Pola Candlestick Perdagangan Kuantitatif dan Strategi Mengikuti Tren
ChaoZhang
Ringkasan
Strategi ini diberi nama Quantitative Trading Patterns and Trend Following Strategies. Strategi ini menggabungkan analisis patterns dan ide-ide strategi untuk trend-following.
Strategi ini dilakukan dengan mengidentifikasi berbagai bentuk pivot, menilai posisi kosong pasar saat ini, dan kemungkinan titik balik. Dengan menggabungkan pelacakan harga tertinggi dan terendah, membentuk sinyal masuk dan keluar untuk menangkap tren harga garis tengah dan panjang.
Prinsip Strategi
Strategi ini terdiri dari beberapa modul:
- Penghakiman bentuk
Strategi ini pertama-tama mendefinisikan unsur-unsur seperti entitas, garis bayangan, dan lain-lain, dan menetapkan beberapa parameter untuk mengidentifikasi lebih dari 40 bentuk bintang yang umum seperti bintang salib, bintang terang, dan ketinggian tiga dalam. Ketika bentuk-bentuk ini diidentifikasi, mereka akan ditandai dan dinilai sebagai sinyal multihead atau kosong.
- Pengadilan tren
Strategi ini menggunakan harga tertinggi dan harga terendah untuk melacak tren, naik ketika harga melebihi harga tertinggi dalam N hari, dan turun saat harga di bawah harga terendah dalam N hari.
- Masuk dan keluar
Sinyal-sinyal polygonal berdasarkan penilaian bentuk pivot, yang digabungkan dengan penembusan harga tertinggi dan terendah dalam penilaian tren, membentuk aturan masuk dan keluar.
Sebagai contoh, ketika identifikasi ke bentuk multi-headed tangle seperti garis-garis kelingking, dan harga melebihi harga tertinggi N hari, melakukan lebih banyak; ketika harga jatuh di bawah harga terendah N hari, meratakan lebih banyak.
- Pengaturan jangkauan
Strategi akhirnya menyelesaikan lingkaran tertutup dari keseluruhan logika strategi dengan mengatur waktu mulai dan berhenti dari pengembalian.
Analisis Keunggulan
Strategi ini memiliki beberapa keuntungan:
- Kombinasi bentuk dan tren
Menggunakan keuntungan dari pengertian bentuk pivot dan kombinasi pelacakan tren, Anda dapat menilai kemungkinan titik balik harga melalui bentuk dan juga menentukan waktu masuk melalui tren.
- Identifikasi bermacam-macam
Strategi ini mencakup identifikasi lebih dari 40 bentuk pivot yang umum, memiliki cakupan yang luas, dan dapat mengidentifikasi lebih banyak peluang perdagangan potensial dalam lingkungan pasar yang berbeda.
- Kemampuan penyesuaian parameter tinggi
Parameter dalam strategi, seperti pelacakan hari, parameter untuk mengidentifikasi bentuk, dapat disesuaikan secara mandiri, beradaptasi, dan lebih mudah disesuaikan untuk pasar tertentu.
- Mudah diperluas
Modul identifikasi bentuk dapat diperluas secara langsung ke logika yang ada, atau dapat menambahkan modul penilaian faktor untuk terus mengoptimalkan efek strategi.
Analisis risiko
Strategi ini juga memiliki risiko sebagai berikut:
- Akurasi pengenalan bentuk tidak 100%
Pertimbangan bentuk pivot tidak sepenuhnya akurat, masih ada probabilitas misidentifikasi tertentu, kemungkinan terjadi situasi di mana sinyal perdagangan dipicu secara salah.
- Kurangnya modul stop loss
Strategi saat ini tidak memiliki logika stop loss, sehingga tidak dapat mengontrol kerugian tunggal secara efektif. Jika penilaian tren gagal, akun dapat mengalami kerugian yang lebih besar.
- Risiko pencocokan data
Efek strategi saat ini mungkin ada beberapa penyesuaian pada data dalam interval pengukuran, dan kinerja di real mungkin akan menurun.
Arah optimasi
Strategi ini memiliki beberapa optimasi utama, yaitu:
- Tambahkan modul Stop Loss
Menambahkan strategi stop loss seperti stop loss mobile, stop loss persen, dan lain-lain, dapat secara efektif mengendalikan risiko dan membatasi kerugian maksimum tunggal.
