Tren Mengikuti Strategi Berdasarkan RSI dan Rata-rata Bergerak Bertimbang

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2023-12-25 13:28:24
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Gambaran umum

Strategi ini didasarkan pada dua indikator yang terkenal: Relative Strength Index (RSI) dan Weighted Moving Average (WMA). Ini mengidentifikasi tren pasar dan mengikuti arahnya. RSI menilai tingkat overbought / oversold, WMA menentukan tren harga. Kombinasi keduanya dapat menyaring sinyal yang tidak relevan secara efektif dan meningkatkan profitabilitas. Ini adalah strategi jangka menengah / panjang, ditambah dengan metode manajemen uang untuk menyesuaikan ukuran posisi berdasarkan keuntungan / kerugian.

Logika Strategi

Indikator RSI

RSI adalah salah satu indikator overbought/oversold yang paling terkenal.

$$RSI = 100 - \frac{100}{1+\frac{AvgGain}{AvgLoss}}$$

Di mana AvgGain adalah rata-rata hari yang ditutup di atas terbuka selama x hari terakhir, AvgLoss adalah rata-rata nilai absolut hari yang ditutup di bawah terbuka selama x hari terakhir.

Strategi ini menetapkan periode RSI sebagai 20 untuk menilai tren. RSI di atas 60 menghasilkan sinyal panjang, RSI di bawah 40 menghasilkan sinyal pendek.

Rata-rata bergerak tertimbang (WMA)

Dibandingkan dengan SMA, WMA mempertimbangkan harga terbaru lebih berat.

$$WMA = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^n w_i x_i}$

Di mana w adalah berat, w tumbuh secara eksponensial dengan meningkatnya i. Strategi ini menggunakan rumus berat berikut:

$$w = \begin{cases} 100/(4+(n-4)1.3), & i <= 3 \ 1.3w, & i > 3 \end{cases}$$

Artinya beratnya sama dalam 3 hari terakhir, dan tumbuh 1,3 kali setiap 1 hari ke belakang.

Panjang WMA dalam strategi ini adalah 20.

Sinyal Strategi

Sinyal panjang: RSI > 60 dan ROC 20 hari WMA < -1 Sinyal pendek: RSI < 40 dan ROC 20 hari WMA > 1

Di mana ROC 20 hari dari WMA dihitung sebagai:

$$ROC = (WMA_{today}/WMA_{20_days_ago} - 1) \ kali 100$$

Keuntungan

  • Gunakan RSI untuk menentukan arah tren, menghindari kehilangan uang di pasar whipsaw
  • WMA mempertimbangkan harga terbaru untuk mengurangi kebisingan dan mengidentifikasi tren utama
  • Kombinasi RSI dan WMA ROC menyaring sinyal yang tidak relevan
  • Multiple ATR trailing take-profit, take-profit fleksibel
  • Manajemen uang menyesuaikan ukuran posisi berdasarkan keuntungan/kerugian, mengendalikan risiko

Risiko

  • Pengaturan parameter yang tidak benar dapat meningkatkan frekuensi perdagangan
  • Pengaturan stop loss yang tidak tepat dapat memperluas kerugian
  • Sebagai tren mengikuti strategi, tidak cocok untuk pasar yang terikat rentang
  • Perhatikan perubahan lingkungan makro, campur tangan manual jika perlu

Arah Peningkatan

  • Uji panjang RSI, panjang WMA, ambang ROC untuk menemukan set parameter optimal
  • Uji metode manajemen uang yang berbeda untuk menemukan rencana penyesuaian posisi terbaik
  • Tambahkan indikator lain untuk penyaringan sinyal lebih lanjut
  • Menggabungkan strategi stop loss untuk membatasi risiko kerugian per perdagangan
  • Mengoptimalkan mengambil strategi keuntungan untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan selama tren

Kesimpulan

Strategi ini menggabungkan RSI dan WMA untuk menentukan arah tren, bertujuan untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dari tren utama dalam jangka menengah / panjang. manajemen uang dan strategi mengambil keuntungan juga digunakan untuk mengendalikan risiko. Ini memiliki nilai praktis tetapi pengaturan parameter dan mekanisme stop loss membutuhkan pengujian dan optimalisasi terus menerus untuk hasil yang lebih baik. investor harus menilai situasi, campur tangan secara manual jika perlu, dan memastikan risiko yang dapat dikendalikan.


