Strategi Breakout Rata-rata Pergerakan Supertrend Tiga Kali Lipat


Tanggal Pembuatan: 2023-12-21 12:05:07 Akhirnya memodifikasi: 2023-12-21 12:05:07
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Strategi Breakout Rata-rata Pergerakan Supertrend Tiga Kali Lipat

Ringkasan

Triple overtrend breakout strategi adalah strategi yang lebih umum menggunakan overtrend rata-rata dengan beberapa pengaturan parameter yang berbeda dan defines trend EMA untuk mengidentifikasi arah tren dan melakukan perdagangan. Gagasan utama dari strategi ini adalah untuk membangun overhead ketika setidaknya dua overtrend rata-rata garis di atas garis EMA defines tren besar dalam keadaan kosong; untuk membangun overhead ketika setidaknya dua overtrend rata-rata garis di bawah garis EMA defines tren besar dalam keadaan kosong.

Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini menilai posisi terdepan dan terdepan dengan menetapkan garis rata-rata supertrend dengan tiga parameter berbeda, dan EMA yang mendefinisikan arah tren besar:

  1. Tetapkan tiga garis supertrend supertrend1, supertrend2, supertrend3, warna hijau menunjukkan tren naik, warna merah menunjukkan tren turun.

  2. Setting an EMA smooth moving average ematrend to define the big trend, when the three supertrending averages are all above the EMA is defined as a big spread overhead, and vice versa is defined as an overhead.

  3. Ketika setidaknya dua garis rata-rata supertrend pada saat yang sama ditampilkan di atas piringan besar, maka nilai arah yang lebih kecil dari 0 dinilai sebagai sinyal multihead. Ketika setidaknya dua garis rata-rata supertrend pada saat yang sama ditampilkan di atas piringan besar, maka nilai arah yang lebih besar dari 0 dinilai sebagai sinyal kosong.

  4. Setelah itu, buka posisi di saat sinyal keluar.

  5. Setting stop loss stop loss condition. Di mana stop loss yang tetap ditetapkan sebagai tingkat pengembalian risiko, yaitu tingkat pengembalian kerugian 3, dan stop loss yang bergerak ditetapkan sebagai penurunan satu ATR atau stop loss.

  6. Ketika kondisi Stop Loss atau Stop Stop dipicu, posisi ditutup.

Analisis Keunggulan

Strategi ini memiliki keuntungan sebagai berikut:

  1. EMA menggunakan garis rata-rata super tiga untuk menentukan tren, sehingga dapat mengidentifikasi sinyal tren secara efektif.

  2. Aturan penilaian kondisional multispace jelas, mudah dimengerti dan diterapkan.

  3. Pengaturan stop loss bergerak dan stop stop tetap, pengendalian risiko yang efektif.

  4. Hal ini dapat disesuaikan dengan parameter hyper yang diperlukan untuk mengoptimalkan strategi.

Analisis risiko

Strategi ini juga memiliki beberapa risiko:

  1. Tetapan parameter hyper yang tidak tepat dapat menyebabkan kehilangan peluang perdagangan yang baik. Anda dapat menguji siklus ATR yang berbeda, perkalian ATR, parameter siklus EMA.

  2. Probabilitas kegagalan penembusan ada, dapat dikurangi dengan menyesuaikan parameter super.

  3. Stop loss atau stop loss yang terlalu longgar akan meningkatkan probabilitas kerugian.

  4. Data retesting mudah menimbulkan masalah over-fit. Perlu diperhatikan tes multi-pasar multi-siklus.

Arah optimasi

Strategi ini dapat dioptimalkan dalam beberapa hal:

  1. Tes kombinasi optimal hyperparameter. Anda dapat melakukan tes kombinasi dengan berbagai siklus ATR, ATR kali, dan siklus rata-rata EMA untuk menemukan kombinasi optimal.

  2. Tambahkan varietas transaksi. Anda dapat menambahkan varietas yang berbeda seperti saham, mata uang digital, dan lain-lain untuk memverifikasi efektivitas strategi.

  3. Dalam kombinasi dengan indikator lain, sinyal filter dapat ditambahkan. Misalnya, indikator seperti RSI, MACD dapat ditambahkan untuk menghindari kesalahan membaca sinyal tren.

  4. Mengoptimalkan mekanisme stop loss. Anda dapat menguji cara stop loss yang dilacak, atau stop loss berdasarkan perubahan ATR / volatilitas.

Meringkaskan

Triple Overtrend Equilibrium Breakout Strategy secara keseluruhan merupakan strategi pelacakan tren yang relatif sederhana dan praktis. Ini menggabungkan beberapa overtrend equilibrium dan trend judgment EMA untuk menemukan peluang dan mengendalikan risiko secara efektif. Dengan optimasi parameter dan optimasi aturan, efek yang lebih baik dapat diperoleh.