- Pembelajaran Mesin untuk Peningkatan Akurasi Persepsi Bentuk
Model pelatihan menggunakan algoritma pembelajaran mesin untuk meningkatkan akurasi penilaian bentuk kerucut dan mengurangi tingkat sinyal yang salah.
- Verifikasi Multi-Pasar
Tes strategi robust di pasar yang lebih luas, seperti pasar valuta asing dan mata uang digital, untuk mencegah kecocokan data retrospektif.
- Menggabungkan lebih banyak faktor
Faktor kuantitatif yang lebih banyak dapat diperkenalkan, seperti indikator harga kuantitatif, indikator aliran uang, dan lain-lain, yang memperkaya logika strategi dan meningkatkan stabilitas.
Meringkaskan
Secara keseluruhan, strategi ini, dikombinasikan dengan penilaian konotasi dan perdagangan pelacakan tren, dapat menangkap tren harga sekaligus menilai titik balik pasar, dan mencapai keuntungan tambahan. Ada ruang yang lebih besar untuk mengoptimalkan strategi, dan dapat ditingkatkan dari pengendalian risiko, pembelajaran mesin, dan faktor-faktor lainnya, sehingga strategi lebih kuat dan bernilai bisnis.
/*backtest
start: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-31 23:59:59
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/
//@version=3
strategy("Candle analysis & long/short strategy (HF) inspired by TurtleBC", shorttitle="TurtleBC-V.Troussel", overlay=true,initial_capital=1000)
//VARIABLES
body=close-open
range=high-low
middle=(open+close)/2
abody=abs(body)
ratio=abody/range
longcandle= (ratio>0.6)
bodytop=max(open, close)
bodybottom=min(open, close)
shadowtop=high-bodytop
shadowbottom=bodybottom-low
//Doji
DojiSize = input(0.05, minval=0.01, title="Doji size")
data=(abs(open - close) <= (high - low) * DojiSize)
plotchar(data, title="Doji", text='Doji', color=black)
//BULLISH SIGNALS
//Homing Pigeon
HomingPigeon=(body[1]<0 and body<0 and longcandle[1] and bodybottom>bodybottom[1] and bodytop<bodytop[1])
plotshape(HomingPigeon, title= "Homing Pigeon", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Homing\nPigeon")
//Dragonfly Doji Bottom
DragonflyDojiBottom=(body[1]<0 and longcandle[1] and low<low[1] and shadowbottom>3*abody and shadowtop<shadowbottom/3)
plotshape(DragonflyDojiBottom, title= "Dragonfly Doji Bottom", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Dragonfly\nDoji\nBottom")
//Concealing Baby Swallow
ConcealingBabySwallow=(body[3]<0 and body[2]<0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and ratio[3]>0.8 and ratio[2]>0.8 and ratio>0.8 and open[1]<close[2] and high[1]>close[2] and shadowtop[1]>0.6*(abody[1]+shadowbottom[1]) and bodybottom<bodybottom[1] and bodytop>high[1])
plotshape(ConcealingBabySwallow, title= "Concealing Baby Swallow", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Concealing\nBaby\nSwallow")
//Gravestone Doji Bottom
GravestoneDojiBottom=(body[1]<0 and longcandle[1] and low<low[1] and shadowtop>3*abody and shadowbottom<shadowtop/3)
plotshape(GravestoneDojiBottom, title= "Gravestone Doji Bottom", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Gravestone\nDoji\nBottom")
//Last Engulfing Bottom
LastEngulfingBottom=(body[1]>0 and body<0 and bodybottom<bodybottom[1] and bodytop>bodytop[1] and longcandle)
plotshape(LastEngulfingBottom, title= "Last Engulfing Bottom", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Last\nEngulfing\nBottom")
//Bullish Harami Cross
BullishHaramiCross=(body[1]<0 and longcandle[1] and bodybottom>bodybottom[1] and bodytop<bodytop[1] and ratio<0.3 and range<0.3*range[1])
plotshape(BullishHaramiCross, title= "Bullish Harami Cross", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Bullish\nHarami\nCross")
//Three Stars in the South
ThreeStarsInTheSouth=(body[2]<0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and shadowtop[2]<range[2]/4 and shadowbottom[2]>abody[2]/2 and low[1]>low[2] and high[1]<high[2] and abody[1]<abody[2] and shadowtop[1]<range[1]/4 and shadowbottom[1]>abody[1]/2 and low>low[1] and high<high[1] and abody<abody[1] and shadowtop<range/4 and shadowbottom<range/4)
plotshape(ThreeStarsInTheSouth, title= "Three Stars In TheSouth", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Three\nStars\nIn\nThe\nSouth")