/*backtest
start: 2022-12-24 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-06 05:20:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © gsanson66


//This code is based on RSI and a backed weighted MA
//@version=5
strategy("RSI + MA BACKTESTING", overlay=true, initial_capital=1000, default_qty_type=strategy.fixed, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.18, slippage=3)


//------------------------TOOL TIPS---------------------------//

t1 = "Choice between a Standard MA (SMA) or a backed-weighted MA (RWMA) which permits to minimize the impact of short term reversal. Default is RWMA."
t2 = "Value of RSI to send a LONG or a SHORT signal. RSI above 60 is a LONG signal and RSI below 40 is a SHORT signal."
t3 = "Rate of Change Value of selected MA to send a LONG or a SHORT signal. By default : ROC MA below -1 is a LONG signal and ROC MA above 1 is a SHORT signal"
t4 = "Threshold value to trigger trailing Take Profit. This threshold is calculated as a multiple of the ATR (Average True Range)."
t5 = "Percentage value of trailing Take Profit. This Trailing TP follows the profit if it increases, remaining selected percentage below it, but stops if the profit decreases."
t6 = "Each gain or losse (relative to the previous reference) in an amount equal to this fixed ratio will change quantity of orders."
t7 = "The amount of money to be added to or subtracted from orders once the fixed ratio has been reached."


//------------------------FUNCTIONS---------------------------//

//@function which calculate a retro weighted moving average to minimize the impact of short term reversal
rwma(source, length) =>
    sum = 0.0
    denominator = 0.0
    weight = 0.0
    weight_x = 100/(4+(length-4)*1.30)
    weight_y = 1.30*weight_x
    for i=0 to length - 1
        if i <= 3
            weight := weight_x
        else
            weight := weight_y
        sum := sum + source[i] * weight
        denominator := denominator + weight
    rwma = sum/denominator

//@function which permits the user to choose a moving average type
ma(source, length, type) =>
    switch type
        "SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)
        "RWMA" => rwma(source, length)

//@function Displays text passed to `txt` when called.
debugLabel(txt, color) =>
    label.new(bar_index, high, text = txt, color=color, style = label.style_label_lower_right, textcolor = color.black, size = size.small)

//@function which looks if the close date of the current bar falls inside the date range
inBacktestPeriod(start, end) => (time >= start) and (time <= end)


//--------------------------------USER INPUTS-------------------------------//

//Technical parameters
rsiLengthInput = input.int(20, minval=1, title="RSI Length", group="RSI Settings")
maTypeInput = input.string("RWMA", title="MA Type", options=["SMA", "RWMA"], group="MA Settings", inline="1", tooltip=t1)
maLenghtInput = input.int(20, minval=1, title="MA Length", group="MA Settings", inline="1")
rsiLongSignalValue = input.int(60, minval=1, maxval=99, title="RSI Long Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="3")
rsiShortSignalValue = input.int(40, minval=1, maxval=99, title="RSI Short Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="3", tooltip=t2)
rocMovAverLongSignalValue = input.float(-1, maxval=0, title="ROC MA Long Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="4")
rocMovAverShortSignalValue = input.float(1, minval=0, title="ROC MA Short Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="4", tooltip=t3)
//TP Activation and Trailing TP
takeProfitActivationInput = input.float(5, minval=1.0, title="TP activation in multiple of ATR", group="Strategy parameters", tooltip=t4)
trailingStopInput = input.float(3, minval=0, title="Trailing TP in percentage", group="Strategy parameters", tooltip=t5)
//Money Management
fixedRatio = input.int(defval=400, minval=1, title="Fixed Ratio Value ($)", group="Money Management", tooltip=t6)
increasingOrderAmount = input.int(defval=200, minval=1, title="Increasing Order Amount ($)", group="Money Management", tooltip=t7)
//Backtesting period
startDate = input(title="Start Date", defval=timestamp("1 Jan 2018 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period")
endDate = input(title="End Date", defval=timestamp("1 July 2024 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period")


//------------------------------VARIABLES INITIALISATION-----------------------------//

float rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLengthInput)
float ma = ma(close, maLenghtInput, maTypeInput)
float roc_ma = ((ma/ma[maLenghtInput]) - 1)*100
float atr = ta.atr(20)
var float trailingStopOffset = na
var float trailingStopActivation = na
var float trailingStop = na
var float stopLoss = na
var bool long = na
var bool short = na
var bool bufferTrailingStopDrawing = na
float theoreticalStopPrice = na
bool inRange = na
equity = math.abs(strategy.equity - strategy.openprofit)
strategy.initial_capital = 50000
var float capital_ref = strategy.initial_capital
var float cashOrder = strategy.initial_capital * 0.95


