input.float  (1.0,         group = 'Risk - Take Profit',     title = '..........%', step=0.1,     inline = '04') / 100
tp_on           = input.bool   (true,        group = 'Risk - Take Profit',     title = 'Exit Crossover Take Profit and .....', inline = '02')
exit_mode       = input.string ('stoplevel', group = 'Risk - Take Profit',     title = '',   options = ['close', 'stoplevel'], inline = '02')
takeProfit      = input.float  (10.0,        group = 'Risk - Take Profit',     title = 'Take Profit % per Order', tooltip = 'Each separate order exits when hit', step=0.1)
posCount        = input.int    (12,          group = 'Pyramiding Settings',    title = 'Max Number of Orders')
next_entry      = input.float  (0.2,         group = 'Pyramiding Settings',    title = 'Next Order % below Avg. Price', step=0.1)
oa_lookback     = input.int    (0,           group = 'Pyramiding Settings',    title = 'Next Order after X candles', tooltip = 'Prevents opening too much orders in a Row')
len_rsi         = input.int    (5,           group = 'MTF LowFinder Settings', title = 'Lookback of RSI')
mtf_rsi         = input.int    (1,           group = 'MTF LowFinder Settings', title = 'Higher TimeFrame Multiplier RSI',  tooltip='Multiplies the current timeframe by specified value')
ma_length       = input.int    (26,          group = 'MTF LowFinder Settings', title = 'MA Length / Sensitivity')
new_entry       = input.float  (0.1,         group = 'MTF LowFinder Settings', title = 'First Order % below Low',step=0.1, tooltip = 'Open % lower then the found low')/100
ma_signal       = input.int    (100,         group = 'Moving Average Filter',  title = 'Moving Average Length')
periodK         = input.int    (14,          group = 'MTF Stochastic Filter',  title = 'K',      minval=1)
periodD         = input.int    (3,           group = 'MTF Stochastic Filter',  title = 'D',      minval=1)
smoothK         = input.int    (3,           group = 'MTF Stochastic Filter',  title = 'Smooth', minval=1)
lower           = input.int    (30,          group = 'MTF Stochastic Filter',  title = 'MTF Stoch Filter (above gets filtered)')
mtf_stoch       = input.int    (10,          group = 'MTF Stochastic Filter',  title = 'Higher TimeFrame Multiplier', tooltip='Multiplies the current timeframe by specified value')
avg_on          = input.bool   (true,        group = 'Plots',                  title = 'Plot Average Price')
plot_ma         = input.bool   (false,       group = 'Plots',                  title = 'Plot Moving Average')
plot_ts         = input.bool   (false,       group = 'Plots',                  title = 'Plot Trailing Stop Level')


// variables //
var entry_price     = 0.0    // The entry price of the first entry
var previous_entry  = 0.0    // Stores the price of the previous entry
var iq              = 0.0    // Inititial order quantity before risk calculation
var nq              = 0.0    // Updated new quantity after the loop
var oq              = 0.0    // Old quantity at the beginning or the loop
var q               = 0.0    // Final calculated quantity used as base order size
var int order_after = 0



// Order size calaculations // 

// Order size based on max amount of pyramiding orders or fixed by user input ///
// Order size calculation based on 'base' mode or ' multiply' mode //
if fixed_q
    q := amount_q
else if q_mode == 'multiply'
    iq := (math.abs(strategy.equity * portfolio_size  / posCount) / open) * leverage
    oq := iq
    for i = 0 to posCount
        nq := oq + (iq * ( i/ q_mode_m + 1))
        oq := nq 
    q := (iq  * posCount /  oq) * iq

else
    q := (math.abs(strategy.equity * portfolio_size  / posCount) / open) * leverage

// Function to calcaulate final order size based on order size modes and round the result with 1 decimal //
quantity_mode(index,string q_mode) =>
    q_mode == 'base' ? math.round(q,1) : q_mode == 'multiply' ? math.round(q * (index/q_mode_m  + 1),1) : na



// LowFinder Calculations //
// MTF RSI by Peter_O //
rsi_mtf(float source, simple int mtf,simple int len) =>
    change_mtf=source-source[mtf]
    up_mtf = ta.rma(math.max(change_mtf, 0), len*mtf)
    down_mtf = ta.rma(-math.min(change_mtf, 0), len*mtf)
    rsi_mtf = down_mtf == 0 ? 100 : up_mtf == 0 ? 0 : 100 - (100 / (1 + up_mtf / down_mtf))

// Lowfinder by RafaelZioni //
vrsi = rsi_mtf(close,mtf_rsi,len_rsi)

pp=ta.ema(vrsi,ma_length)
dd=(vrsi-pp)*5
cc=(vrsi+dd+pp)/2

lows=ta.crossover(cc,0) 



// MTF Stoch Calcualation // MTF Stoch adapted from  Peter_O //
stoch_mtfK(source, mtf, len) =>

    k = ta.sma(ta.stoch(source, high, low, periodK * mtf), smoothK * mtf)
    
stoch_mtfD(source, mtf, len) =>

    k = ta.sma(ta.stoch(source, high, low, periodK * mtf), smoothK * mtf)
    d = ta.sma(k, periodD * mtf)
    
mtfK = stoch_mtfK(close, mtf_stoch, periodK)
mtfD = stoch_mtfD(close, mtf_stoch, periodK)