//Bullish Breakaway
BullishBreakaway=(body[4]<0 and body[3]<0 and body>0 and open[3]<close[4] and close[2]<close[3] and close[1]<close[2] and longcandle and close<close[4] and close>open[3])
plotshape(BullishBreakaway, title= "Bullish Breakaway", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Bullish\nBreakaway")
//Hammer
Hammer=(body[1]<0 and longcandle[1] and low<low[1] and shadowbottom>2*abody and shadowtop<0.3*abody)
plotshape(Hammer, title= "Hammer", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Hammer")
//Inverted Hammer
InvertedHammer=(body[1]<0 and longcandle[1] and low<low[1] and shadowtop>2*abody and shadowbottom<0.3*abody)
plotshape(InvertedHammer, title= "Inverted Hammer", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Inverted\nHammer")
//Rising Three Methods
RisingThreeMethods=(body[4]>0 and body[3]<0 and body[1]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[4] and longcandle and close[2]<close[3] and close[1]<close[2] and high[2]<high[3] and high[1]<high[2] and low[1]>low[4] and open>close[1] and close>high[4] and close>high[3] and close>high[2] and close>high[1])
plotshape(RisingThreeMethods, title= "Rising Three Methods", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Rising\nThree\nMethods")
//BullishThreeLineStrike
BullishThreeLineStrike=(body[3]>0 and body[2]>0 and body[1]>0 and body<0 and longcandle[3] and longcandle[2] and longcandle[1] and close[2]>close[3] and close[1]>close[2] and open>close[1] and close<open[3])
plotshape(BullishThreeLineStrike, title= "Bullish Three Line Strike", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Bullish\nThreeLine\nStrike")
//Bullish Mat Hold
BullishMatHold=(body[4]>0 and body[3]<0 and body[1]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[4] and close[3]>close[4] and close[2]<close[3] and close[1]<close[2] and high[2]<high[3] and high[1]<high[2] and low[1]>low[4] and open>close[1] and close>high[4] and close>high[3] and close>high[2] and close>high[1])
plotshape(BullishMatHold, title= "Bullish Mat Hold", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Bullish\nMat\nHold")
//Doji Star Bottom
DojiStarBottom=(body[1]<0 and longcandle[1] and low<low[1] and open<close[1] and ratio<0.3 and range<0.3*range[1])
plotshape(DojiStarBottom, title= "Doji Star Bottom", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Doji\nStar\nBottom")
//Morning Star
MorningStar=(body[2]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[2] and open[1]<close[2] and open>close[1] and ratio[1]<0.3 and abody[1]<abody[2] and abody[1]<abody and low[1]<low and low[1]<low[2] and high[1]<open[2] and high[1]<close)
plotshape(MorningStar, title= "Morning Star", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Morning\nStar")
//Abandoned Baby Bottom
AbandonedBabyBottom=(body[2]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[2] and ratio[1]<0.3 and high[1]<low[2] and high[1]<low)
plotshape(AbandonedBabyBottom, title= "Abandoned Baby Bottom", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Abandoned\nBaby\nBottom")
//Bullish Harami
BullishHarami=(body[1]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[1] and bodybottom>bodybottom[1] and bodytop<bodytop[1])
plotshape(BullishHarami, title= "Bullish Harami", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Bullish\nHarami")
//Three Inside Up
ThreeInsideUp=(body[2]<0 and body[1]>0 and body>0 and BullishHarami[1] and close>close[1])
plotshape(ThreeInsideUp, title= "Three Inside Up", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Three\nInside\nUp")
//Bullish Engulfing
BullishEngulfing=(body[1]<0 and body>0 and bodybottom<bodybottom[1] and bodytop>bodytop[1] and longcandle)
plotshape(BullishEngulfing, title= "Bullish Engulfing", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Bullish\nEngulfing")
//Piercing Line
PiercingLine=(body[1]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[1] and longcandle and open<low[1] and close>middle[1] and close<open[1])