Kode Sumber Strategi
/*backtest
start: 2022-12-14 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-20 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// @version=5
// author=theasgard and moonshot-indicator (ms)
// year 2021
//
// This is a well knowen strategy by using 3 different Supertrends and a trend-defining EMA,
// feel free to play around with the settings, a backtest on 8h ETHUSDT pair brought some good results using 
// the 233EMA and investing 75% of a 10k start capital
//
// the idea is to have at least 2 supertrnds going green above the trend-EMA to go long and exit by turning 
// 2 supertrends red (idea: 1 supertrend in red could initialize a take profit)
// shorts work vice versa
// The EMA shows in green for uptrends and in red for downtrends, if it is blue no Signal will be taken because 
// the 3 supertrends are not all above or below the trendline(EMA)
//
// Update 1:
// Fixed a minor input error
// Added ATR stoploss, and commented out the percentage stop loss
// Added time window to backtest
// Added exit on risk/revard is met
// This version is only buy...wait for next update adding shorts

strategy("ms hypertrender", overlay=true)

// set up 3 supertrendlines and colour the direction up/down
atrPeriod1 = input(10, "ATR Length 1")
factor1 = input.float(1.0, "ATR Factor 1", step = 0.01)
[supertrend1, direction1] = ta.supertrend(factor1, atrPeriod1)
upTrend1 = plot(direction1 < 0 ? supertrend1 : na, "Up Trend 1", color = color.green, style=plot.style_linebr)
downTrend1 = plot(direction1 < 0? na : supertrend1, "Down Trend 1", color = color.red, style=plot.style_linebr)

atrPeriod2 = input(11, "ATR Length 2")
factor2 = input.float(2.0, "ATR Factor 2", step = 0.01)
[supertrend2, direction2] = ta.supertrend(factor2, atrPeriod2)
upTrend2 = plot(direction2 < 0 ? supertrend2 : na, "Up Trend 2", color = color.green, style=plot.style_linebr)
downTrend2 = plot(direction2 < 0? na : supertrend2, "Down Trend 2", color = color.red, style=plot.style_linebr)

atrPeriod3 = input(12, "ATR Length 3")
factor3 = input.float(3.0, "ATR Factor 3", step = 0.01)
[supertrend3, direction3] = ta.supertrend(factor3, atrPeriod3)
upTrend3 = plot(direction3 < 0 ? supertrend3 : na, "Up Trend 3", color = color.green, style=plot.style_linebr)
downTrend3 = plot(direction3 < 0? na : supertrend3, "Down Trend 3", color = color.red, style=plot.style_linebr)

//set up the trend dividing EMA and color uptrend nutreal downtrend
len = input.int(233, minval=1, title="Trend-EMA Length")
src = input(close, title="Source")
offset = input.int(title="Offset", defval=0, minval=-500, maxval=500)

//general Bull or Bear Trend? Visualized by ema
ematrend = ta.ema(src, len)
generaluptrend = supertrend1 > ematrend and supertrend2 > ematrend and supertrend3 > ematrend
generaldowntrend = supertrend1 < ematrend and supertrend2 < ematrend and supertrend3 < ematrend
emacolor = if generaluptrend
    color.green
else if generaldowntrend
    color.red
else
    color.blue
plot(ematrend, title="EMA", color=emacolor, linewidth=3, offset=offset)

// Bullish? min 2 supertrends green
bullish = (direction1 < 0 and direction2 < 0) or (direction1 < 0 and direction3 < 0) or (direction2 < 0 and direction3 < 0) and generaluptrend
extremebullish = direction1 < 0 and direction2 < 0 and direction3 < 0 and generaluptrend //all 3 green

// Bearish? min 2 supertrends red
bearish = (direction1 > 0 and direction2 > 0) or (direction1 > 0 and direction3 > 0) or (direction2 > 0 and direction3 > 0) and generaldowntrend
extremebearish = direction1 > 0 and direction2 > 0 and direction3 > 0 and generaldowntrend //all 3 red

// Open Long
//plotchar(((bullish and not bullish[1]) or (extremebullish and not extremebullish[1])) and (emacolor==color.green)? close : na, title = 'Start Long', char='▲', color = #80eb34, location = location.belowbar, size = size.small)

// TP 10% Long
TP10long = ((generaluptrend and bullish[1]) or (generaluptrend and extremebullish[1])) and (direction1 > 0 or direction2 > 0 or direction3 > 0)
//plotchar(TP10long and not TP10long[1]? close : na, title = 'TP on Long', char='┼', color = #ffd000, location = location.abovebar, size = size.tiny)

// Exit Long
//plotchar(extremebearish and not extremebearish[1] or bearish and not bearish[1]? close : na, title = 'Close all Longs', char='Ꭓ', color = #ff0037, location = location.abovebar, size = size.tiny)
stopsupertrendup = if supertrend1 < supertrend2 and supertrend1 < supertrend3
    (supertrend1)
else if supertrend2 < supertrend1 and supertrend2 < supertrend3
    (supertrend2)
else if supertrend3 < supertrend1 and supertrend3 < supertrend2
    (supertrend3)
lowestLows = ta.lowest(low, 1)
// Open Short
//plotchar(((bearish and not bearish[1]) or (extremebearish and not extremebearish[1])) and (emacolor==color.red)? close : na, title = 'Start Short', char='▼', color = #0547e3, location = location.abovebar, size = size.small)