// Open next position % below average position price //
below_avg = close < (strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - (next_entry / 100)))



// Moving Average Filter //
moving_average_signal = ta.sma(close, ma_signal)
plot (plot_ma ? moving_average_signal : na, title = 'Moving Average', color = color.rgb(154, 255, 72))



// Buy Signal //
buy_signal = lows and close < moving_average_signal and mtfK < lower
// First Entry % Below lows //
if buy_signal
    entry_price := close * (1 - new_entry)



// Plot Average Price of Position//
plot (avg_on  ? strategy.position_avg_price : na, title = 'Average Price', style = plot.style_linebr, color = color.new(color.white,0), linewidth = 1)



// Take profit per Open Order //
take_profit_price = close * takeProfit / 100 / syminfo.mintick



// Calculate different Stop Level conditions to exit All //

// Stop Level Caculation //
stop_long1_level = ta.highest (high, stop_len)[1]  * (1 + stop_deviation)
stop_long2_level = ta.highest (high, stop_len)[2]  * (1 + stop_deviation)
stop_long3_level = ta.highest (high, stop_len)[3]  * (1 + stop_deviation)
stop_long4_level = ta.highest (high, stop_len)[1]  * (1 - 0.008) 
// Stop triggers //
stop_long1 = ta.crossover(close,stop_long1_level)
stop_long2 = ta.crossover(close,stop_long2_level)
stop_long4 = ta.crossunder(close,stop_long4_level)
// Exit Conditions, cond 1 only Stop Level, cond2 Trailing Stop option //
exit_condition_1 = close < strategy.position_avg_price ? stop_long1 : close > strategy.position_avg_price ? stop_long2 : na
exit_condition_2 = close < strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp_all) ? stop_long2 : 
                   close > strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp_all) ? stop_long4 :
                   close < strategy.position_avg_price ? stop_long1 : na
// Switch between conditions //
exit_conditions = cond2_toggle ? exit_condition_2 : exit_condition_1

// Exit when take profit //
ex_m = exit_mode == 'close' ? close : stop_long2_level
tp_exit = ta.crossover(ex_m, strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp_all)) and close > strategy.position_avg_price * 1.002

// Plot stoplevel, take profit level //
plot_stop_level    = strategy.position_size > 0 ? stop_long2_level : na
plot_trailing_stop = cond2_toggle and plot_ts and strategy.position_size > 0 and close > strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp_all) ? stop_long4_level : na

plot(plot_stop_level,    title = 'Stop Level',    style=plot.style_linebr, color = color.new(#41e3ff, 0), linewidth = 1)
plot(plot_trailing_stop, title = 'Trailing Stop', style=plot.style_linebr, color = color.new(#4cfca4, 0), linewidth = 1)

plot_tp_level = cond2_toggle and strategy.position_size > 0 ? strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp_all) : na
plot(plot_tp_level, title = 'Take Profit Level', style=plot.style_linebr, color = color.new(#ff41df, 0), linewidth = 1)



// Calculate Stop Loss based on equity and average price //
loss_equity = ((strategy.position_size * strategy.position_avg_price) - (strategy.equity * stopLoss)) / strategy.position_size
loss_avg_price = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLoss)
stop_loss = sl_mode == 'avg_price' ? loss_avg_price : loss_equity
plot(strategy.position_size > 0  and sl_on ? stop_loss : na, title = 'Stop Loss', color=color.new(color.red,0),style=plot.style_linebr, linewidth = 1)



// Enter first position //
if ta.crossunder(close,entry_price) and window() and strategy.position_size == 0
    strategy.entry('L_1', strategy.long, qty = math.round(q,1), comment = '+' + str.tostring(math.round(q,1)))
    previous_entry := close


// Enter next pyramiding positions //
if buy_signal and window() and strategy.position_size > 0 and below_avg
    order_after := order_after + 1
    for i = 1 to strategy.opentrades
        entry_comment = '+' + str.tostring((quantity_mode(i,q_mode))) // Comment with variable //
        if strategy.opentrades == i and i < posCount and order_after > oa_lookback
            entry_price := close
            entry_id = 'L_' + str.tostring(i + 1) 
            strategy.entry(id = entry_id, direction=strategy.long, limit=entry_price, qty= quantity_mode(i,q_mode), comment = entry_comment)
            previous_entry := entry_price
            order_after := 0


// Exit per Position //
if strategy.opentrades > 0 and window() 
    for i = 0 to strategy.opentrades 
        exit_comment = '-' + str.tostring(strategy.opentrades.size(i))
        exit_from = 'L_' + str.tostring(i + 1)
        exit_id = 'Exit_' + str.tostring(i + 1)
        strategy.exit(id= exit_id, from_entry= exit_from, profit = take_profit_price, comment = exit_comment)
            

// Exit All //
if exit_conditions or (tp_exit and tp_on and cond2_toggle) and window()
    strategy.close_all('Exti All')
    entry_price := 0

if ta.crossunder(close,stop_loss)  and sl_on and window()
    strategy.close_all('StopLoss')
    entry_price := 0
    





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