plotshape(PiercingLine, title= "Piercing Line", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Piercing\nLine")
//Three Outside Up
ThreeOutsideUp=(body[2]<0 and body[1]>0 and body>0 and BullishEngulfing[1] and close>close[1])
plotshape(ThreeOutsideUp, title= "Three Outside Up", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Three\nOutside\nUp")
//Three White Soldiers
ThreeWhiteSoldiers=(body[2]>0 and body[1]>0 and body>0 and high[1]>high[2] and high>high[1] and close[1]>close[2] and close>close[1] and open[1]>open[2] and open[1]<close[2] and open>open[1] and open<close[1])
plotshape(ThreeWhiteSoldiers, title= "Three White Soldiers", location=location.belowbar, color=lime, style=shape.arrowup, text="Three\nWhite\nSoldiers")
//BEARISH SIGNALS
//Evening Star
EveningStar=(body[2]>0 and body<0 and longcandle[2] and open[1]>close[2] and open<close[1] and ratio[1]<0.3 and abody[1]<abody[2] and abody[1]<abody and high[1]>high and high[1]>high[2] and low[1]>open[2] and low[1]>close)
plotshape(EveningStar, title= "Evening Star", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Evening\nStar")
//Dark Cloud Cover
DarkCloudCover=(body[1]>0 and body<0 and longcandle[1] and longcandle and open>high[1] and close<middle[1] and close>open[1])
plotshape(DarkCloudCover, title= "Dark Cloud Cover", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Dark\nCloud\nCover")
//Abandoned Baby Top
AbandonedBabyTop=(body[2]>0 and body<0 and longcandle[2] and ratio[1]<0.3 and low[1]>high[2] and low[1]>high)
plotshape(AbandonedBabyTop, title= "Abandoned Baby Top", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Abandoned\nBaby\nTop")
//Bearish Harami
BearishHarami=(body[1]>0 and body<0 and longcandle[1] and bodybottom>bodybottom[1] and bodytop<bodytop[1])
plotshape(BearishHarami, title= "Bearish Harami", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Bearish\nHarami")
//Descending Hawk
DescendingHawk=(body[1]>0 and body>0 and longcandle[1] and bodybottom>bodybottom[1] and bodytop<bodytop[1])
plotshape(DescendingHawk, title= "Descending Hawk", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Descending\nHawk")
//Bearish Engulfing
BearishEngulfing=(body[1]>0 and body<0 and bodybottom<bodybottom[1] and bodytop>bodytop[1] and longcandle)
plotshape(BearishEngulfing, title= "Bearish Engulfing", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Bearish\nEngulfing")
//Gravestone Doji Top
GravestoneDojiTop=(body[1]>0 and longcandle[1] and high>high[1] and shadowtop>3*abody and shadowbottom<shadowtop/3)
plotshape(GravestoneDojiTop, title= "Gravestone Doji Top", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Gravestone\nDoji\nTop")
//Shooting Star
ShootingStar=(body[1]>0 and longcandle[1] and high>high[1] and shadowtop>2*abody and shadowbottom<0.3*abody)
plotshape(ShootingStar, title= "Shooting Star", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Shooting\nStar")
//Hanging Man
HangingMan=(body[1]>0 and longcandle[1] and high>high[1] and shadowbottom>2*abody and shadowtop<0.3*abody)
plotshape(HangingMan, title= "Hanging Man", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Hanging\nMan")
//Bearish Three Line Strike
BearishThreeLineStrike=(body[3]<0 and body[2]<0 and body[1]<0 and body>0 and longcandle[3] and longcandle[2] and longcandle[1] and close[2]<close[3] and close[1]<close[2] and open<close[1] and close>open[3])
plotshape(BearishThreeLineStrike, title= "Bearish Three Line Strike", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Bearish\nThree\nLine\nStrike")
//Falling Three Methods
FallingThreeMethods=(body[4]<0 and body[3]>0 and body[1]>0 and body<0 and longcandle[4] and longcandle and close[2]>close[3] and close[1]>close[2] and low[2]>low[3] and low[1]>low[2] and high[1]<high[4] and open<close[1] and close<low[4] and close<low[3] and close<low[2] and close<low[1])
plotshape(FallingThreeMethods, title= "Falling Three Methods", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Falling\n\nThreeMethods")
//Three Inside Down
ThreeInsideDown=(body[2]>0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and BearishHarami[1] and close<close[1])