//------------------------------CHECKING SOME CONDITIONS ON EACH SCRIPT EXECUTION-------------------------------//

//Checking if the date belong to the range
inRange := true

//Checking performances of the strategy
if equity > capital_ref + fixedRatio
    spread = (equity - capital_ref)/fixedRatio
    nb_level = int(spread)
    increasingOrder = nb_level * increasingOrderAmount
    cashOrder := cashOrder + increasingOrder
    capital_ref := capital_ref + nb_level*fixedRatio
if equity < capital_ref - fixedRatio
    spread = (capital_ref - equity)/fixedRatio
    nb_level = int(spread)
    decreasingOrder = nb_level * increasingOrderAmount
    cashOrder := cashOrder - decreasingOrder
    capital_ref := capital_ref - nb_level*fixedRatio

//Checking if we close all trades in case where we exit the backtesting period
if strategy.position_size!=0 and not inRange
    debugLabel("END OF BACKTESTING PERIOD : we close the trade", color=color.rgb(116, 116, 116))
    strategy.close_all()
    bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na
    trailingStop := na
    short := false
    long := false


//------------------------------STOP LOSS AND TRAILING STOP ACTIVATION----------------------------//

// We handle the stop loss and trailing stop activation 
if (low <= stopLoss or high >= trailingStopActivation) and long
    if high >= trailingStopActivation
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := true
    else if low <= stopLoss
        long := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na
if (low <= trailingStopActivation or high >= stopLoss) and short
    if low <= trailingStopActivation
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := true
    else if high >= stopLoss
        short := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na


//-------------------------------------TRAILING STOP--------------------------------------//

// If the traling stop is activated, we manage its plotting with the bufferTrailingStopDrawing
if bufferTrailingStopDrawing and long
    theoreticalStopPrice := high - trailingStopOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if na(trailingStop)
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if theoreticalStopPrice > trailingStop
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if low <= trailingStop
        trailingStop := na
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        long := false
if bufferTrailingStopDrawing and short
    theoreticalStopPrice := low + trailingStopOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if na(trailingStop)
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if theoreticalStopPrice < trailingStop
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if high >= trailingStop
        trailingStop := na
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        short := false


//---------------------------------LONG CONDITION--------------------------//

if rsi >= 60 and roc_ma <= rocMovAverLongSignalValue and inRange and not long
    if short
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        stopLoss := na
        trailingStopActivation := na
        trailingStop := na
        short := false
    trailingStopActivation := close + takeProfitActivationInput*atr
    trailingStopOffset := (trailingStopActivation * trailingStopInput/100) / syminfo.mintick
    stopLoss := close - 3*atr
    long := true
    qty = cashOrder/close
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long", "Long", stop = stopLoss, trail_price = trailingStopActivation,
                 trail_offset = trailingStopOffset)


//--------------------------------SHORT CONDITION-------------------------------//

if rsi <= 40 and roc_ma >= rocMovAverShortSignalValue and inRange and not short
    if long
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        stopLoss := na
        trailingStopActivation := na
        trailingStop := na
        long := false
    trailingStopActivation := close - takeProfitActivationInput*atr
    trailingStopOffset := (trailingStopActivation * trailingStopInput/100) / syminfo.mintick
    stopLoss := close + 3*atr
    short := true
    qty = cashOrder/close
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty)
    strategy.exit("Exit Short", "Short", stop = stopLoss, trail_price = trailingStopActivation,
                 trail_offset = trailingStopOffset)


//--------------------------------PLOTTING ELEMENT---------------------------------//

// Plotting of element in the graph
plotchar(rsi, "RSI", "", location.top, color.rgb(0, 214, 243))
plot(ma, "MA", color.rgb(219, 219, 18))
plotchar(roc_ma, "ROC MA", "", location.top, color=color.orange)
// Visualizer trailing stop and stop loss movement
plot(stopLoss, "SL", color.red, 3, plot.style_linebr)
plot(trailingStopActivation, "Trigger Trail", color.green, 3, plot.style_linebr)
plot(trailingStop, "Trailing Stop",  color.blue, 3, plot.style_linebr)


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