// TP 10% Short
TP10short = ((generaldowntrend and bearish[1]) or (generaldowntrend and extremebearish[1])) and (direction1 < 0 or direction2 < 0 or direction3 < 0)
//plotchar(TP10short and not TP10short[1]? close : na, title = 'TP on Short', char='┼', color = #ffd000, location = location.belowbar, size = size.tiny)

// Exit Short
//plotchar(extremebullish and not extremebullish[1] or bullish and not bullish[1]? close : na, title = 'Close all Shorts', char='Ꭓ', color = #ff0037, location = location.belowbar, size = size.tiny)
stopsupertrenddown = if supertrend1 > supertrend2 and supertrend1 > supertrend3
    (supertrend1)
else if supertrend2 > supertrend1 and supertrend2 > supertrend3
    (supertrend2)
else if supertrend3 > supertrend1 and supertrend3 > supertrend2
    (supertrend3)
highestHighs = ta.highest(high,1)
// Set stop loss level with input options (optional)
//longLossPerc = input.float(title="Long Stop Loss (%)",
//     minval=0.0, step=0.1, defval=1) * 0.01

//shortLossPerc = input.float(title="Short Stop Loss (%)",
//     minval=0.0, step=0.1, defval=1) * 0.01
     
// Determine stop loss price
//longStopPrice  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - longLossPerc)
//shortStopPrice = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + shortLossPerc)

openlong = (extremebullish and not extremebullish[1]) and (emacolor==color.green)//(((bullish and not bullish[1]) or 
openshort = (extremebearish and not extremebearish[1]) and (emacolor==color.red)//(((bearish and not bearish[1]) or 
exitlong = lowestLows<(stopsupertrendup - ((stopsupertrendup / 100) * 0.1)) //(extremebearish and not extremebearish[1] or bearish and not bearish[1]) or TP10long or 
exitshort = highestHighs>(stopsupertrenddown - ((stopsupertrenddown / 100) * 0.1)) //(extremebullish and not extremebullish[1] or bullish and not bullish[1]) or TP10short
//strategy.entry("buy", strategy.long, when=openlong)
//strategy.entry("sell", strategy.short, when=openshort)

//strategy.close("buy", when=exitlong)
//strategy.close("sell", when=exitshort)

// Submit exit orders based on calculated stop loss price
//if (strategy.position_size > 0)
//    strategy.exit(id="Long Stop", stop=longStopPrice)

//if (strategy.position_size < 0)
//    strategy.exit(id="Short Stop", stop=shortStopPrice)

backtest_timeframe_start = input(defval = timestamp("01 Apr 2016 13:30 +0000"), title = "Backtest Start Time")
USE_ENDTIME = input(false,title="Define the ending period for backtests (If false, will test up to most recent candle)")
backtest_timeframe_end = input(defval = timestamp("19 Mar 2021 19:30 +0000"), title = "Backtest End Time")
TARGET_PROFIT_MODE = input(false,title="Exit when Risk:Reward met")
REWARD_RATIO = input(3,title="Risk:[Reward] (i.e. 3) for exit")
// Trailing stop loss {
TSL_ON = input(true,title="Use trailing stop loss")
var entry_price = float(0)
ATR_multi_len = 26
ATR_multi = input(2, "ATR multiplier for stop loss")
ATR_buffer = ta.atr(ATR_multi_len) * ATR_multi
plotchar(ATR_buffer, "ATR Buffer", "A", location = location.top)
risk_reward_buffer = (ta.atr(ATR_multi_len) * ATR_multi) * REWARD_RATIO
take_profit_long = low > entry_price + risk_reward_buffer
take_profit_short = low < entry_price - risk_reward_buffer
var trailing_SL_buffer = float(0)
var stop_loss_price = float(0)
stop_loss_price := math.max(stop_loss_price, close - trailing_SL_buffer)
// plot TSL line
trail_profit_line_color = color.green
if strategy.position_size == 0  or not TSL_ON
    trail_profit_line_color := color.black
    stop_loss_price := close - trailing_SL_buffer
plot(stop_loss_price,color=trail_profit_line_color)
// }

if true
    buy_condition = openlong
    exit_condition = exitlong
    //ENTRY:
    if buy_condition
        if strategy.position_size == 0
            entry_price := close
            trailing_SL_buffer := ATR_buffer
            stop_loss_price := close - ATR_buffer
        
        msg = "entry"
        if strategy.position_size > 0
            msg := "pyramiding"
        strategy.entry("Long",strategy.long, comment=msg)

    //EXIT:
    // Case (A) hits trailing stop
    if TSL_ON and strategy.position_size > 0 and close <= stop_loss_price
        if close > entry_price
            strategy.close("Long", comment="take profit [trailing]")
        else if close <= entry_price 
            strategy.close("Long", comment="stop loss")
    // Case (B) take targeted profit relative to risk 
    if strategy.position_size > 0 and TARGET_PROFIT_MODE
        if take_profit_long
            strategy.close("Long", comment="take profits [risk:reward]")
    // Case (C)
    if strategy.position_size > 0 and exit_condition
        if take_profit_long
            strategy.close("Long", comment="exit[rsi]")