plotshape(ThreeInsideDown, title= "Three Inside Down", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Three\nInside\nDown")
//Three Outside Down
ThreeOutsideDown=(body[2]>0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and BearishEngulfing[1] and close<close[1])
plotshape(ThreeOutsideDown, title= "Three Outside Down", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Three\nOutside\nDown")
//Three Black Crows
ThreeBlackCrows=(body[2]<0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and longcandle[2] and longcandle[1] and longcandle and low[1]<low[2] and low<low[1] and close[1]<close[2] and close<close[1] and open[1]<open[2] and open[1]>close[2] and open<open[1] and open>close[1])
plotshape(ThreeBlackCrows, title= "Three Black Crows", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Three\nBlack\nCrows")
//Upside Gap Two Crows
UpsideGapTwoCrows=(body[2]>0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and longcandle[2] and open[1]>close[2] and bodytop>bodytop[1] and bodybottom<bodybottom[1] and close>close[2])
plotshape(UpsideGapTwoCrows, title= "Upside Gap Two Crows", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Upside\nGap\nTwo\nCrows")
//Last Engulfing Top
LastEngulfingTop=(body[1]<0 and body>0 and bodybottom<bodybottom[1] and bodytop>bodytop[1] and longcandle)
plotshape(LastEngulfingTop, title= "Last Engulfing Top", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Last\nEngulfing\nTop")
//Dragonfly Doji Top
DragonflyDojiTop=(body[1]>0 and longcandle[1] and high>high[1] and shadowbottom>3*abody and shadowtop<shadowbottom/3)
plotshape(DragonflyDojiTop, title= "Dragonfly Doji Top", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Dragonfly\nDoji\nTop")
//Bearish Harami Cross
BearishHaramiCross=(body[1]>0 and longcandle[1] and bodybottom>bodybottom[1] and bodytop<bodytop[1] and ratio<0.3 and range<0.3*range[1])
plotshape(BearishHaramiCross, title= "Bearish Harami Cross", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Bearish\nHarami\nCross")
//Advance Block
AdvanceBlock=(body[2]>0 and body[1]>0 and body>0 and high[2]<high[1] and high[1]<high and open[1]>bodybottom[2] and open[1]<bodytop[2] and open>bodybottom[1] and open<bodytop[1] and abody[1]<abody[2] and abody<abody[1])
plotshape(AdvanceBlock, title= "Advance Block", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Advance\nBlock")
//Bearish Breakaway
BearishBreakaway=(body[4]>0 and body[3]>0 and body<0 and open[3]>close[4] and close[2]>close[3] and close[1]>close[2] and longcandle and close>close[4] and close<open[3])
plotshape(BearishBreakaway, title= "Bearish Breakaway", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Bearish\nBreakaway")
//Two Crows
TwoCrows=(body[2]>0 and body[1]<0 and body<0 and longcandle[2] and open[1]>close[2] and close[1]>close[2] and open<bodytop[1] and open>bodybottom[1] and close<bodytop[2] and close>bodybottom[2])
plotshape(TwoCrows, title= "Two Crows", color=red, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Two\nCrows")
// === BACKTEST RANGE ===
FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1)
FromDay = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1)
FromYear = input(defval = 2016, title = "From Year", minval = 2016)
ToMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1)
ToDay = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1)
ToYear = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 9999)
enter_fast = input(20, minval=1)
exit_fast = input(10, minval=1)
exit_fast_short=input(10,minval=1)
fastL = highest(close, enter_fast)
fastS = highest(close ,exit_fast_short)
fastLC = lowest(close, exit_fast)
//entrées et sorties pour long et short, le short utilise la sortie du long comme entrée
enterL1 = close > fastL[1]
exitL1 = close <= fastLC[1]
exitS=close>fastS[1]
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, when = enterL1 )
strategy.close("Long", when = exitL1)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, when = exitL1)
strategy.close("Short", when = exitS)